4♥? I don't get it. This hand isn't worth driving to game. And, even if it were, why give up on 3NT? If partner has ♦Axxx and the ♥K, you rate to have nine easy tricks. 2NT, intending to pass if partner bids 3♦, is a more sensible call.
What are our prospects on defense? Personally, I would always hold at least 5-4 in the red suits for South's fit-showing jump, and I believe that's the usual agreement. But Jack claims he could have only three diamonds. That's good to hear, since we may have a hard time beating this if declarer has only four black cards. If we can establish a third-round winner in a black suit, however, we may have a chance. Here is one possibility:
If I continue clubs, partner will gain the lead in trumps in time for us to cash our tricks. Since I have the ♥10, declarer can't hook partner out of his ♥Jxxx.
I can play ace and a spade to set up the third spade. But declarer can simply lead a diamond to his ace and ruff the spade in dummy. All we get after that is partner's heart trick. If partner has the ♥Q instead of the ♥J, however, declarer will go down. He must ruff a club to return to his hand. Partner can then tap him out when he gets in with the ♥Q.
(B) is a likelier pattern than (A) (since 4-3 is a likelier spade split than 5-2), but it's not twice as likely. If declarer has three spades, I need partner to have the ♥Q to beat this. If declarer has three clubs, the ♥Q or the ♥J will do. So continuing clubs is the percentage play. Partner would probably play a low club in either case, so the a priori odds are all I have to go on.
Another possibility is to shift to a diamond. If declarer does have four diamonds, then partner has a singleton. If partner has the ♥K as well, then he can put me in with the ♠A for a diamond ruff. That would leave declarer with
Or perhaps declarer is 5-5 in the red suits. Then partner doesn't need the ♥K.
We take the first four tricks if I shift to a diamond. Did partner have a way to signal for a diamond shift? If he had the ♣Q or ♣J, he could play it at trick one as an alarm-clock signal. But I have both of those cards. Without a club honor, partner has no way to ask for the non-obvious shift. So either of these hands is possible unless I think partner would not pass 1♦ with nine major-suit cards and diamond shortness.
Playing against myself, I would shift to a diamond, since (A) is not a possible hand. But Jack says his auction doesn't promise four diamonds. Why should I play for something unusual when a straightforward defense might work? I play the ♣Q--♣K--♣10--♣8.
Declarer cashes the ♥A--♥2--♥4--♥7, then plays the ♦2. Partner plays the ♦8, and declarer wins with the ace. I don't see any gain in dropping the queen, so I play the ♦4. Declarer cashes the ♥Q, partner playing the ♥3, then the ♥K. I pitch the ♣3, declarer plays the ♦3 from dummy, and partner follows with the ♥9. That's a good card to see. Partner must have the ♥J left. If declarer is 2-5-3-3, he's going down.
Declarer leads the ♦10 to the king, partner following with the ♦5. He leads a diamond back to the ♦10. Partner pitches the ♠3; I pitch the ♠5. Declarer exits with a trump, desperately hoping partner has the ♠A. Partner leads a spade to my ace, and I cash the ♣J. Down one.
I have high hopes of at least tying the match on this board. Any plus score by our teammates will suffice. And it's pretty hard for them to go minus. They can beat 2♠. And they can make any contract they are likely to bid, including an aggressive 3NT or 5♦. But no. Our teammates also reach game in the unlikely 5-2 fit, so the board is a push. We are still down 5 IMPs going into the last board.
Table 1: +100
Table 2: -100
Score on Board 7: +0 IMPs
Total: -5 IMPs
Plus... it's free!