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EBTC 2014 Cheating Hypothesis Testing

To test a hypothesis on a pair from the EBTC 2014.

Go to

Find the pair you are interested in. I will use BZ as the example as they are the most publicly talked about. Select the pair, you will get to something like:

This has two tables, the first table is the boards that they defend, the second table is all boards. If you are interested in a hypothesis on the play, click on the first Excel button. If you are interested in a hypothesis on bidding, skip to the second table and click on the Excel button there.

This will download a file with the pairs' names and a .xlsx extension. 

Open this file using Excel (or another spreadsheet program). You will notice that there are more columns in the Excel spreadsheet than on the web page - don't worry - these extra columns are to help you.

Look at the last column, at the moment this is column AC.

In cell AD1, enter "Tray URL"

Tray URL

In cell AE1, enter "Lead URL"

Lead URL

In cell AD2, enter a formula "=hyperlink(AB2)"   (Enter the text inside the quotes, not the quotes - same for all these inputs). I will put it all on one line so it is easy to cut and paste:


In cell AE2, enter the following


Copy cells AD2:AE2 and repeat the formula to the last row. Clicking on cells in columns AD or AE will now bring up the video at the time stamp.

I normally hide the columns I am not interested in. So for example, columns V through AC aren't useful to see so I hide them.

Now, start on your hypothesis. Let's say it is scratching the crotch. I make a new column, it will be column AF and then look at the videos and document if there is a scratching crotch or not. After you have enough entries, you can create a hypothesis.

I recommend creating a hypothesis after 20-30% of the boards and then validating the hypothesis with the rest of the boards.

Depending on a hypothesis I will usually sort the data before I start. For example, if looking at a hypothesis for opening lead, I will first sort by Column T "Opps Bid". I am going to start with all boards where we did not bid because if I am signalling on opening lead I am more likely to signal when we don't bid. Once I have sorted this way, I then usually sub-sort on who is on opening lead, column M.

There are columns that tell you the opening lead, the suit led, the hands of each defender so you can test your hypothesis. I sometimes copy those columns to the end of the spreadsheet so I can see everything on one page.

It only takes a couple of minutes to set up a spreadsheet and about 10-30 minutes to start to test a hypothesis.



For the second table, there are fewer columns. For this second table.

In cell AB1, enter

Tray URL

In cell AC1, enter

Lead URL

In cell AB2, enter


In cell AC2, enter


Copy/paste cells AB2:AC2 to the end of column.


It is possible that over time I will add more columns. When this happens just make sure that the columns that you add are at the very end.


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