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First overall in the 10K pairs paid 80 points with 10% platinum. I like your suggestion for the point awards for the robot game, it seems like a good compromise.
I do want to see some kind of stratification in this event in the future as B players have zero chance in this game.
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It looks like they have increased the number of section placings.
“The award payout for the NABC Online Individual has been significantly increased. Possibly due to the large number of players who have indicated their support of the event by registering, ACBL has just confirmed an increase in the total number of awards, to 67 places for each daily session and 187 places for the overalls.”
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As I write this, roughly noon on 7/12, there were close to a thousand people signed up to play. I'm still liking the 3250 number that Richard Willey proposed for the number of entrants. With 3250 participants at an average price of $42 (the answer, right?), that's a cool $136K of gross revenue.
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I would ruff trick 1 and immediately play ♦AQ without playing any trumps. I expect West to cover. I ruff the ♦K and play ♥A. Hopefully all follow. Now I can play the ♦J, discarding a spade, and all follow, ruff a diamond setting up the long diamond, and crossruff spades and clubs. I have just enough trumps to do this.
Odds are not especially good as hearts split 2-1 78% of the time, plus you need ♦K on your left and 4-3 diamonds.
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I have to admit I would not play this as well. I would discard at trick 1, win the spade return, ruff the ♦7 immediately, ♥AK, ♠K, and trumps. So long as trumps are 3-2, I'll make on tripleton ♦Q, or either a squeeze or club finesse. This is probably not as good as other lines mentioned above but at least I won't get immediately set if West is 2=3 in the majors.
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For 7N by N:
If spades are 5-0 (4%) you need hearts to come in and either a diamond lead away from the king, a club lead, or the club finesse. I don't think there is a squeeze since the spades are blocked.
If spades are not 5-0 (96%) you need either hearts to come in, or a diamond lead away from the king, or a club lead, or a club finesse.
Hearts will come in on all 3-3 splits (36%), 4-2 with short hearts (1/3 of 48%=16%), or 5-1 with short hearts (1/6 of 15%=2.5%), or a total of 54.5%.
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Maybe someone with math skills can analyze. Scores for each session will most likely follow a normal distribution. No idea what the standard deviation would be. If it's about 10%, then only about 4.5% of scores will be 70% or higher. Getting four of those in a row will be very unlikely.
But a 65% game is 1.5 standard deviations and happens about 1 time in 7. Four in a row will happen .04% of the time, times 3250 players means about 1.3 people will get 65% for all four sessions.
Daniel Jackson
I do want to see some kind of stratification in this event in the future as B players have zero chance in this game.
Daniel Jackson
Daniel Jackson
Daniel Jackson
Daniel Jackson
It looks like the number of people who actually played on the first day was 2611.
Daniel Jackson
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Daniel Jackson
http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/topic/76801-acbl-nabc-online-individual/#entry925009
Daniel Jackson
“The award payout for the NABC Online Individual has been significantly increased. Possibly due to the large number of players who have indicated their support of the event by registering, ACBL has just confirmed an increase in the total number of awards, to 67 places for each daily session and 187 places for the overalls.”
Daniel Jackson
Three trumps and spade to the ♠9. If that loses, play ♦K and diamond to ♦J.
You'll make if the double spade finesse wins or if the diamond finesse wins.
Daniel Jackson
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Daniel Jackson
Odds are not especially good as hearts split 2-1 78% of the time, plus you need ♦K on your left and 4-3 diamonds.
Daniel Jackson
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Daniel Jackson
If spades are 5-0 (4%) you need hearts to come in and either a diamond lead away from the king, a club lead, or the club finesse. I don't think there is a squeeze since the spades are blocked.
If spades are not 5-0 (96%) you need either hearts to come in, or a diamond lead away from the king, or a club lead, or a club finesse.
Hearts will come in on all 3-3 splits (36%), 4-2 with short hearts (1/3 of 48%=16%), or 5-1 with short hearts (1/6 of 15%=2.5%), or a total of 54.5%.
I think Esko is spot on with the 75% estimate.
Daniel Jackson
But a 65% game is 1.5 standard deviations and happens about 1 time in 7. Four in a row will happen .04% of the time, times 3250 players means about 1.3 people will get 65% for all four sessions.
So my answer is 65%.
Daniel Jackson