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3NT or 4 Hearts?

Playing for second place in our club's Friday Swiss, my partner and I held these approximate cards :

North
K2
Q92
KJ932
AKQ
South
Q3
K10543
Q104
432
W
N
E
S
P
1
P
1
P
2NT
P
3NT
P
P
P

As South at IMPs (30 VP scale) I assumed that 3NT was more likely to make than 4. Of course opposite partner's actual hand 3NT had no play on  spade lead while 4 required guessing the J and no defensive ruff. (West held AJx.) Matching doubletons are usually bad news at notrump, but was my assumption invalid? I could've checked back for heart support with 3, NMF. If anyone would care to post some stats or perform a simulation on South's hand opposite a balanced 18-19 with exactly 3 trumps I'd appreciate it.

I did not make this any sort of poll because I'm looking for data on the general case, not opinion, but if you feel there is anything specific about this hand that tilts the odds feel free to comment.

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