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OK, I give the answer. May be there is: something illogical or a simple error. The Chance is the following: 1. E has ♠AQ2 2. After winning spades trick and cashing ♥K. He will not play ♥x. If I play ♠6 in the third trick I get the following Chance. Say E plays ♥Q. I win with the high spade and play something in spades different from ♠3. E wins and then I enter dummy with ♠4 to cash a good ♥J. I can not enter in diamonds because E will trup the trick.

To play for this Chance I can not play ♠3 in the third trick.

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Say, you played ♠3. 5, J, Q followed. In original problem, E played ♥K and then ♥x. This must happen when you see the closed hand. But from E's point of view, the second continuation is not absolutely obvious. He may continue clubs. Or play ♥Q.

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I think that real expert feels the LAW. The only problem is what number of artificial sequences (connected with the LAW) he is going to include in the bidding system? But this is quite difficult to assess since he normally plays with different partners.

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I agree that NS players with some imagination will keep only singletons in clubs. Little more imagination is necessary to infere that spades drops from N means exactly singleton or doubleton if he does not hold the queen. So clubs lead does not give much information. Nevertheless it is possible to make error in case ♠Q is in dummy.

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Good point Ken! Here, however, I'm not sure if I can rely on unknown pd's sequence of spots (suit preference is only an alternative). After clubs lead eveything is clear. Of course it does not mean that I try to prove that something is optimal.

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Take 2 possibilities: 1. E has everything in hearts. 2. You “kill” pd's figure. Then declarer plays his hearts. You and pd keep clubs. What will the ending be? Ian, I'm not teaching here. Yes I have some mathematical models for declarer's play/defense, but forums are not good platforms for presentation. I try to provoke with some unusual hands.

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E had Kx in spades, 8 hearts, AQx in diamonds and void in clubs. Small club was the best lead. But I do not insist on that. I repeat: In many positions one can not prove that there exists an optimal solution. The discussion has its own value.

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It is quite possible that form of my articles is controvercial or even very irritating. Nevertheless I try to present my vision of bridge. Very often the optimal solution can not be find, so the only possible method is through the expert discussion. Person who enters here for the first as possibly the last time can not assess if someone is expert. I expect your support…

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For now I only respond to: why it is not a lead problem. Bidding and lead problems here, are connected with standard bridge played by experts. They are oriented for VOTING, without too deep analysis and an extremely special approach.

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Other disvantages of hearts lead: 1. Pd may have singleton in spades. 2. Pd may have ace in clubs and situation in that suit becames clear after the clubs lead. Before they start to run hearts. Remember we do not have an unique agreement how to show our values in suits that weren't neither bid nor played.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

The Chance is the following:

1. E has ♠AQ2

2. After winning spades trick and cashing ♥K. He will not play ♥x.

If I play ♠6 in the third trick I get the following Chance.

Say E plays ♥Q.

I win with the high spade and play something in spades different from ♠3.

E wins and then I enter dummy with ♠4 to cash a good ♥J. I can not enter in diamonds because E will trup the trick.

To play for this Chance I can not play ♠3 in the third trick.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

But from E's point of view, the second continuation is not absolutely obvious. He may continue clubs. Or play ♥Q.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Assume there are 5 hearts and only 3 diamonds in dummy. Say, ♦3 becomes ♥3.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

3=3=3=4. With this distribution, however, he would play differently.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

So clubs lead does not give much information. Nevertheless it is possible to make error in case ♠Q is in dummy.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Of course it does not mean that I try to prove that something is optimal.

Andrzej Matuszewski

1. E has everything in hearts.

2. You “kill” pd's figure.

Then declarer plays his hearts. You and pd keep clubs. What will the ending be?

Ian, I'm not teaching here. Yes I have some mathematical models for declarer's play/defense, but forums are not good platforms for presentation.

I try to provoke with some unusual hands.

Andrzej Matuszewski

I repeat: In many positions one can not prove that there exists an optimal solution. The discussion has its own value.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Person who enters here for the first as possibly the last time can not assess if someone is expert. I expect your support…

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

May be ♦AQT and void in clubs. How will know about pd's ♣AQ or ♣AJ?

Andrzej Matuszewski

Bidding and lead problems here, are connected with standard bridge played by experts. They are oriented for VOTING, without too deep analysis and an extremely special approach.

Andrzej Matuszewski

1. Pd may have singleton in spades.

2. Pd may have ace in clubs and situation in that suit becames clear after the clubs lead. Before they start to run hearts. Remember we do not have an unique agreement how to show our values in suits that weren't neither bid nor played.