All comments by Daniel Jackson
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As I write this, roughly noon on 7/12, there were close to a thousand people signed up to play. I'm still liking the 3250 number that Richard Willey proposed for the number of entrants. With 3250 participants at an average price of \$42 (the answer, right?), that's a cool \$136K of gross revenue.
July 12, 2017
Daniel Jackson edited this comment July 13, 2017
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I would ruff trick 1 and immediately play AQ without playing any trumps. I expect West to cover. I ruff the K and play A. Hopefully all follow. Now I can play the J, discarding a spade, and all follow, ruff a diamond setting up the long diamond, and crossruff spades and clubs. I have just enough trumps to do this.

Odds are not especially good as hearts split 2-1 78% of the time, plus you need K on your left and 4-3 diamonds.
July 12, 2017
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I have to admit I would not play this as well. I would discard at trick 1, win the spade return, ruff the 7 immediately, AK, K, and trumps. So long as trumps are 3-2, I'll make on tripleton Q, or either a squeeze or club finesse. This is probably not as good as other lines mentioned above but at least I won't get immediately set if West is 2=3 in the majors.
July 9, 2017
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I don't recall who I was playing with now, but I believe 1-2 directly would be natural and invitational.
July 6, 2017
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Doug's method frees up 1M-3 to be a 3 card limit raise and you can have 1NT non-forcing.
July 6, 2017
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For 7N by N:

If spades are 5-0 (4%) you need hearts to come in and either a diamond lead away from the king, a club lead, or the club finesse. I don't think there is a squeeze since the spades are blocked.

If spades are not 5-0 (96%) you need either hearts to come in, or a diamond lead away from the king, or a club lead, or a club finesse.

Hearts will come in on all 3-3 splits (36%), 4-2 with short hearts (1/3 of 48%=16%), or 5-1 with short hearts (1/6 of 15%=2.5%), or a total of 54.5%.

I think Esko is spot on with the 75% estimate.
July 6, 2017
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Maybe someone with math skills can analyze. Scores for each session will most likely follow a normal distribution. No idea what the standard deviation would be. If it's about 10%, then only about 4.5% of scores will be 70% or higher. Getting four of those in a row will be very unlikely.

But a 65% game is 1.5 standard deviations and happens about 1 time in 7. Four in a row will happen .04% of the time, times 3250 players means about 1.3 people will get 65% for all four sessions.

So my answer is 65%.
July 6, 2017
Daniel Jackson edited this comment July 6, 2017
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I think the only people you are preempting with a strong 2 is your own partnership.
July 5, 2017
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By Grabthar's hammer, that was pretty funny!
July 4, 2017
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I'm interested to see what kind of score wins this thing. It took 75% to win the practice game with 10000 participants. For the real thing, it'll be four times as long with fewer players so regression to the mean is inevitable.

I like Richard's number of 3250 players for the real event, I would not take the over or the under on that one.

Richard and Paul ought to just bet a dollar. That way, only bragging rights are at stake. Just my opinion.
July 3, 2017
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The A-/B/C players in our unit love the bracketed RRs. Over the past few years the percentage of tables in these games versus all other has dramatically increased. The trend will continue, I think, with the tendency of these players to want to play others of their own skill level.
July 3, 2017
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Close to 10000 entries in the free tournament now.
July 1, 2017
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Personally, I like the initial double.
June 30, 2017
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wtp?
June 30, 2017
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We need to know the NT range.
June 29, 2017
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I know 4 is a transfer to 4, but…..
June 28, 2017
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Once diamonds are established, make sure you cash the 3 before the 7.
June 27, 2017
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At the table, since we don't play exclusion, I chose to bid 5, intending it as a bid as to how good his trumps were. This should have worked as partner has AQTxx A. We got to 7 down one. Not a bad spot, though.

One pair bid and made 7 when they played the J from the problem hand, they played low smoothly, and “they didn't cover, they don't have it” played the dropping the singleton K. My partner did not do that and went down.
June 26, 2017
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That website shows an 18“ allowance for a chair plus 16” between chairs, so for a 34" table the total pitch is 86 inches. That looks like a good minimum.

Good stuff, John, thanks.
June 23, 2017
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And you would also like to play in a major if partner transfers.
June 22, 2017
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