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All comments by Atul Rai
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Vacant spaces info becomes available only when one opponent shows out, suggestung uneven VS. Until then, absent bidding by opponents, VS are estimated to be equal. The original post suggested that opponents had not bid and had followed suits until key decision point in the play.
Dec. 26, 2018
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K and low to J (1) . Slightly better than 50%: Q onside + stiff queen offside.

Playing AK (2) is vastly inferior: stiff Q either side + doubleton Q either side. So net comparison between (1) and (2) is finesse (50%) versus Qx either side. Qx either side is 12/42 of 31% when the suit breaks 5-2 or about 8.9%. This has to be adjusted for stiff Q with LHO but that is about 0.5%. Even so, (2) is under 10%. So (1) is better than (2).

Playing J and then hooking 9 (3) needs a justification based on cards played and a certainty that RHO has Q. Let us compare (1) and (3) now. Of the four configs of Q and T, (QT with RHO; QT with LHO; Q with LHO and T with RHO; Q with RHO and T with LHO) both (1) and (3) lose when QT are with RHO. Of the remaining three configs, (3) wins only in one, when Q is with RHO and T with LHO. It loses in the remaining two configs (QT with LHO; Q with LHO and T with RHO). So (1) is superior to (2).
Dec. 26, 2018
Atul Rai edited this comment Dec. 26, 2018
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Although my suggested model may seem too radical, think about this: bidding/play in tempo already means bid/play in a time does not vary depending on the hand that is held. The way the current method is implemented is basically applying this principle in half measures, actually with no measures because we don't track how much time one takes. We call foul much more often when a bid or play is too slow (the hesitation) than when bid is made in normal tempo. As I pointed out, normal tempo can itself be used to convey useful if hesitation is consistently used to convey no information. The important thing is that time taken is different for different types of hands. As long as that is acceptable. UI can't be eliminated.

I suggest a lighter version of my proposal. Use tablets for bid and play. Instead of imposing time limits with default bid/play by computer, at least start creating a database of how much time players are taking for bid/play. This way a database can be created for statistical analysis to correlate time taken and cards held.
Sept. 11, 2018
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David Burn, the declarer should have a time limit per deal (or a set of deals), not per trick. So you can bid a slam that takes more than ten seconds to claim. These can be tweaked. Coming to a decision about play in a reasonable amount of time should be a part of the contest.
Sept. 11, 2018
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Agreed. But the idea is to have time limit for every bid and every play of the card and have them completed in a standard amount of time. Thus the variation in time can't be used to pass UI to the partner.. It can be done easily via tablets. Your c.c. may be loaded on tablet to ensure self alerts.
Sept. 10, 2018
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We can't avoid UI. Those who claim that the player was ethical because he played his singleton in tempo forget that the signalling system could be: play singletons in tempo, but play out of tempo otherwise. Notice, that unless you observe someone for several deals and prove correlation of action with cards held, you have proved nothing. The only solution, in this age of smart devices, is the following, similar to chess:
Every player has a fixed time to bid, otherwise computer sends a pass bid on your behalf automatically once your time has elapsed. Your bid is revealed at a fixed time interval, no sooner and no later regardless of when you submit the bid. You are sitting behind screens (of course). All bids are self-alerted. You have similar time limit as a defender to make a play. Your card is played at a fixed time, no sooner and no later, if you don't play your card within the time limit, the computer will automatically select a legal card for you at random.
It is time we accept that in day and age, players can't take forever to make a play.
Sept. 10, 2018
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In Tallahassee, Fl, I was once given directions at a gas station (waaay before days of GPS) like this: turn right here, left there and then go west on 90 East. After confirming the directions to make sure that I heard it right, I quitely walked out and threw away the directions. I was not going to drive in the wrong direction on a one-way street. When I finally reached 90 E, I found that the directions were actually correct- 90 E goes in both directions, east and west. Go figure.
March 15, 2018
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My bad. How can I delete it from “Partnership Forum” and post it as article?
Feb. 5, 2018
Atul Rai edited this comment Feb. 5, 2018
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When you cluelessly say “push” while comparing team scores with a pregnant partner.
Feb. 4, 2018
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Pls contact me at +1-256-468-5148. I will be playing in finals of Werner Open pairs later today and I can meet you before game time near Constitution Hall.

Best,

Atul
July 27, 2017
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Further to my comment, ACBL should think this way: players are spending a lot of money in terms of time, hotel stay and gas. Why not try an alternate format, e.g., online, and recoup some of that money for themselves and increase participation at the same time? It is a win- win.
April 17, 2017
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For most districts qualifying stages of GNT involve long drives and overnight hotel stays. I suggest that we experiment with hosting the qualifying stages online in a proctored environment. For example, the players must play online on their laptops at a club. Obviously details need to worked out, but I think it is feasible.
April 17, 2017
Atul Rai edited this comment April 17, 2017
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BTW, thank you for posting the hand about ELC. Enjoyed reading your detailed discussion and important points you made.
April 3, 2017
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I meant the concept in “A switch in time” by Gravonattors (sp?) A codified set of rules based on honor cards and length in dummy's suits to first identify the obvious shift suit and then determine whether the partner of the opening leader can stand the switch to that suit (from her point of view). Thus, encouragement is not necessarily a preference to continue the suit led, but to prevent a disastrous switch.
April 3, 2017
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What is your opinion of obvious shift at trick one principle for attitude purposes?
April 3, 2017
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Jeff, can you pls think aloud for me to decide the line of play on DK lead in 7NT with AQx,AKQxx,AJT,Kx opposite xx,x,xxx,AQJTxxx?
March 29, 2017
Atul Rai edited this comment March 29, 2017
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No real upside and lots of downside: very poor quality suit for three level contract that may prove costly; opponents will likely declare in a major contract and read my distribution like an open book; and partner may lead away from Ax(x) in clubs.
July 29, 2016
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Hi Polly, Enjoyed reading your post. Say my hello to Ravi. I played with him in Dallas in March this year. Reminds me of how I wandered into Spingold in 1997 and sat down to play against Bobby Goldman and Paul Soloway one time :)

Good luck in rest of your games. -Atul
July 24, 2014
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