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Apply LoTT or not?
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South
AQ62
A1072
J5
J97
W
N
E
S
1NT
X
2
P
P
3
P
?

IMPs. X is penalty (whatever that means), 2 is to play, always 5+

At first glance this looks like an LoTT decision. W has 5-6crd , you have 2 leaving 5,5 for pard and LHO. Given that pard already has 5 in the estimate for EW is 8,5 trumps. We have 9 so a total of 17 or 18 tricks. With 18 it seems right to compete and even with 17 we do not stand to loose much as long as we escape undoubled.

At second thought there is are additional dangers, stemming from the fact that it is far from sure that hcp are more or less evenly divided. We might make only 7 tricks for down 2 doubled. 3N might be cold with a total of 16 tricks in NT plus and our WNT has kept them out of game.

All‘s well that ends well, this was the complete board:

West
J104
Q
AKQ84
KQ103
North
97
K8543
1092
862
East
K853
J96
763
A54
South
AQ62
A1072
J5
J97
W
N
E
S
1NT
X
2
P
P
3
P
P
3
P
P
P
D
3 North
NS: 0 EW: 0

I got out for down 1 undoubled, 3 makes (+1 without a -lead). At the other table the result was 3N+1 (down only on the lead of K)

Still, I keep thinking if it is right to apply LoTT in a situation like this. Different of course if you play SNT.

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