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All comments by Benoit Lessard
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Strongly agree that many strong hand can pass and bid later but its not the case for comp hand so bidding directly with comp hand got to be more important especially if your NV.

However since you have 2S and 2NT both direct and delayed why not use 2S for great hand with clubs and 2NT for great hand with diamonds. You can still keep a delayed 2NT for unusual.

hands like

xxx
xx
xxxx
Axxx

facing a comp 3C i can simply bid 5C before responder is able to show GF or not. However if partner got too much maybe they dont have game or simply dont have the values to bid it.
16 hours ago
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I understand that there is many ways to draw a chord, however my guess is methods that use points from the circle or the center of the circle or degrees will all give the same results while methods that start by creating a new object created by random points irrelevant of the circle will give random result. Its the same thing for many math object that got an infinity component. GIGO.

But i understand why this problem expose an important statistical trap.
21 hours ago
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IMO the frequency is not that relevant, when overcaller got a sound overcall the bidding will mostly come back to him at 2S anyway. When hes got a competitive hand and responder got a 2/1 responder rebid will sometimes block him to bid 3m.
22 hours ago
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Agree you really need east help you to get the ruff for your 10th trick, if he return clubs, you can unblock the club but its still not enough.
April 23
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Initially my view was that if you have a 5 card 3-level overcall (17 pts but a 3235) you can simply pass and bid, its highly likely that the bidding will come back to you at 2S since opener cannot bid 3S on a wide range of hand. If they do they will just preempt themselve too often. Opener preemptively rebid 3S but responder got the 2/1 hand 5H+4m (with or without a fit) these are awful auctions, (is 4m natural how can responder show the fit and a good hand ?)

If you have the long suit hand its important to bid now both for lead directing and for finding sac.

But with further reflection i think you can have both, 2S for vgood hands with clubs and 2NT for vgood hands with D. If you have a medium hand but only a 5 cards suit its probably safer to pass and bid once you know responder is weak. Entering at the 3 level after a 2/1 is a deadly spot.
April 23
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Solution 2 would be right for a puzzle like,

you have an infinite line and drop same circle in a even distribution fashion. When a circle is touching the line on 2 points creating a chord how often the chord created is longer than the radius.
April 22
Benoit Lessard edited this comment April 22
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For the circle problem im pretty sure solution one is right if the points are evenly distributed on the circle.

Solution 2 is simply wrong, you cannot draw the line before positionning the points, if you start with a line that doesnt have an ending and turn it so its vertical you have to take into account the odds of this line precisely stop when reaching the circle.
April 22
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North should bid 5D not 5C.

When you bid 5C you are simply showing that is not the worse suit of the 3 remaining suits.

You may have a 4243,4423,4162,4612 & overcaller will only correct with both reds.
In short 5C say my club are longer or equal than my D OR my clubs are equal or longer than my hearts. So its A>=B OR A>=C and can still be a 2 card suit.

If you bid 5D you are showing that both D AND H are longer or equal than clubs, so its B>=A AND C>=A.

A bid that show P AND Q will be more precice and more forward going than a bid that show P or Q.

Note that if overcaller is 6H+5D he can correct the 5D advance to 5H. If in the OP example overcaller is 0643 and bid 4NT and see my 5D he will know that ive got 3H or that im 4261 so we will play 6H/7H


Anyway because my hand got values i make the more forward going bid of 5D with a crappy 4333 i would bid 5C.
April 20
Benoit Lessard edited this comment April 20
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I agree that KQTx is probably a trap pass but make it KQxx instead and the odds is for 2NT or 2D rather than 2S or pass.

many 8-9 count are negative doubles even if they dont have 4H.
IMO its safer to make a flawed neg X than passing and being stuck over partner reopening X.

5, A643, J97652, J6 is just too good for pass and 2D, I prefer 3C but I guess 3D is ok too. if partner got a normal 5332 shapes you are not really expecting to buy the hand in 2D anyway so why not simply bid 3C ?
April 20
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I also have trouble seeing how NT is going to make any tricks at all,

If clubs are 1264 in NT you avoid getting your K ruffed and you will get an entry in 2S you lose both. This far outweight any chances you have of ruffing a trick with dummy in 2S.
April 19
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I don't see how 2S will make more tricks than NT and at least 2Nt show something while 2S is almost meaningless.
April 18
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1552 or 0553 with only 4-5 pts is not my idea of a sound negative double, however i will gladly pass and respond 3C over partner balancing double.

I think 2NT should be for weak hands that are close to gamble for a trap pass but with nice stoppers.

xx
xxx
xxxx
KQTx

2NT rate to play as well as 2D and carry information.
April 18
Benoit Lessard edited this comment April 18
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If you have good forcing pass agreements and they fight up to 5D you are in a better spot after a 2C opening than after a 1S opening.

2C–(3D)–??–(5D)
??

pass (ask for a X) and a delayed 5H = both majors
pass (ask for a X) and delayed 5S = too good for a direct 5S.

I prefer to show a slammish 5S bid rather than a 1S opening and have an akward problem over their 5D.

If its

1S–(5D)–??
2C–(5D)–??

I guess both are tough auction.
April 16
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you're probably right, i would normally use Q and 2 to suggest clubs but here east should return a H anyway.
April 16
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Yes I like 2S. But since east look like he was afraid to play at the 2 level I assumed he had a good reason, anyway 1H or 2H make little sense IMO.
April 15
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If my partner make a slam try denying a control and I hold north hand im thinking about 7 and there is no way to stop me before 6. Its hard to see partner making a slam try without 3 big cards in the round suit.
April 15
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“Three small is an outstanding holding” an outstanding holding to keep bidding but a LOL holding to RKC. Also good luck playing opponents that will reach 3S on 8 trumps.

The problem with 3 small is when partner got a void, he will play you for a control and will downgrade his hand. When you dont bid blackwood and dont cuebid 4S showing a slammish hand but with 2 quick loser is north will look at his void and what do you think is going to happen ?
April 15
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At the other table I don't understand the 1H response over a crash double, i would bid 1S or maybe 1D if my crash are trash. I prefer to clubs and to , both for lead and to play.


Also maybe its greedy but i think I would try for -4, I would win the 2nd round of A play Q asking my partner not to unblock his and return the 2. Sure it look risky if declarer got 8 clubs but that why im confident partner will always return my suit . Of course i wouldnt try this if we didnt discuss that a reverse order ask not to unblock.
April 15
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West should have 6C way more often than only 5C.

6C+2A+ side trick =9
April 14
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They play precision so they probably open a lot of 11 count. I think west should probably have bid 3NT but its nothing like east mistake. When responder manage to show a suit before bidding a natural 2NT he want a filler or is willing to play 3m rather than 2NT, normally its a suit like AJxxxx not AQJtx so passing with Kxx and 2 side aces is just deserving 100% of the blame, forget the two tens or having 12 pts.

Even

Axx
xxx
Axxx
Kxx

should bid game.
April 14
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