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All comments by Benoit Lessard
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“Would the form of the game matter?” of course. In Mp people save a lot more than in imps. In MP you need pure penatly double because
-1 doubled instead of not doubled can be a huge difference.

Assume imps… its another good example why double pass inversion (dpi) is better.

You keep X as dsip, showing extras value (allow partner to bid 4Nt or to pass or even bid 5D)
pass = im happy to defend.

You dont really care if pass is 100% forcing or not. Its quite rare you have juicy penalty double against sound opps so a pure penalty double is not that profitable compared to avoiding fu%^#ed up

When you bid 3NT and later your happy to “defend” 4 it can be because you have a penalty X or because you gambled on 3Nt and dont want to compete further.

Its north who is in a tough spot, he need to check the vul to guess if EAST could be sandbagging, try to think if you bid 3Nt aggro etc..

So technically pass= willing to defend and I expect north to X everytime hes got values but pass when he bid 3 with crap and think 3NT would have gone down.

Forget all above nonsense if your playing MP. at MP you need pure pen X. In MP a pen X is more important than a DSIP X.
Nov. 30, 2018
Benoit Lessard edited this comment Nov. 30, 2018
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“–Or at least ”not wrong“–”

If north got 3 and south 4 before he play a its a coin flip, after he play a the odds are clearly in favor of the finesse.
Nov. 29, 2018
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exactly. Thats why I dont care about the
Nov. 29, 2018
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Even if you have no clue about who has the 4th club its right to take the finesse.
Nov. 29, 2018
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Peter going down too often.
Nov. 28, 2018
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0.18imps per boards is DD assuming that opener and responder are only semi-balanced “and both hands balanced, 4-4-4-1 or 5-4-2-2”

IRL opener is balanced and responder doesnt have a 5m (vul or with a 5m past or blast approach work) .I also believe that with a 5card suit an a min its probably right to accept the INV. So when you stop in 2NT neither player should have a 5 card suit. Furthermore if you remove hand where LHO would bid your also reducing variance. So the invite and stop in 2Nt will gain more than 0.18

I agree that some speculative lightner can be profitable vs 2nt-3nt but not against 3NT direct.
Nov. 27, 2018
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“It's possible the 1NT-2NT-Pass/3NT bidders get better leads and more accurate defence”. This is true at weaker level and at MP. At a stronger level in imps they will always assume that they have a chance to defeat the contract (so either opener is min rather than maximum or that responder is only inv or defense got a lucky layout.)

I don't think I have ever seen a hand where knowing opp is max allow you to find the only defense. I have seen hands where knowing opener is dead min allow you to go for -2 rather than just -1 but its rare and you must know your opps.

But I agree 100% with D.Burn comment “It's not only a matter of hcp but of method. If I have to invite via 2♣ or 2♠, I won't do that if my clubs / spades are weak enough that I fear a lead-directing double. If I can invite via 2NT I'll do that if our side can have 25 hcp.”
Nov. 27, 2018
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A pass or blast approach work when you are vul or when there is a lot of variance in the outcome (often the case when you have a suit that may or may not run). However when declarer is balanced and dummy have no 5 card suit hcp+judgement is a good indication of the number of tricks your side is going to make.

As an example look at http://www.rpbridge.net/8j25.htm#1 (where they can have 5 cards suits and even 4441/5422)

14 facing 10 number of tricks DD

6 or less = 8.13
7= 19.02
8= 36.17
9 =27.17
10 =8.26
11 = 1.15

So lets say you have a fair 14 your partner open 10. You blast to a NV game

While at my table I invite and opener pass with 10.

3nt will make 36% so you make a profit of 36 x 6imps because i didnt bid game.

however when 2nt is the limit I make a profit of
36x 5imps 120 on my side -50 on yours.

but when we both go down you pay an extra undertrick compared to me so 27x2 imps. So stopping in 2NT is worth 18 imps per 100 boards.

Vul it will be
36x10imps =+360
36x -6imps = -216
27x-3imps = -81 imps

so blasting to 3NT VUL win 63 imps per 100 boards.
Nov. 27, 2018
Benoit Lessard edited this comment Nov. 27, 2018
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This may not be clear but for me KQJTxxx/AQJTxxx are NOT a semi-solid suit. A semi solid suit is IMO one that get better facing a fit.
Nov. 27, 2018
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Agree, I don't like 2 and I don't like north double (imo a vul 2/2Nt show an opening hand and we dont have that much extra defense) but bidding 5 is the real culprit.

give north

void
xxx
AKJxxx
AQxx

and you still much prefer to be in 5 than in 5
Nov. 26, 2018
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yes but if north hold D+H he should bid 5D not 5H.
This way allow south to bid 4Nt with H+D/H+C and C+D.
Nov. 26, 2018
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exactly south got values but none in . If he had KQx than i would be worried that those get ruffed and they make or the penalties is too small.
Nov. 26, 2018
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Pass or blast approach is IMO less effective with a 10-12 range compared to a 15-17 range.

When you have 15-17 vs a 8 count its 17 not often, and 15 more often that 16.

With 10-12 facing 13 the frequency difference between 10 and 12 is not as wide as the equivalent 15 and 17, so getting opener input is more profitable. Also the cost of the bidding space lost with the invite bids ex using 2S as a range check is a little bit less costly after 10-12 than 15-17 since there is less slams. However its not true for the cost of allowing a lead directing X sicne its safer to make a lead directing X over a strong dummy and a weak declarer than the opposite.

All of this assume range of equivalent width. If you upgrade many good 14 but don't upgrade good 9 its different.

Ive played 10-14NV for many years with 2C-2D-2M (showing 4M INV) and 1Nt–2D showing a 5Minv or other type of INV hands with no 4M. Over this 2D we used paradox responses aka pass or correct) and its quite violent and fun.

1NT–2D
??

2H= I refuse a H inv
2S= i super accept H but refuse a S inv
2NT= min but like both majors.
Nov. 25, 2018
Benoit Lessard edited this comment Nov. 25, 2018
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“there are people like Kit who play that 5NT does not guarantee all the key cards.”

doesnt matter, the only difference is that if opener got the K or a source of tricks he bid 6NT instead of the 7 level.
Nov. 24, 2018
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yes i feel more comfortable raising if we were vul.
Nov. 24, 2018
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A good example that show why I hate both the style of first round control and strong jump shift.

If you play italian cuebid if opener had a cue a cue and extra he would ask for keycard instead of 4 so when he bid 4 is either missing the cue or hes minimum.

If 4 is a serious cue it mean that with both red control opener can afford to go 4NT with both red control so he cannot have a control here.
Nov. 24, 2018
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5Nt would be pick-a-slam for me. I bid 5 if partner bid 5 i raise to 6 if he make a forward going move we are likely to be in 7.
Nov. 23, 2018
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close but I like my 2Nt to be on the heavy side. I have a strong dislike for direct Nt overcall with only 15 pts.
Nov. 23, 2018
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AFAIK most play xfer are off over 3 and higher overcall since 4D as 5-5 in both M is very useful.
Nov. 23, 2018
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My bad, I missed that you were talking about “♠xx ♥KQJx ♦AQx ♣KJxx ” rather than op hand.
Nov. 22, 2018
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