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North
86
AJ84
xx
AKJ84
South
AKQ105
K1096
xx
52
W
N
E
S
1
3
X
P
4
P
P
P

You (S) play against the true experts.

3 was an aggressive bidding (not exactly preempt).

Lefty started with AK. E showed a doubleton with his small spots, but with a probability 10% this count can be false (they not necessarily give count).

Then W played 7. It can be from 1, 2 or 3 clubs. E's small spot to this trick says nothing.

You won it with the ace and played another ace. They followed: 2 from E, 7 from W.

Next Jack of trumps followed by E's 3.

 NOW IT IS TIME FOR YOUR decision!!

This problem - as multiaspect - is absolutely oriented for the multiple choice format.

For the moment BW readers can choose only one from the proposed options...

 

It is fifty/fifty
It is fifty/fifty(at least in practice), but I'd like that someone else confirms this diagnosis
I have an idea how to calculate probabilities of success for both options, but it may be not easy
I see the model for simmulation
I see a non-mathematical solution or at least a relevant hypothesis!
I can not try to solve this problem without knowing a type of scoring
I'd play differently earlier
I do not see a problem here
Nothing from above

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