Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Dean Strachan
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Now you need to look for similar auctions where they have a singleton,doubleton etc. Otherwise your finding doesn't mean much.

If you find the gaps with a singleton are small, prove that your sample is exhaustive, and provide some absolutely objective proof of what ‘large’ and ‘small’ is (e.g ratio of narrowest part of gap to bidding tray in number of pixels) it would count as beyond reasonable doubt proof.

(Especially since they *both* apparently do it … makes the ‘subconscious tick’ argument less plausible).
Oct. 7, 2015
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If Forrester has the Jh then you need to go up with the Queen, no?

Robson told Forrester ‘I thought you had one more heart and one less club. Heart ace and a heart ruff, King of clubs ruffed in dummy…’
Oct. 7, 2015
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@Ken - the actual hand: http://www.worldbridge.org/repository/tourn/chennai.15/Microsite/Asp/BoardAcross.asp?qboard=020.20..1130

Declarer won the the ten with his ace, cashed the ace of clubs, ended up ruffing the third round of hearts fairly late in the contract to make it.
Oct. 7, 2015
Dean Strachan edited this comment Oct. 7, 2015
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One overriding question is: how much importance to place on ‘spreading the game of bridge’ and ‘giving lesser known countries a chance to compete’. Is it worth having Guadeloupe (that will never win) in the Bermuda Bowl if a team like Sweden (which might win) doesn't (originally) qualify?

Quality v. diversity. Not my place to offer an opinion but it's relevant to know whether having Guadeloupe/Jordan etc. play in the Bermuda Bowl encourages bridge in the countries. There is only a debate if it does. There are ways to encourage bridge in developing countries that don't involve giving them a spot at the Bermuda Bowl. Maybe we should have 4 American and 12 European teams and ship Guadeloupe a bunch of Kit Woolsey books. It's important to know whether that's more efficient or not.
Oct. 4, 2015
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The FIFA World Cup is allocated by zones and there's only one of each country (well there could theoretically be four teams from the country of the UK of GB & NI). This means that teams such as England and France have missed out while teams such as North Korea and Togo qualify. Two of the top three teams in the 2002 World Cup came very close to not qualifying from Europe (both had to win a playoff match to get there).
Oct. 4, 2015
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Opps have 11 combined points and can't really have a biddable heart suit. There's not much inference to be made from their lack of bidding, imo.
Oct. 3, 2015
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'A lead away from JTxx is more likely than a lead away from K'
Oct. 3, 2015
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If those are LHO's only possible combinations we should play low from hand and finesse if he follows. And might that be an extra argument for playing the Q at trick one? If we find out West did lead away from a King we know for sure his club holding can never be x or xx. Thus we can cross to hand with a heart, play a low club from hand and if West follows low we claim on the finesse for extra bonus points.

Perhaps knowing who has the King is good information to have?
Oct. 3, 2015
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A priori West has:

Qxx - 11%
Qx - 26%
xx - 13%
Q - 13%
x - 26%
void - 11%

Let's say for simplicity that he leads a trump from xx 100% of the time and from x 50% of the time.

His new probabilites are

Qxx - 15%
Qx - 35%
Q - 17.5%
x - 17.5%
void - 15%


Let's say we play low from and West follows low, his new probabilities are:


Qxx - 22%
Qx - 52%
x - 26%

Thus, if my assumptions are correct, the finesse is a slight losing play.

***However low to the Jack is a winning play if West always leads a low doubleton in trumps and leads a low singleton trump more than 57.7% of the time.***

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE.

How often would West play the 9 from Q94? Forrester is obviously an absolutely outstanding bridge player but wouldn't most defenders just follow with the 4? If not *always*, then most of the time? I mean, no declarer is ever hooking a club there right? So we might have a situation where it's right to play low from taking the finesse if West plays the 4 and playing high from dummy if we see the 9!
Oct. 3, 2015
Dean Strachan edited this comment Oct. 3, 2015
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If you think his lead is that telling why not lead low and hook a club? That also works if he has Qx (which he wouldn't lead from). Only loses if he has x or xx and didn't lead it. Seems like a crazy play but maybe it's justifiable?
Oct. 3, 2015
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The given logic for playing low at trick one was

i) Forrester is a ‘don’t lead away from a King in a suit contract' fanatic.

ii) The spade Queen might be a menace (I didn't see anyone say why so maybe this was just as ‘this is complicated and if things goes tits up there’s probably some scenario where it's a useful card to have in dummy)

iii) He might have led away from JTxx
Oct. 3, 2015
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Any reason to play one guy for three clubs over the other?
Oct. 3, 2015
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I remember talking a lot with Carolyn when she joined BBO. Never met her but had the overwhelming impression she was one of the good guys. Warm, friendly, interested in my life, never got a sense of ‘billionaire superiority’ … I suspect she treated everyone she met with absolute respect and kindness.
Oct. 1, 2015
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Ethical violation is what someone says when they can't bring themselves to use the c word.
Sept. 19, 2015
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Who is the fourth pair?
Sept. 19, 2015
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nm
Sept. 19, 2015
Dean Strachan edited this comment Sept. 19, 2015
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As a firmly recreational player it's not my place to comment on the merits or otherwise of tablet bridge.

However, I think it's worth a go simply on the basis that it's impossible to judge until it's been tried. It will turn out differently to how anyone thinks. Bob Hamman might hate it. Boye Brogeland might love it. This is just human nature.

IMO it's a very good to try this out for the Reisinger. Boye, Tom, Jeff and anyone else opposed to this gives it a go. This discussion will be much more meaningful after.
Sept. 19, 2015
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A???
Sept. 2, 2015
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Board 8 - that 3h bid is very odd. Am I correct that North is passing 2h with only a small percent of his 3cs hands? i.e South knows his partner's hearts are something like 0h - 5% 1h - 40% 2h - 40% 3h - 15% ? In which case bidding 3h opposite an average of 1.5h is a very losing bid, asking to go for -500 when opps have a part score? If you gave that hand to 100 pros how many would bid 3h?

If they were cheating, why did South rebid 3h? What advantage is this over passing and letting partner take 3d out to 3h?

Board 12 - is the second takeout double normal?? What is partner bids 3s?
Sept. 2, 2015
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What's the ‘expert standard’ meaning of 4h here?
Sept. 11, 2013
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