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All comments by Aviv Shahaf
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Pass is somewhat “Safe” and can only cost big if we miss game (assuming we would have bid the right game).
Most likely it will result in a small to medium swing either way.

Bidding 4 would be a big winner if they let us play there and it makes or if they take the push to 4 and we collect a big penalty.

Bidding 4 loses big if 4 goes down and another game was making or if 3 could have been down a few tricks doubled or when RHO was waiting for us with the Ax and we go for a big number.

Bidding 4 may also just result in a small to medium swing when it goes down undoubled depending on the outcome of 3.

Doubling can win big if Partner Leaves it in and we collect a big penalty or when it help us get to a making game (it's the only action that leaves 3NT and 5 as possibilities for a final contract)

Doubling can cost big if partner leaves it in and they make or if 4 is making but the double get us to the wrong contract or when RHO is waiting with the Ax and we go for a big number.

Doubling can also result in a small to medium swing in several ways.

IMHO in the cases where 4 wins we should also get the same result after starting with a double but in most of the cases where doubling wins we would lose if we bid 4.

To me it's between Doubling (my choice) or taking the “safe” route via pass.
June 28, 2012
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That was exactly my point Ellis…
Most people play 3m as either 5/5 Inv/Forc or as Puppet or as… etc. etc.
If 3 as Invitational was an option I would have expected it to be one of the options in the poll.

I can almost always find (or invent) a convention or treatment that will fit the hand in question but that's not going to make it “Standard”.
June 27, 2012
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It would be nice if we could adjust our bidding system to fit the hands we hold (and let partner know which system we are using…)
Unfortunately, we have to decide what we play before we start playing and I believe very few partnerships treat a jump to 3m over 1NT opening as Invitational…
June 27, 2012
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This hand is a clear 3NT

Even if I thought it was only worth an invitation I wouldn't use the 2 tool because of my Spade holding
Last thing you want to see is a double of your 2 toy
June 27, 2012
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I would double and convert 2 to 2 and 3 to 3 (but will pass an advance to 4).
This could only be ELC since I had 4 ways of showing just spades (2/3/4/X followed by a jump to 4) and one way of showing a big - 2 suiter (4)

Clearly this could work out poorly but it's the best description for my hand at a reasonably low level.

2NT is another option but I believe it is much less descriptive and possibly even riskier (I'm sure Zia learned his lesson and would not duck again against Phillip and ducking would not even cross the minds of lesser mortals) and if NT is right for us we should still get there with my plan but it would be much harder getting to Spades or Clubs starting with 2NT.

All other actions (including Pass) are as risky but much less descriptive.
June 26, 2012
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Based on my Heart and Spade holding it is very likely that RHO is 2 suited and 4 might make.

On the other hand I have prime trump support which I never got a chance to show so 4 could easily be making too.

I file this hand under the “bid 4 over 4” rule.

There are no guaranties but there are more ways to gain (when either contract is making) and the gain when you are right is usually much greater than the loss when you are wrong if both 4 and 4 goes down.
June 26, 2012
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I've been -570 before…

The only reason not to double IMHO is that they might find a better fit in a red suit.

I really don't like the XX on the previous round but opposite a sane partner I expect to be +300 (or even +500) a decent percentage of the time.

Regarding your question: Pass is not even remotely forcing.
June 26, 2012
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I do agree that South has no business bidding 6 and should get most of the blame, but North still gets some of the blame for bidding 5 with a hand that looks so defensive oriented.
I would have doubled with the North hand even if I was playing Pass as forcing.
4 should routinely go down 3 with the not too hard to find ruff.
June 26, 2012
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I would not have been defending since, unless we are playing weak NT, I would have raised to 3 directly over 2.
June 26, 2012
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Playing Incision this is an easy 1 opening… Playing 2/1 I have nothing to add to Barry and Rob's wise words and would also open 3
June 26, 2012
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Perhaps some of the Abstainers wanted to overcall 4 on the previous round…
June 26, 2012
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Why is everyone playing this silly blame game?

It's clear too me that no one underbid!

If I could only invent a bidding system that always diagnose, with or without competetion, when we can make game (and which game is best) with 22 hcp and when to stay out of game with 28 hcp.

Nobody would suggest East underbid if West had 1 more spade and 1 less club
Nobody would suggest West underbid if East had the Ace of Spades instead of the Ace of clubs
And I didn't even get into hands that would bid the same with not even 10 tricks available…

C'est la pont (such is bridge)
June 25, 2012
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I was a 2 bidder but after further reflection changed my vote to 2 (although with my regular partner this would be a 2 bid showing a good raise).

I think the cutoff between 2 and 2 should be any hand that would show a 3 card Limit Raise opposite a 1st or 2nd seat opening without competition - this hand barely qualifies.

The main concern with bidding 2 with anything less is that partner might make a second try after you decline the first (2) and get you too high or that partner will misjudge and compete to 3 over 3 level competition by opponents.

With this hand I believe that we are safe at the 3 level when partner gets us there.
June 21, 2012
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I don't like this rule. It forces you to discuss (and remember!) every possible auction.

I much prefer the general principal suggested by Barry: In all undiscussed auctions - whenever the auction clearly suggest that our side holds the balance of power then Pass is forcing

Please also see the discussion at “Do you Double”
http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/do-you-double/
where I believe this principal should apply
June 14, 2012
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1. Israel
2 - 99. who cares
There is clearly bias with this pick…

On a side note - When did Balicki/Zmudzinski go back to represent Poland?
I thought they were going to be on the Russian team with Gromov/Dubinin
Did their Russian citizenship request fell through?
June 14, 2012
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Lynn, I agree with you that choosing your action based just on your opponents bidding is clearly a losing strategy.

A much bigger long-run losing strategy is ignoring your opponents bidding altogether.

My approach to bidding is to try and use any clues I have, including the opponents bidding, and then try to come up with what I think is the best action.

For me its about “this hand” not “or any given other hand”

BTW, from my experience it is a losing strategy to guess instead of deduce or to chose defending instead of declaring because you need to win less tricks when defending.
June 12, 2012
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Has my VUL RHO lost his mind?

his partner merely opened 1 in 3rd seat and yet he is willing to bid all the way to the 5 level!

The only possible explanation is that he is very distributional with BOTH Majors and didn't want to preempt in first chair for fear of missing a fit in the other major (IMHO he is at least 5-5 but could easily be 6-5/5-6 or maybe even 6-6 or 5-7)

I'm bidding 6 because I think it might make but also because it might be a cheap save.

I would be very sad if it pushes them to a making 6 (which will be doubled)
June 12, 2012
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I like my partners to almost automatically reopen with shortness in overcallers suit so for me the double shows no extras.

LHO is not a passed hand and is also known to have shortness in Diamonds so could easily have a good hand.

even though I expect to beat 2, the only way It wins to pass is if we beat it two or more tricks AND not have a game our way or if we beat it one and can't make even 2.

We lose whenever 2 makes (lose a lot if it makes with overtrick/s) or if we can make game (I would accept an invitation from partner over my 2)
June 11, 2012
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Andrew - had your partner passed over 4, would you have taken it as forcing?
If not - would you have passed or bid?
June 9, 2012
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let's say you let them play 4 undoubled and it makes… how many match points are you losing for doubling?

How many matchpoints are you losing if it goes down undoubled?

Do you think partner know this?

If the auction went: 1 (P) - 1NT (2), X (P) - 2 (3), X (P) - P (3)… wouldn't pass by you be forcing (you were already committed to 3M or defending 3X)?

I agree with you that your agreements for Forcing Pass might not include this specific auction but sometimes you just have to use common sense.
June 9, 2012
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