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Putting pressure on opponents quickly versus taking the most chances

I had to declare this hand on the European Championships this year:

North
KQ1086
A10
1075
K74
South
7
KQJ975
Q42
AQ10
W
N
E
S
1
P
2
P
2
P
3
P
4
P
P
P

 

Lead is 5 (3/5) and East produces the 9, taken by Q

 

Now there are (IMO) 2 possible lines, you can draw trumps and hope opponents can't cash 3 diamond tricks when they win A, or you can play a spade without drawing trumps and hope they play another club and/or that they cannot cash 3 diamond tricks (perhaps with the aid of a ruff).

I find this type of problems the most difficult because no matter how deeply you analyze them, you can asses the risk of losing 3 diamond tricks that could be avoided if trumps were drawn, but you cannot asses the chances of opps finding the diamond switch thanks to having a pitch on third trump.

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