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Definition of a penalty double

Your partner opens 1NT (15-17) and RHO overcalls 3S (natural). Your agreement is that when the opponents overcall your partner's natural and strong NT bids (any level), your double is penalties.

When asked by the opponents what is meant by a 'penalty double' should it be:

Your contract will fail based on doubler's trump tricks plus whatever side suit tricks the 1NT opener and he can gather
I expect the contract will fail based on doubler's hcp, that when coupled with partners 15-17hcp, means we should take enough defensive tricks so your contract fails
Other (please elaborate)

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