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Double Dummy Exercise

West
98732
1085
3
KQ96
North
Q1054
J4
J76
A752
East
K6
Q6
KQ10952
1083
South
AJ
AK9732
A84
J4
W
N
E
S
2
3
P
4
P
P
P
D
4 South
NS: 0 EW: 0

Matchpoints at the local club, 3 is led to the 6, 9, A. Single dummy, it looks natural to lay down AK and then A and J, hoping to pitch two diamonds. The trouble is that it shouldn't be too hard for West to duck K if that is the winning defence. I thought the genuine chance of Kx with East was better and so led a low trump at trick 2, hoping to make 11 tricks if East was Kx xx KQ109xx xxx, or even Kx x KQ109xx xxxx. In retrospect, I'm not sure this was right. Even if West ducks J with say Kxxxx Qxx x Qxxx, we may still score a trick more than the field. On the actual lie, I confidently told partner there was no way of making.

But the computer claims 10 tricks are there. So whom are you going to trust - me or some silicon upstart? It's not too hard, but even partner took a few minutes to spot it.

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