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Who's the Joker?

Playing in the finals of the 0 - 10K Swiss, you pick up the following hand, white versus red: K92, AQ743, A8, AT3. Partner is dealer, and opens 1. You and your partner play Precision, and you open all 10-counts with a 5-card major. 

As you start planning your auction, figuring out whether to bid slam or just game, RHO overcalls 1NT! You check the opponents' convention card, and it is marked 15-18, natural. Clearly, something doesn't add up here.

Nevertheless, you double the 1NT bid. Next hand passes (if you ask, the opponents play redouble here as penalty, not runout, and they can transfer to escape with a 5-card major or 6-card minor, but have to pass without a long suit; the NT bidder can then initiate a runout, or choose to sit as a least-of-evils call).

Partner pulls your double to 2, and next hand passes. What's going on, and what do you call?

In my mind, there are several possibilities:

  1. Both partner and RHO shaded their bids. Partner opened with a shapely 9, RHO overcalled with 14, perhaps with a 5- or 6-card suit. 
  2. Partner opened a nice 8-count, and overcaller has his 15.
  3. Partner totally psyched, and overcaller has his NT bid. (In which case LHO might even have a couple points)
  4. Overcaller totally psyched, maybe with a long minor to run to, but partner has a skanky minimum, and was afraid to sit. (LHO might even have a couple points, in that case).

 

(In terms of deciding when opener would run, I am assuming that opener expects 11 or more HCP for the double). Can anyone think of other plausible options?

And, given those options, what do you call over 2S?

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