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Dummy's Card at Trick 1?

North
Q5
AQ10
AQ62
10743
South
K7
K8753
J943
A5
W
N
E
S
P
1
1NT
2
P
2NT
P
4
P
P
P

MATCHPOINTS - West's bid shows a 4-cd suit and 5-6 cards in an unspecified minor. North's 2 was a cue bid.  We have no agreement whether lebensohl is "on" here. West (A very good player) leads the 7. I am publishing this in hopes of hearing opinions on how (if?) I can decide whether West has 5 's or 5 's? ....

If he has 5 's then the 7 is almost certainly singleton and I must play the A to make 4H.  If I play the A and he has 5 's, I will make only 8 tricks (ruff, to A, K, ruff, lose a later.

If he has 5, then I must play a small from dummy to hold my loss to 4 tricks. (ruff, to A, 2nd ruff, lose a later.

I also would welcome any constructive criticism on this analysis.  (Feel free to comment on my choice to open the hand, although that's not what I hope to get from this post)

It is an easy choice at imps, but this is matchpoints: What card do you play from Dummy at trick 1?  Please comment on why?

Please select up to 3 choices.

A
2
Other

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