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Play Problem vs Fantoni Nunes

Kranyak
J983
K10652
J10
Q6
Wolpert
AK76
A
AQ876
J43
W
N
E
S
P
1
2
X
2
4
P
P
P

I held this hand in the 5th segment of the Semi Finals against Monaco.  

The defense started by playing AK of clubs and continued with the Ten of clubs.

Here is the key info I had available:

1) East could not open 2 weak because of their system

2) West could not overcall 3 weak because of system

3) East encouraged clubs at trick one/two

4) West gave suit preference for hearts at trick 3

 

West's strong suit preference for hearts lead me to believe that the king of diamonds was onside.

West 2-1-4-6 with Qx or Tx of spades / East 3-6-2-2 with Qxx or Txx of spades

West 3-1-3-6 with Qxx or Txx of spades / East 2-6-3-2 with Qx or Tx of spades

Note: I didnt think it was likely that west had no hearts since east didnt open 3H (but it was possible)

 

If I choose to play for the first option, I can just discard a diamond at trick three and always make when thats the shape.

If I want to cater to the second option, I need to guess whether to ruff 9 or J of spades, This will make on some of the 1st layout and some of 2nd

 

 

So my reasoning for playing for diamonds 3-3 (the second layout) was because I already knew that the King of Diamonds was with east, so it seemed more likely that he rated to have more diamonds.  Its such a marginal piece of info, but I didn't have very much to go on.

 

What is the right play?

 

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