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Transfers after NT

I expect this to sound like a tempest in a teapot. For starters, I suspect most of us know that when we open the auction with 1 of a major in first chair, we expect pard to average 2.7 card support and we expect an 8+ card fit in our major about 55% of the time.

With that background, when pard opens 1NT and I have a 5-card major and I transfer him to my major, in first approximation, I "expect" the paragraph above to apply. However, in practice, I was getting the ugly feeling that I was often making many futile transfers to partner's doubleton. So, when the auction went 1NT - 2H; 2S - 2NT; P - P, I would feel guilty that I helped the defense to defeat my partner. Of course, this snafu gets worse when partner turns out to be 5-4 in the minor suits! So, I broke down and went through some belabored probability calculations to find my gut feel must be wrong:

When partner opens a balanced hand, I now expect him to average exact 3-card support, and furthermore expect an 8+ card fit with my 5-card suit 72% of the time.

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