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All comments by Adam Portley
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The 3rd round 3 bid (over 2NT) is interesting. I hadn't thought much about it before but I guess it's logical that it shows six hearts. Is there any other good use for it?
So I guess 2-2N; 3 shows a minimum and 2-2N; 3 shows a non-minimum? And then the difference between that last auction and an immediate jump to 3 is one of suit-quality?

edit: blech, this was supposed to be a response to Yuan in the thread above.
Sept. 5, 2013
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I don't understand your comments about “the great thing about showing life..” etc. We are talking about the auction
1-2
2-3
Do you think that 3 shows a minimum or that responder has somehow limited his hand?

edit: removed braindead comment about 3 bid.
Sept. 5, 2013
Adam Portley edited this comment Sept. 5, 2013
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The fact that it doesn't set trumps just means that 3NT is to play and 4 is natural. 4 is still clearly a cuebid, 3 is forward-going.

If you're interested in finding out about partner's suitability for slam, the way to do that is to show a slammish hand. Bidding 2/3 is useless; partner will sign off with every minimum, suitable or not.
Sept. 5, 2013
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What's wrong with 3? It shows a slammish hand with a good suit; that's what we have. And why do you think 2 is any better? Does it even promise 6 hearts in “vanilla 2/1”?
Sept. 5, 2013
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Nice hand! But do you have to keep the spade in dummy? What if you come down to the 5 card ending Kxx x K?
edit: now I see.. in that case I have to guess East's original club length. I won't know for sure whether he kept two clubs or bared his queen and kept a spade. Playing the second round of hearts earlier in your line resolves the ambiguity when the last trump is cashed.
Sept. 1, 2013
Adam Portley edited this comment Sept. 1, 2013
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Seems like a lot of hands with 3 spades would double over 1
Aug. 30, 2013
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edit: sorry, I should read the OP notes more carefully..
Aug. 26, 2013
Adam Portley edited this comment Aug. 26, 2013
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I know there is no equity but how does partner know that? The opps haven't promised much, and I would have scrambled/passed with an 8-count.
Aug. 21, 2013
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Yuan, 90% seems way off to me. What do you expect for the second double? 1444 17-count seems normal to me; partner didn't break the scramble.
Aug. 21, 2013
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Also, since the voting is already one-sided:
- in your estimate, what's the likelihood of beating 3S?
- what's the likelihood of escaping undoubled in 4m at various levels (club/sectional, regional..)
Aug. 16, 2013
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What is the rationale for playing (2) as penalty? Seems like when the 1NT bidder has a penalty double his partner frequently has a takeout double, especially if (1) doesn't require extras. And how do you get them when opener has the penalty double (which seems like the most lucrative scenario)?
Aug. 14, 2013
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I can't blame opener; he can “see” 11 tricks opposite AQxxxx of spades. If there's any blame it's on responder's side. At least his decision is close.
Aug. 8, 2013
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If my chances are slim that seems to argue for always taking the top-or-bottom line if it's at all close (unless I've already had several good boards). If my luck is in I can improve my odds quite a bit; if not, I haven't hurt my already slim chances all that much. Is that right? How bad would the swing line have to be before it should be rejected?
Aug. 2, 2013
Adam Portley edited this comment Aug. 2, 2013
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edit: moved into above discussion
Aug. 2, 2013
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You're talking about maximizing matchpoints on this hand; I'm talking about maximizing the chances of winning the event (which I assume is the goal, though I suppose there are other possible goals). Many of the best players are out of town - that must have boosted my odds in the event quite a bit. Does that make the top-or-bottom line more or less attractive?
Aug. 2, 2013
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The OP mentions that the field is weaker than usual. Doesn't this argue against taking a top-or-bottom line with a very thin edge?
Aug. 2, 2013
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I don't like the first pass. This is not the type of hand which passes first and comes out of the weeds to double for penalty later.
July 26, 2013
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Undiscussed I think it's too dangerous to treat it as anything but a punt, so I would bid 3NT. As for what it should be, maybe it should show 5 spades. The likelihood of a 5-3 spade fit is low but the cost of missing it is high since it's a 4-level game and some people will open 1 and find their fit.
July 25, 2013
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I don't think this is as clear as John says. The chance of finding an 8+ major fit depends on partner's frequency of opening 1NT with various shapes. He might well tend to open 1M with a 5-card major or 42(52) but 1NT with a 6-card minor or 22(54).
Even if the odds of finding a fit are greater than 50%, the loss when we fail to find a fit is likely to be greater than the gain when we do find a fit (it is reasonably likely that both 1NT and 2M are down).
March 21, 2013
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In this auction, with only one unbid major, maybe not. Most of the time with spades and a minor we can just guess to play 4S with decent spades, or else guess to play 5m with a good 6-card minor and we'll be ok. Meanwhile, with choice-of-games we have no way to set spades and rkc, and no way to make a forward-going move without going past game. That seems like a real problem when the opponents have not shown any values.
Feb. 14, 2013
Adam Portley edited this comment Feb. 14, 2013
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