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Another Vacant Spaces Calculation

In my previous post on this topic (http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/a-vacant-spaces-calculation/) we had a nice discussion on whether or not to finesse with an eight card suit missing the jack, for example AQTxxx opposite Kx. 

Here's a hand with a seven card suit missing the jack. 

North
KQ74
AKQ106
K5
A6
South
AJ5
93
AQJ4
8543
W
N
E
S
1
P
3NT
P
4
X
4
P
7NT
?

The lead is the 10 of clubs. 

You win that and cash one heart and all the spades, followed by all the diamonds. 

At trick 1 East plays the K. East follows suit to the A and three spades then discards the 7 on the fourth spade. East then follows suit to three diamonds and discards the J on the fourth diamond. West follows suit to the A and three spades, discards the 9 on the fourth spade, then follows suit to all four diamonds.

In the three card end position you have KQT in dummy and one heart and two clubs in your hand. 

You have complete counts on the spades and diamonds and a partial count of the clubs. East is known to have started with at least four clubs to the KQJ7. Who has the missing 2? If East has it then he has a doubleton heart but if West has it then the hearts are 3-3.

What is the percentage play? Finesse or play for the drop?

What if, instead of discarding the 9, West discards a heart? Does that change your play? 

 

 

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