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Best line in 6
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Perhaps an easy problem, but I'm not seeing the answer.

North
AK9642
Q10
73
A72
South
73
AKJ983
AQ42
3
W
N
E
S
1
P
2
P
2
P
3
P
4
P
6
?

Opening lead is 5; East follows with J (standard signals).  This is rubber bridge, so a possible overtrick is irrelevant.  What's the best line to make?  Next page has my thoughts.

I see two reasonable lines after winning A:

a) draw trumps and duck a spade.

b) take diamond finesse.  If it wins, duck a diamond (not to go down if diamonds are 1-6), eventually ruff a diamond. If finesse loses and a trump comes back, ruff one diamond and play for a diamond-spade squeeze.

Line a) makes if spades are 3-2, presumably 68%.  Line b) makes if the diamond finesse wins or if long diamonds and long spades are in the same hand.  That's less than 50%, but if it's more than 36%, I think line b) is better.

Which one is better, and can it reasonably be worked out at the table?

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