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All comments by David Caprera
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1N-2N (do you have 5M?)
3C (no)-4C (some 5C-332 slam invite)
4N (“swung and missed”; although my fantasy team drafts next week so perhaps, “bounced off the goalpost.”)-P.
Aug. 27
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They sure think so when at nationals for ten days they play the midnights and the morning game. The only thing they might miss is the Gatlinburg “dinner bell”.
Aug. 27
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Kit, I would be reluctant to pull 3N to 4C and any hand that pulls (e.g., an 8 shooter) is just going to blast 5C. Very hard to know the hand that pulls 3N to 4C because 3N is hopeless and 5C won't have play.
Aug. 27
David Caprera edited this comment Aug. 27
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All true and I would like to think that the position and vulnerability were taken into account in opening 3S, but I am skeptical that the D9 affected their bid. (It is very possible that the D7 did.)
Aug. 27
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I have a bookful. And you may ask, “Why does she keep taking me back?”
Aug. 27
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OMG. Ed, I did not think it was possible. We agree!
Aug. 27
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I know the auction looks silly, east is a passed hand, west only bid 3C, but particularly at imps I am not passing. Them's the rules and if I passed it would not matter whether 10 tricks in clubs was the limit, I would be grabbing my pillow and blanket off the bed because I won't be sleeping there.
Aug. 27
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When you have four card support for partner's major, you should make your best raise.

Lo, Moses came down from the summit and in his arms were the commandments from our god. To the masses he read the first commandment, “When thou havest trump, thou shalt raise.” The crowd cheered and boogied until the sun came up.
Aug. 26
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I would open 1N. (But our notrumps are 14-16.) No problem as everyone has read Bird's book and they lead a major into the jaws.
Aug. 26
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I torture partner with 100+ pages of system notes so we don't have auctions without an agreement. There are many ways to torture partner.
Aug. 26
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As a proponent of 4 card raises, we do make an exception for 3=4=5=1. After the raise to 2S, 2N is a relay and 3C shows this pattern with 3D now NF.
Aug. 26
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Seriously, what is T-Walsh? I assume that “T” means transfer and Walsh refers to a preference to a 4 card major over 5+ diamonds. But are you implying there is more. I was merely suggesting that transfers to a major after 1C balanced were pretty good methods.
Aug. 25
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Pik 1
Aug. 25
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From my observations, if not playing a strong club system, 1C balanced and transfer responses with 1D 5 or 4441 beats the snot out of “Partner, I bet you can't guess my pattern” 1m openings. Add Gazzilli and you should have pretty playable methods.
Aug. 25
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I own a 1965 ES335-TDC Gibson Guitar (the same Clapton played. My folks bought it for me in 8th grade.)
Aug. 24
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Another way to think about this is, “Are you trying to bid games and slams, or part scores?” Raising to 2S may win more part scores. If I play in 2D and the other table is in 2S, I dont really care at imps. (And the 2D pref cant be 5422. We play reverse flan.) But being able to pattern out on game/slam hands is where the imps are. (We play relay methods after 1D-1S-2C-2H (GF).)
Aug. 24
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If the opponents have 9+ hearts and half the deck, modern experts are unlikely to allow the auction to proceed 1D-(P)-1S-(P). So when it does, there is an indication responder is going to have sufficient values to take a second call. This is even more so when the opening bid is virtually all 11 counts and some upgraded 10's. If you had one bid for your life, perhaps 2S should be it. But if you are going to be able to make two or more bids, rebidding 2C and then raising spades is a much better description of your hand.

David, I can see you favor the “Northern European Church.” I am a devout member of the “Pattern Bidder's Temple.” I will defend your right to exercise the religion of your choice but I don't have to agree with it.
Aug. 24
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I keep looking at it. My logic as posted and your logic appear to be the same. The difference was my crude rounding and my choice to use 5/62 which I knew would be enough and not 4 (which with my rounding would make the plays about equivalent.) So, I agree with your 5.51.

But my statement still stands. Experts looking at KQT9 in dummy and having no other reason to win the first round Ax “instinctively duck” 95+% of the time. I have no recollection of an expert declarer winning first round from Ax. (No my experience is not statistically reliable (nor is my memory), but my reason for asking the question was to determine if others agree.)
Aug. 24
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Tell it to Meckstroth and Rodwell.
Aug. 24
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I quibble with your calculation and I think it is closer to 8% but, yes, I do think most experts duck at least 19 out of 20.
Aug. 24
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