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Question for Mathematicians

LHO opens a 15-17 NT which is passed around to you.  You and partner are playing Meckwell and would bid if 5-4 with 9HCP and if 5-5 with 7HCP.  You hold 7 HCPs.  Assuming that RHO would bid with a good 8 count, what would you estimate on average the number of HCPs that your partner holds to be?

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