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Expectations. (Club game.)

It is the Saturday before Christmas, our kids haven't come home yet, and I say to Annie, " Want to play the club game?" Ok. We should play the local game more than we do. There are many old friends.

They have 23 tables. 8 tables in a beginner game and 15 tables in the open. You look at the room and in a15 table game there are 9 players with +10000 masterpoints. (What does that say about masterpoints?")

We had a 62.5% game. We were 2nd. I pitched the win on a board to follow. And I was mad at myself for not winning a club game. In a setting such as this, my question is what percentage of the time does the best pair win? 

(The hand was AKTxx, x, Qx, AKQJx. (4H)-P-(P)-4S; 5H-6C; 6D-? (No agreement that 6H is asking/telling/last train. Feel lucky punk?)

Best pair wins 20% or less
Best pair wins 30%
Best pair wins 40%
Best pair wins 50% or more.
Other. I pass 6S
Other. I bid the grand.

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