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Is 4 choice-of-games or a spade slam try?
Feb. 13, 2013
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Sorry, I misread the post. The odds were for the opening bid. At this point I would guess something like 50+% of the diamond hands and less than 5% of the majors hands would rebid 3D, so I would guess to pass.
Feb. 1, 2013
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(earlier comment deleted)
At the table I would go with my best guess. If he's 75% to have the majors I'd play him for that.
Feb. 1, 2013
Adam Portley edited this comment Feb. 1, 2013
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If he had GF clubs without support he would have bid 3C over 2NT, right? If he had the balanced inv, he would have doubled 2NT. Therefore he has support.
Feb. 1, 2013
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awesome.. is it too late to retract my post? couldn't you have posted 10 minutes sooner?
Jan. 31, 2013
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I don't think opener has anything close to an opening hand here. I have seen people mess around in first chair at equal vul; I have never seen anyone pass their unlimited partner with an 11-count when RHO has shown no values. It just goes against human nature, in my experience.
Jan. 31, 2013
Adam Portley edited this comment Jan. 31, 2013
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Blasting to a white 3NT with a 7-count when partner most likely has 14-15 just seems flat out wrong, especially when RHO announced he has a long suit to lead.
Jan. 30, 2013
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I would reason like this: leading a spade to the king is 50% to succeed. Playing a heart to the ten is also around 50% to succeed: QJ-onside is 25%, 3-3 hearts is 36% of the remaining 75%. If one works and the other doesn't, we need to guess correctly. If both fail, it probably doesn't matter what we choose to do. However, if both succeed then we need to play hearts first because it establishes more tricks. Additionally, if hearts are lying 3-3 with QJ-onside then we can bring them in with no losers and can still try the spade finesse if we wish. If we lead a spade first, East can fly ace and knock out our diamond stop. Now we probably do not dare to try the heart finesse.
Jan. 8, 2013
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I can imagine the guessing they have to do over 3S. They are both minimum with bad suits and no support. It will take them about 2 milliseconds to pass, and if they think longer than that it will be about whether to double and ship us for 300.
Jan. 8, 2013
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I suspect partner is very light; since he didn't bid 2S w/r he probably has only 5 spades, perhaps AJxxx or something, plus maybe the king of diamonds and out. It's also somewhat more likely that he has a balanced hand, so I'm pretty pessimistic about our chances.

I bid 2S because I couldn't bring myself to pass with this much support but I wonder if pass is not best. I suspect everyone is minimum and East made a dangerous bid with maybe 5 hearts and a 10-count. If I bid now, West can simply pass with a minimum and no heart support and bad clubs. But what if I pass and catch him with a 2245 or 2146 minimum?
Jan. 7, 2013
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Seems weird but I think the clubs are too good for 1NT. There is too much risk of missing a game when partner has a spade fit.
Dec. 6, 2012
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What do you do (when not in a force) with extra values where you don't prefer to defend and you don't have a clear bid?
Dec. 5, 2012
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I suspect a lot of people would use a Michaels cuebid on the first hand, followed by a double to show extra values.
Nov. 26, 2012
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I would play partner for three bad hearts. That by itself puts 6H in jeopardy even when he has perfect cards outside.
Nov. 26, 2012
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If I bid 4 and partner rebids 4, does this guarantee 3-card support? Can he do this as a simple preference with a doubleton?
Nov. 15, 2012
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(re: Henry being high enough opposite a 4342 Yarborough)
Not if the other table is in 6D making.
Those shapes are probably less likely than something like 4531 but this is still a huge hand. I don't think we can risk playing in 3C when we have good chances for game opposite 5 spades or 4 diamonds and a complete Yarborough.
Nov. 13, 2012
Adam Portley edited this comment Nov. 13, 2012
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Sorry, for whatever reason when I first looked at the problem I thought I held the DQ and never fully readjusted my thinking. I like 4C and raise 4D to 5.
Nov. 13, 2012
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If you're going to have to guess to make 5C, why not guess that opening leader won't have the ace of diamonds and won't know which suit to lead. If you're wrong, maybe diamonds split 4-4, or maybe partner has Jxx (oops, Qxx) , or maybe he has 4 diamonds.
Nov. 13, 2012
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Does anyone think 2D shows “significant” values? We doubled for takeout; partner is not vul at the 2-level and this might be his last chance to get the suit on the table.

I don't agree with Bob that partner can assume diamond support after double+4H. Why can't I have hearts+clubs? Why can't I have 6 hearts and a stiff diamond but not a good enough suit to balance with a jump overcall? Why can't I keep 1S-X in the picture?

Doubling again promises a big hand. Further heart bids below game will be forcing. Partner can infer flexibility (diamond support), and it gives us some room to explore. Unfortunately it might also convince partner that we have only 5 hearts. Maybe jumping immediately to 4H is better.
Nov. 10, 2012
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I have a flexible hand, so I'll double again.
Doesn't 3H just show a single-suited hand too strong for a 2H balance? Maybe a 16-count with a good suit? Why shouldn't partner be able to pass that if his hand is unsuitable?
Nov. 9, 2012
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