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declarer play hand (30.5. NR.1), probability needed

Hand 1: 

North
53
A5
AJ965
AJ96
South
86
KJ7
K1087
Q1087
W
N
E
S
1
1
X
3
X
P
4
P
P
P

 

Play: A, to the K, high (count:h/l=even) to the K, club back won, A of both follow. 

How do you tackle the s? It looks like West has either 4522 with the Queen or 4612. What is more likely?

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