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All comments by Andrzej Matuszewski
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2NT is too weak, 4 is too strong.
There is a speculative bid 3

We can assume that pd does not hold K. But he can have kings in hearts and/or clubs. May be with jacks….
July 16
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From the discussion above I understood that there was third fault: I do not distinguish second and fourth hand positions, after they open.
July 16
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I can tell you the truth of reality while preparing polls and articles (not only for BW).
90% of articles were born not as reports of my brilliancy but rather as analyzes of catastrophes.
In this deal I made 2 errors (or bad decisions). I bid 1NT instead of 2NT and then made only superaccept. Result 20% score.
July 16
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1. I did not like x in the first round. This is why:
W N E S(me)
1 p p x
p 1 p 1NT
p ?

In this position pd knows nothing.


2. Returning to the reality of the problem.
There are two possible interpretations of pd's 2 (Transfer).

A. Partner has close to maximum holdings. Within the limits of his previous pass.
B. Pd has minimum with 6-7 spades.

Tertium non datur. Because with something in between he would pass.

What do you think about that?
July 16
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ALL ACTIONS!!!!!
Bidding 2NT N-GIB knew that he is going to finish in 3, which can be easily doubled. Our 3 can be easily played on 4-3 fit with their division 1-5.
Their 2x seems less dangerous for NS.
It is worth to make simulation for comparison NS's 3 (sometimes doubled) against WE's 2x.
July 14
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I made several simulations, projected another ones and made some “advanced simulations”. All of them were very interesting. This hand is a material for new simulations. One learns a lot making such research…

May be we will introduce a scientific corner at BW…
July 14
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Any arguments in favor S's 3 do not convince me! To support my point 3 one has to make a simulation.
July 14
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3 after N's 3 is a STRANGE bid in my opinion. There are MANY arguments against such bid.
1. If N has 2 stoppers in spades, why he did not pass the double.
2. If N has 2 stoppers in spades and a very weak hand then NS's 3NT will be easy set through clubs,
3. Generally chances for 3NT after 3 are smaller than chances for 5 and even than 4.
July 14
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Let me present my point. Especially in situation when public vote is clearly against me.
It was not necessary that W opens 2. I agree that this bid is most standard, but standard does not mean that 2 is obligatory.
Standard bid does not mean: safe bid or best bid.
For this particular hand NS line could and should double 2 or bid 3NT.
Without 2 it would be difficult (or far from easy) for NS to reach 3NT.
With the actual Lebensohl procedure and particularly with 3 bid by N it is nearly impossible to reach 3NT or earlier to double 2.
The only argument in favour of this Lebensohl can be a reasoning, which will prove that this particular hand is the extreme one.
July 14
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But comparing with other normal tables 3 or 4 would still be very close to 0% score.
July 14
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My naive thinking was: he can not have good spades. Or he have a spades stopper, but he is very weak. Then asking for spades stopper has no sens. After N's 3NT E will have absolutely clear first lead in clubs. He will not go in hearts since double nealy always is based on hearts!
July 14
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Let's rethink from te beginning.

1. When you reopen after 2, you take into account as a quite probable option that pd could not bid earlier since he has spades. Or spades are his very good or the best suit.

2. GIB-N bidding 2NT knew that we are going to play a diamonds contract. Knowing that RHO has many spades, trumps can be divided badly. The only values he holds are outside the diamonds.
July 14
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OK. But even passing 3 gives poor result comparing with their 2x or our 3NT.
July 14
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Yes! But it is Lebensohl. Of course it would better not to use this convention.
July 14
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Good analysis. It is enough that pd has J….
July 13
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Hint:
They can have communication problems. This hint is general in all hands, in which declarer cashes his longer first (mainly in NT contracts).
July 13
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Good analysis!!!
July 13
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You assume that there is a high probability that E was 4=4=1=4?
For me queen and 9 of spades in hands of E was an important chance. But after E's a spade throwing, this chance has the probability close to zero. Then increases chance that E had 5 clubs at the beginning. That's why I threw a club.
July 13
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I have a proposal, which would introduce an unique feature. The proposal is an effect of my statistical research.
For all quizzes I propose an option of multiple choice. I.e. author of the quiz can give voters a possibility to choose more than one answer.
Once we have this possibility, still more features can be introduced:
1. RANKING. Voter, who will decide to choose more than one answer can say that 3 bid is better than his second choice 3NT.
2. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. Having at least 40 voters and a feature of multiple choice (which was used by 20 voters) we can treat the set of all answers as a statistical sample. I can show methods of analysis of such sample. Of course more voters and more multiple choice voters give more chances that the analysis will be fruitful.
July 13
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Q still belongs to the routine moves….
July 12
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