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I posed this problem https://bridgewinners.com/article/view/lead-problem-2-n2k7l1uifu/

And a day later I gave a hint.

The only thing that may be "wrong" in this problem, is the form of scoring. Assume therefore that we are at IMPs.

My reasoning was as follows.

1. They are definitely not going to have guessess in clubs.

2. They may have a problem in diamonds if my partner has the queen. His holding the king is nearly "impossible".

3. Most probably they do not have everything in hearts, so my pd has a stopper there.

4. Also it is highly probable that my pd has a stopper in spades. If not they will definitely have no problems!

5. It follows from 3 and 4 that pd can be squeezed.

6. If 2 is not true then probably one of the most popular squeeze types (a squeeze/endplay) will be applied.

7. They were not very confident about bidding the slam. One of the reasons could be South's lack of support for spades. He may even hold a singleton.

 

We should therefore lead spades -- solution that nobody found.

Some people considered hearts.

Of course there are some risks connected with that lead.

If you give the A to your partner, in very many configurations a spade lead may be the only that sets the contract.

 

What is your opinion?

 

It is too speculative
Now I see a chance for that, but I'd never lead spades because I want to play with pd some other competitions
I'm not a bot (am I?...)
May be bot can consider the spades lead, but to prove its correctness a special simulation program has to be written
In my opinion hearts and spades will receive similar rankings in a good simulation
Another opinion

Sorry, to answer polls. Registered users can vote in polls, and can also browse other users' public votes! and participate in the discussion.

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