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Signaling as Declarer

West
J64
Q2
7
KJ107542
North
875
J7
QJ10842
Q6
East
9
A1096543
A63
83
South
AKQ1032
K8
K95
A9
W
N
E
S
3
P
P
X
P
3
P
4
P
P
P
D
4 South
NS: 0 EW: 0

This is deal 15, "Signalling as Declarer" from Larry Cohen's excellent book My Favorite 52. South is in 4 on a diamond lead, 7, 2, A, K. East now plays 6, suit preference for hearts. South follows with 5 to keep the signal ambiguous and West ruffs.

Larry says: "From West's point of view, was East's 6 a low one from 96 or a high one from 63? He can't tell. It is fifty-fifty and West might guess wrong"

Is it fifty-fifty? East will play the six from an original A96 to ask for a club return and from A65 or A63 to ask for a heart. It therefore seems twice as likely that East is asking for a heart. The card South plays (5 in this case) doesn't change these odds, it seems to me.

What do you think?

Yes it is 50-50
No, West should read it as a likely preference for hearts
don't know

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