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I'm definitely not passing. Passing would mean that I believe partner to have HH in spades, and I trust my partners to not have that.

Between 3D and 2NT, I'll choose 2NT. I want to bring hearts into the picture, partner could well have 5 of them.
Sept. 23, 2014
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I'm was curious as of how many will choose the A of for their opening lead –apparently it's only me. For sure it's safer to lead the A and the switch to clubs when it's right
Aug. 28, 2014
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Even if you're right about when they come up, it's only half the story. What about the missed opportunities of using that bid for something else? What about the negative inferences (or lack there of) of other bids?
I think these cases are much less quantifiable, and really separate the good conventions / systems from bad ones.
April 21, 2014
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Eric, what is help ? Is a singleton help? How about xxxx ? How about xxxxx ? The only time asking for help wins is when you find the Q (but not the J). And is partner supposed to move beyond 4 with xxxx Qxx xx xxxx ?
Oct. 7, 2013
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So that would mean an exclusion in 5 then bidding 6 ? :)
Oct. 7, 2013
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Let's see.

This is likely a 17 tricks hand. If partner has a good 5 card major, *maybe* he would have bid it the first time around. The opponents are *likely* to have a 9 card fit, but it's not cast in stone, responder could easily have 3325 with an honor in diamonds, they know they're white against red also.

Therefore, if I bid 4 and we make 10 tricks, they are likely to make only 7 – +620 vs +300, +8IMPS. If we make 9 tricks, they would make 8, – -100 vs +100, -5IMPS. Odds of us making 11 tricks or only 8 tricks I find negligible and cancelling each other out. So I would need to bid 4 with only 5/13 ~ 38% confidence of making.

However, the potential gains of bidding game disappear when this is a 16 tricks hand. +620 vs +500 = +3IMPS. -100 vs +300 = -9IMPS. Bidding only 3H, +140 vs +300 = -4IMPS.

It's a close call, but I favor passing and leading a club. I don't think that we have 38% chances of making game. Especially if at the beginning of the match, as it would send a clear message that I'm not going to be run over.
Oct. 7, 2013
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Oh, sorry. 4 it is.
Oct. 7, 2013
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I don't know the system, but I assume partner is unlimited – and that we are in a game force. In this case, I think 3 is hugely better than 4, especially with a 7 control hand.
Oct. 7, 2013
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At the table, I phased out and bid 4, not seeing other real possibilities, and, perhaps subconsciously, tring not to reveal opener's hand further.

Opener had AT JTxx KQJx xxx, making 11 tricks in spades and 12 tricks in diamonds.

The bidding could have went 1NT - 2 - 2 - 3 - 3 (showing 4) - 3 (showing 6) - 4 (good fit) - 4 (cue) - 4 (cue) - 6.
Oct. 7, 2013
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I posted in the description, 1NT = 10 - bad 13
Oct. 6, 2013
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I think it depends on the opponents. If they're any good, I rate that 4 is making more often than not. I don't think they're likely to double 5, OTOH.

How good am I going to feel when I pass and dummy hits with a void in diamonds ?

Edit: Come to think about it, I do have the 98 of hearts and the J of clubs. Partner could have very little there that might be some help for defending. I think it's much closer than I thought initially.
Sept. 25, 2013
Bogdan Agica edited this comment Sept. 29, 2013
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So, what's the best action over the reopening double? +500 when you have a grand is hardly compensating :)
Sept. 16, 2013
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I honestly believe I'm making 5 (maybe even 6!) – or at least I have a good shot at it. In IMPS I think it's a clear pass.
Sept. 15, 2013
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How about a very strong hand with a one-suiter ? Could it be bid this way? Should partner have s in an almost GF hand, we'll get there anyway. I'm bidding 3 and:
- pass, I think I'm in the right spot
- 3, I bid 3NT
- 3, I bid 4
- 3, long huddle then 4 :)
Sept. 9, 2013
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“If my general agreement is that a jump raise shows a weak preempting hand, it should be the same when balancing”…. except that it's impossible to have that hand.
Sept. 9, 2013
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I don't think it's even close for 1. Same hand without the J would have been more interesting. I have zero sympathy for 2 (or 3, even!). 4 might have some merit. For the passers, what's Michaels after 1 - 3NT ? 4 maybe ?
Sept. 1, 2013
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