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All comments by David Caprera
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My immediate reaction was 4C, and in my partnership it should not be misinterpreted, but I am such a poor leader I don't want to punish partner for doubling on KQxxx.
Aug. 23, 2018
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The question that was asked was, “How do you define the term ”fragment“? I can offer no better definition than that in the Encyclopedia. The question that is being answered is, ”Is it adequate disclosure to say “fragment” when asked about the 4D bid?“

(Many years ago, I was an expert witness for the defense in a large securities law case. The plaintiff's lawyer was very arrogant, belligerent and uninformed. I was being deposed and his questions were ”wrong“, he did not understand the real legal issue. So, me, being me, rather than answering his stupid question, proceeded to tell him the correct question to ask. (Yes, I was an idiot. I was young and I knew the law but I had never been deposed before.) The lead defense counsel called a time out, hauled me out into the hallway and said, ”We aren't paying you to educate the opposition. Answer the question you are being asked." That lesson has stuck with me.)
Aug. 23, 2018
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4 imp penalty!

(Seriously, Mikael's reaction was genuine, sincere, from the heart, and in my opinion, in no way inappropriate. At the table it would be rude but in the vugraph room I think it is not dissimilar from cheering in the stands when your team scores a goal.)

SO, I AM STILL IN CHINA AND I HAVE HAD PROBLEMS WITH THE INTERNET. I WROTE THE PRIOR MESSAGE AND IT DISAPPEARED. I WROTE THE SECOND ONE. FIVE HOURS LATER, THE FIRST ONE MAGICALLY APPEARED. I COULD NOT ERASE THIS ONE.

I had never been to China before and I am favorably impressed. But the internet is a pain.
Aug. 23, 2018
David Caprera edited this comment Aug. 23, 2018
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Agreed, 5m-332. Similarly, we play that …3D-4M is 3M=2oM=4-4, forcing to 4N. (We actually use 2N as our 5M ask, but to the same effect.)
Aug. 23, 2018
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Ok, 4 imp penalty.

Seriously, Mikael's behavior was natural and sponteneous. In no way was it inappropriate. At the playing table it would be gloating but the vugraph room is like the bleachers at a sporting event and Mikael's team had just scored a goal. I just wish that the vugraph room had been recorded; the excitement, the energy, the drama, the “thrill of victory and agony of defeat”, if on film, could have been useful in marketing bridge to both young and old.
Aug. 23, 2018
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Conditions of context were not stated. I automatically assume imps (real bridge). I would not correct at matchpoints either but that is because, as Annie will attest, I suck at matchpoints.

Yes, 5D exclusion with a 1=6=0=6 is a flyer on an extremely rare, unusual and totally made up hand, but IMO not unreasonable. And in any event, I still believe replier was not invited to correct. Blackwood, including keycard, exclusion, and 6 card is a “captain and crew” auction. Pursuant to the Uniform Military Code, a person convicted of mutiny shall be punished by death, but down two in 6N (you duck the SK and SQ and the ST will hold up) when cold for 6H may be the equivalent.
Aug. 23, 2018
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LHO leads the SK with his thumb firmly in the middle of the card and dummy hits with x, KQ6th, –, KQ6th. After exclusion, I don't believe replier was invited to correct.
Aug. 22, 2018
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5M and 4m notrump openings never work for me unless the doubletons are loaded (e.g., AQ, Jxxxx, AQ, Kxxx.) But these are juniors and you make a very good point.
Aug. 22, 2018
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You don't get 27% for HQx. 52% of that 27%, you already made the hand. So, you get just another 13+%, plus the minor chances for the squeeze, etc. That is why I called it 70% as a crude approximation.
Aug. 22, 2018
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Juniors preempt so frequently with 6 card club suits that four trump and a balanced hand becomes a dangerous raise.
Aug. 22, 2018
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Upon reflection

1. At 11:30 last night, lying in my hotel room in Beijing after a big dinner of Peiking duck and beer, I confess that I missed the D8 which meant East's DT9x (3 cases) was a winning position when East also held HQxx. That certainly makes banging hearts better than banging diamonds and closes the gap between heart honors first and two finesses.

2. As for the likelihood that East would preempt with outside queens, didn't Zia say he liked to do so because declarer often went wrong? Because every bridge junior sees themself as being “just like Zia.” My apologies to Michael Rosenberg but I have yet to meet the junior bridge player who says, “I want to be just like Mike.”
Aug. 22, 2018
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Very difficult. South is on his seam and might upgrade from 1N with 7 controls but 4333 is a demerit and 1N is in range. The bid in the suggested sequence I do not like is 4N. It is too presumptuous and takes up all of the N-S bidding space. As shown by this deal, South doesn't know what to do when he gets the keycard response, which suggests he should not be bidding keycard. Better is a control bid (or some serious/nonserious 3N) to give North a chance to visualize South's hand and take control. 7C is also a possible grand and is at least on N-S radar.

But all said and done, short of a relay system where either hand could be well described to the other, I think bidding a grand on these cards is too speculative. (It is a good, but not great, grand. My very crude approximation is 70+%.)
Aug. 22, 2018
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I agree that we should assume that E-W each have 7 black cards on the auction. I would also not expect East to be 7-6 or 7-5 (East would bid again and West would have raised.) Less clear as to whether a junior would preempt on
–, Qxxx, xx, AKxxxxx or
–, Qxx, Qxx, AKxxxxx.
But my experience as NPC for the USA teams strongly confirms he or she will. We pull trump, strip clubs, and play HJ to HA (no cover).

Line one. Two finesses. Heart finesse wins 50%. When heart finesse loses, diamond finesse is 46% (5/11). Total 73%

Line two. Three rounds of hearts. Diamond finesse. This wins when the HQ is doubleton (1/3×48=16%) and when West has HQxx (1/2×36=18%). (I realize that by rejecting 5-1 and 6-0 distributions, my distribution percentages are understated, but the percentages remain in the same proportions and if I normalize my result, the conclusion should still be a good first approximation.) When East has HQxx (18%), the diamond finesse is 50%. When East has Hxx (16%), the diamond finesse is 67%. When East has HQxxx (16%), the diamond finesse is 33%. Initial total: 16+18+9+11+5=59. Normalizing by 100/84 = 70%.

Line three. Three rounds of diamonds. Heart finesse. Three rounds of diamonds wins when the DQ is doubleton and (1/3×48=16%) and when East has DQxx (1/2×36=18%). When West has DQxx (18%), the heart finesse is 50%. When West has Dxx (16%), the heart finesse is 67%. When West has DQxxx, the diamond finesse is 33%. Initial total: 16+18+9+11+5=59. Times 100/84=70%.

Lines two and three are equivalent which we knew was the case by inspection.

It is close between line one and two/three, but I finesse twice.
Aug. 21, 2018
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My partnership agreement and my tendency to rebid 1N are two different things. My agreement is “a weak notrump”. If I am playing “mandatory” support redoubles (depends on partnership), it denies 3 hearts. BUT, my tendency depends largely on vulnerability and IMPs v matchpoints. All white at matchpoints, I want to get to 1N first : my -50 into -90, my +90 into +50, my -100 into -120, my +120 into +100. Vul at imps, I will only bid it with a very good hand in context. Other combinations fit in the middle. I would also give consideration to the caliber and tendencies of my opponents, and possibly state of the match. Passing does not deny 12-14 balanced. Check me if I am wrong but I do not believe this to be conventional, it is just good bridge and the exercise of judgment.
Aug. 21, 2018
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Right-siding is overrated. We prefer not to lie about our pattern.
Aug. 21, 2018
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We play our weak notrump defense (DBL penalty, 2C M's, 2D H, 2H S, 2S S+m, 2N H+m) when they are white v red regardless of their stated range. We so mark it on our card as “nonvul NT v vul treated as weak.” I don't see a problem with that.
Aug. 21, 2018
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You raise an interesting question. If you correctly inform your opponents and they choose not to call the director, do you have an obligation to do so? I would have thought not.
Aug. 21, 2018
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Sometimes hands can be better described by passing first. Anything could be right on this one.
Aug. 20, 2018
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A definite TYP bid (“torture your partner.”) My best guess is 4=4=1=4 GF.
Aug. 20, 2018
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1. Neither Annie nor I see colors. Great question.
2. I was a civil engineering student and I have a slide rule tie clip that works (just four scales.)
3. Cris, my daughter is still in “gradual school”. She started college at the age of 16. She is in her 4th school at the age of 28.
Aug. 20, 2018
David Caprera edited this comment Aug. 20, 2018
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