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All comments by Dean Strachan
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FYI partner has hearts ~2.1% of the time. This is ignoring any information from RHOs pass.
Oct. 14, 2015
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Good to know.
Oct. 14, 2015
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Maclej - I'm very unlikely to ever play in the Bermuda Bowl but this is my understanding. Correct me if I'm wrong.

To win the Bermuda Bowl you need to:

i) Win through to the Bermuda Bowl via placing high enough, without cheating, in your Zonal Qualifying process*

ii) Win through to the Bermuda Bowl quarter finals by, without cheating, finishing in the top 8 of the round robin stage of the Bermuda Bowl Finals.

iii) Win through to the Bermuda Bowl semi final by, without cheating, scoring more IMPs than your quarter final opponents over 96 boards of two table bridge.

iv) Win through to the Bermuda Bowl finals, without cheating, scoring more IMPs than your semi final opponents over 96 boards of two table bridge.

v) Score, without cheating, more IMPs than your final opponents over 128 boards of two table bridge.

vi) Pass all drug tests.

If you can do all these, plus perhaps tick a couple of other bureaucratic requirements (e.g all players are resident in the country they represent), you win the Bermuda Bowl. It doesn't matter if you did so by making a 1% redoubled grand slam, it doesn't matter if you did so because your opponents ate a dodgy curry the night before, you win the Bermuda Bowl. Look, I think Canadians representing America a few months after moving there is b.s but it's within the rules so there's no arguing.

IF B-Z deliberately gave each other UI, then Poland did not satisfy the six aforementioned criteria, thus they do not deserve to win the Bermuda Bowl. Why would they? What if Klukowski was using a hidden earpiece to get the hands from Vugraph during the semi final, but not during the final. Should Poland keep the Bermuda Bowl? I presume you'd say no. Qualifying for the Bermuda Bowl *is part of winning it*!! If you didn't qualify legitimately, then you didn't win legitimately. And you deserve to be stripped.

As for “they probably would have qualified anyway”.

i) So what? ‘Ben Johnson would have won the Seoul Olympics without taking steroids, therefore he should keep his gold’. Nonsense, right?

ii) How do you know this? Netherlands finished 3rd in the 2014 FIFA World Cup. They were a penalty shootout away from reaching the final. They were one of 13 UEFA teams to qualify, and their qualifying record was 10 games played, 9 wins, 1 draw. 34 goals scored, 5 goals conceded. In the actual World Cup they beat Spain, considered by many the greatest football team *ever*, 5-1!

So when a few months later they had to qualify for the 2016 European championship, which 24 teams would play in, and they were in a qualifying group which 2.5 teams would qualify for, and when none of the other teams in the group had even qualified for the 2014 World Cup … OBVIOUSLY Netherlands were going to qualify. I mean, that goes without saying. Especially when countries such as Iceland (population 330k, never qualified for the European championship), Northern Ireland (1.85m, never qualified), Wales (3m, never qualified), Albania (2.9m, never qualified) all made it.

And yet … Netherlands didn't qualify! They didn't even get close to getting in a playoff to qualify!

So … there's a reason we have qualifiers. Maybe they would have qualified, maybe they wouldn't. We don't know.

iii) In light of ii) this point is irrelevant but anyway … one of Poland's players is a 19 year old. I imagine he's improving very rapidly. One year ago I'm sure he was an excellent bridge player, but almost certainly not as good as he is now.

iv) I've read some comments along the lines of ‘If they were good enough to win it they would have been good enough to qualify’. Then how do you explain Sweden? They only qualified for the finals because a couple of other teams withdrew. THEN they only qualified for the quarter finals because of a one overtrick misscore. So clearly … they can't be that good, right? Except they reached the final and came very very close to winning. If the diamonds weren't 3-1 with a stiff king on one of the final boards of the Bermuda Bowl the scores end up a tie (or within a couple of IMPs). So Sweden are clearly ‘good enough to win the Bermuda Bowl final’, yet they almost didn't qualify for the Bermuda Bowl! Then they almost didn't qualify for the knockout phases (in fact some would argue that they didn't). And didn't Sweden only win the semi-final by a few IMPs

tl/dr - qualifying for the Bermuda Bowl *is as much part of winning the Bermuda Bowl* as qualifying out of the round robin, out of the quarter finals etc. IF B-Z cheated, then Poland won the Bermuda Bowl via cheating.

* Hosts may qualify automatically?
Oct. 14, 2015
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You're arguing teams should keep trophies and masterpoints they won via cheating? Really??
Oct. 14, 2015
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Here are some hands from three teams tournaments. In each your partner has exactly one five card suit. That's all you know. Which five card suit does he have and how sure are you?

http://imgur.com/a/jft8g

BTW these are an I hope exhaustive group of hands from three teams tournaments where your partner has exactly one five card suit. Just wanted to post it to see how necessary or not it is to define which suit you have five cards in.

I'll post answers in a bit.
Oct. 13, 2015
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No comment on this case but I'm FAR from a bridge expert and if told me partner had a five card suit I think I'd be able to identify which suit it is at trick one most of the time…. and at trick three 90%+ of the time …
Oct. 13, 2015
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OK you have

A
ATx
AKT9
KQJxx

You double, partner bids 4h, now what?
Oct. 12, 2015
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What would you need to bid on?
Oct. 12, 2015
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Assume LHO has 7-2-2-2. Then partner averages

2.5
4
3.5
3

Partner and RHO both passing means partner is a little more likely to be longer in spades and thus shorter in hearts but

i) Double caters to the times partner has a penalty hand

ii) He only bids 4h with 4 hearts *or longer*. Where do you get that he's ‘very likely’ to have exactly four hearts, conditional on bidding four hearts?

iii) Doubling is the only way to get to 3N if he has

KTx KQx xxxx Axx

or

KTx KQxx xxx Axx

Yes, he's bidding 3N with some of his hands with four hearts which increases the expected number of hearts for a four hearts bid.

iv) Four hearts has play in some 4-3 fits. My partner actually had

Jx KQxx xxxx Axx

and 4h was a decent contract.
Oct. 11, 2015
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Guys, thanks a lot.
Oct. 11, 2015
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If someone owns Jack/WBridge I'd love to know how they play this.
Oct. 9, 2015
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4 Q
Oct. 9, 2015
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Why don't you post this without the defender's hands? I think it's an interesting playing problem.
Oct. 9, 2015
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The Gettysburg address isn't even the most famous speech by an American associated with the black emancipation movement.
Oct. 7, 2015
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FWIW I don't notice a huge difference between the gap in board 24 when he has a void and that in board 31 when he doesn't.

Sorry for removing the times from the screenshots, I was going to try something then decided not to.
Oct. 7, 2015
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OK here are the 7 examples from the Poland-Israel match where Balicki or Zmudzinksi bid after both partnerships have agreed a suit:

http://imgur.com/a/OseAp

Click on the images to increase their size. I have coloured in blue the person whose bid meets the criteria.

In the second and fifth images both players' bids meet the criteria we're analysing.

One thing that struck me is that the gap will depend on the follow scenarios:

i) Pass when previous bid was a pass
ii) Pass when previous bid was a bid
iii) Bid when previous bid was a pass
iv) Bid when previous bid was a bid.

In the 7 examples I posted we have

Zmudzinski passes after bidding (void). Board 17
Balicki bids after bidding (no void). Board 20
Zmudzinski passes after bidding (no void). Board 20
Zmudzinski passes after bidding (void). Board 24
Zmudzinski passes after passing (no void). Board 27
Zmudzinski passes after bidding (no void). Board 31
Balicki passes after bidding (no void). Board 31.

Board 24 and board 27 feature Balicki doubling in the relevant scenario. Maybe I should have included them too.

The Vugraph hands are here

http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?bbo=y&linurl=http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/vugraph_linfetch.php?id=34185

The video is here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZfhiMO_5lo&t=9m50s



Oct. 7, 2015
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Does someone have a link to all of the hands Zhouji posted, both the .lin files and the video? I'm dog tired but want to take screenshots of the bidding and do my pixel anaylsis and then upload the data … would like to get this done in the next couple of hours … just need the links. Thanks!!
Oct. 7, 2015
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Peter, 4NT was RKC for spades. I have this confirmed from a very good source.
Oct. 7, 2015
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Sweden reached the Bermuda Bowl final but only qualified so after a million other teams withdrew. The Euros are tough. Sweden's qualification is 100% legitimate and congrats to them. I don't want to diminish their accomplishment in any way, just to point out that some excellent teams struggled to qualify from the Euros so you can't just assume that Poland would have made it without B/Z.
Oct. 7, 2015
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Why was Joanna's comment flagged as offensive? She thinks Poland used UI. Joshua Donn said it was offensive *not* to congratulate Poland. I think it's offensive *to* congratulate Poland ***if you think they using UI***. I don't know if they did, or if they didn't but why chide someone for stating their position? Why was ‘I know you think they only won their semi final by cheating but congratulate them anyway’ such a common position?
Oct. 7, 2015
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