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All comments by Dan Wolkowitz
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I bid 3N, planning to bid 5 over 4C, but this could be too much. Either way, you're probably not making a slam if partner bids 4. However, what if partner bids 4 over 4? Does this mean that they merely have no heart or diamond control (good) or they don't have much of anything (bad)? It's not clear whether you should bid over 4 just because they didn't bid 4. On the other hand, if you underbid bid your hand and partner bids 4, now you know they at least have a good hand with a club control, which is very likely the ace. In this case you might get too high, but you're probably ok at the 5-level. If partner doesn't have the ace, you need everything outside the diamond suit or else most things and a doubleton heart, which is hard to locate.
July 12
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David, this is also why you can never have a break even level when East has an even number of available spaces (prior to subtracting 3 cards from East and 2 from West).

Under that condition, after the subtraction, East will necessarily have an odd number of available spaces left, which cannot be exactly 2x the number of available spaces West has left. This constraint does not exist for West, since you can have an integer that is twice an odd or twice an even integer.

The whole >2x or not decision is not based on initial available spaces before tackling the suit. It's based on available spaces remaining given the assumptions that need to be made in order to have a chance to make and for it to matter choosing line 1 vs. 2.
June 12
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Kit,

The most charitable assumption for favoring the two cases of the 5-2 split is that we know no cards in either hand besides this (rather than the 2-2 spade split that we have already seen). In that case, the weight of the 5-2 split is:

13 * 12 * 11 * 10 * 9 (the possibilities of a 5-card suit)
* 13 * 12 (2-card suit)
* 7choose2 (combinations)
* 2

and the single 4-3 split is:
13 * 12 * 11 * 10
* 13 * 12 * 11
* 7choose3

after cancelling out various numbers we get:
9 * 21 * 2 vs: 11 * 35
simplifies to 9 * 3 * 2 vs. 11 * 5

so the single 4-3 seems to win by a ratio of 55:54


If instead we said that two spades were already known in each hand, then it would be:
7 * 21 * 2 vs. 9 * 35
7 * 2 vs. 3* 5

which yields a ratio of 15:14 for the single 4-3.

This means that the chance of Q9 + the chance of J9 is less than the chance of QJ9 (albeit by a very small margin)
May 22
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It depends when you decide to assess. If you look at the bids themselves, East has a suit that is a likely source of tricks and a sure entry on the side. That probably makes bidding fake worthwhile even with only 9 high. West has a little too much in the trump suit, but they have a 9-Carr sit and a ruffing value that might get used twice. As is, the hands don’t end up fitting together so you can say. It’s a lucky make, but they could have bought much better and I’d imagine that we would see many more votes to blame one or both sides.
May 13
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Nice article. Notice on page 4 that after ruffing the third round of spades high and crossing to the J, declarer can simply ruff his last spade and concede a diamond and save all that energy of counting that hand out. Also, if West had led the T from T9x there would still be a guess later in the hand after the actual diamond off dummy.
May 7
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“so I toyed with a fake minor reverse”

3m is not a reverse, it's a jump-shift. It's game forcing, so what you're saying there is that you have 17 points, no guarantee of a fit, and you want to force game because partner might have three hearts. Presumably partner would have already raised to 2 with 3 of them and a large chunk of their point range, so the hand you imagine is unlikely if even possible (what does your 1-2 auction show?)

“I also considered if I should upgrade the 17 count”

Do you open 1N with a balanced hand and a 5-card major? If so, you've already upgraded this 17-count out of 1N. Bidding 2N with 17 is an upgrade. You've seen that this hand is better than some random 17.

“…given Teams”

In general, don't upgrade twice in one bid. You're upgrading this 17 to an 18-19 balanced by bidding 2N. If you bid game with your 17-counts, then presumably you'd also bid game with 18-19, which means you need to assign a new meaning to 2N, since you're never going to have the confidence to bid it at teams, lest partner pass. As mentioned above, partner also knows it's teams. They aren't passing any 7-counts when you show 18-19. They're only passing 6 or less (I hope partner isn't pasing 1 with xx xx AJxxx T9xx)


Overall, I think you're getting lots of angry/frustrated comments because people think of bridge as a dialogue/communication/partnership where partners have a cooperative discussion. The way you're thinking about this auction would be infuriating in an established partnership because it seems like you don't trust your partner to do sane things. The reality may be that you haven't fully learned what the bids in these auctions mean.
May 2
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Nice job Zack Grossack, bidding an insufficient 2 on board 3
May 1
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I'm surprised that you say 3D is making. If West leads his singleton it looks like it's down two. Otherwise it looks like -1 unless E/W manage to never kill your club trick despite having ample time to signal.
April 30
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To generalize (perhaps overly so), in my experience the bots do not do well at ranking which plays to make. In theory, they should know the difference between a mathematical lock and a play that is likely good from a simulation. So they may take an inference that a suit is going to split 3-3 and block another suit, then cash out the 3-3 suit. Often it makes in those situations, although it had another actually guaranteed way to make.

In this situation, the bot probably decided that East always had 6+ clubs, because that is what it is programmed to think. However, it should be embarrassing to BBO that they still have bots lead stiff kings of trumps on opening lead and play queens/jacks of trumps in defense not in 4th chair. Yes, there are places where certain falsecards would be correct, and BBO in theory could have a bot that is actually “good,” but just making those hard overrides would save a ton of tricks when it plays randomly.
April 7
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@David Burn

Your beer comment is about 20 years stale. Yes, perhaps a few bars in the US still serve awful beer, but I'd wager that even you would find the quality and diversity of American beers to your liking. Sadly, most of the best ones probably don't ship much overseas. Some don't even ship to all parts of the US.

Federal Jacks, regardless of the provenance of its brewer, is not even the best brewery in Maine. That honor would likely go to the Maine Beer Company, purveyors of such brews as Lunch: https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/20681/68916/
or Dinner: https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/20681/115317/
March 31
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If South covers the spade at trick 2, you don't need to do anything. You just get 3 spades, 4 hearts, 1 diamond, 5 clubs.
March 31
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Link doesn't seem to work
March 24
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Record whenever someone makes a deviation from their stated 3-point range of at least two points.
March 24
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Probably just marked a partial in the wrong direction.
March 11
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He will never play Q then T. The others are all plausible from either holding, so what matters isn't the order but just the combinations.
Feb. 26
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That's how they trap you! You think, “there's no way this can a trap, I don't have to bid, they must be on the wrong page” and then next thing you know, you've raised a level to jam them, and…
Jan. 28
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The easiest thing to do would be to stop after round 1 (or whichever round this was discovered), have each table take their aces of hearts out of each board (without showing which pockets they came out of) and have each table distribute aces of hearts to the properly colored cards at other tables. It would probably have taken about two minutes, and no information would have been shared between tables and everyone putting the aces back would already be authorized to know where they went.
Dec. 25, 2017
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Regardless of how the beginning went, at trick 11 East knows that North has no more clubs and no more diamonds. He might have another spade. If not, he has all trumps and West will never gain by ruffing from a 2-card suit into declarer. So the only possibly useful thing to do is to play a spade and hope that partner can ruff it. This works without having to go back and think about the bidding.
Dec. 25, 2017
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When given the hand, I described the J from Jx as a play that is only possible from a player who knows enough to consider it but not enough to know that it's crazy.
Dec. 6, 2017
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If you cash the T, you're afraid when West was 6-1-1-5. When East pitches a club on the fourth diamond, you don't know whether East has Kxx, xxx, or any four clubs and will have to decide at some point whether to finesse the club or play for 4-4 clubs. You should probably play for 4-4 clubs in the case, but you don't need to.

Playing a diamond and forcing an early ruff and ruffing a spade back is equivalent to cashing the heart ten and playing a diamond pitching a spade, on which trick you magically force East to pitch a spade if they have one left. This turns the 5-3 clubs problem into the 4-4 clubs problem.

This is equivalent (on a different hand) to entering dummy to ruff some suit to ensure you create a threat rather than running trumps and allowing the opponents to discard whatever they please.
Dec. 6, 2017
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