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3 tricks needed.

1) Playing the Queen

Works if RHO has K93 and LHO has J10

Ducking

2) Works if RHO has J93 and LHO has K10

So, in terms of pure probability, it is a guess.

With K10, LHO obviously must play the 10. RHO can now falsecard with J, since the J and 9 are now equals. When I see the 9, does this decrease the probability that RHO is holding J93? If RHO falsecards even a small percentage of the time, the answer is still yes. This makes, in theory, the holding K93 more likely than J93 since RHO will always play the 9 from K93.

With J10, LHO can play the J or 10. In theory, LHO should play the 10 50% of the time and LHO should play the J 50% of the time. When I see the 10, does this decrease the probability of LHO holding J10 doubleton? The answer is yes.

In theory, RHO has a choice of cards with J93 and can choose to play the J or 9.

In theory, LHO has a choice of cards with J10.

The question is this one: is RHO more likely to randomly choose his cards from J9 than LHO is to randomly choose his cards from J10? For me, the answer is a clear no.

Conclusion: I duck
Jan. 24
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You are correct Tyler. Thanks
Jan. 16
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Thanks. Fixed
Jan. 16
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All good questions and comments. I don't remember the entire hand and honestly, my point was not to analyze the entire defense.

If my partner hesitates and plays the 9, I KNOW he has Q9xx.
I would not feel right playing the SA because of it. For me, the rest of the hand is irrelevant. I wanted to see what people thought about that aspect only. I now realize this might not be optimal.
Dec. 25, 2018
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I did pause 10 seconds at trick 1. East hesitated an additional 15-20 seconds. I understand that the play is logical. However,
I think the break in tempo helped West visualize the position.
Dec. 25, 2018
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The board was played in the afternoon. Why was the appeal not held between sessions?
Nov. 30, 2018
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Amazing
Sept. 25, 2018
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No I lost…I thought double would be 100%
Sept. 3, 2018
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Agree 100%
Aug. 27, 2018
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This should include online bridge as well.
Aug. 27, 2018
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Congrats! Amazing win!
July 30, 2018
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Terrible ruling. Contract should be rolled back to 4H.
July 29, 2018
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Congrats Alex!
July 27, 2018
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I like 4H instead of 4D, which will let South bid RKC.
June 14, 2018
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Clear UI and score should be adjusted.

If I was sitting East, I would tend to balance with 3C or DBL especially playing matchpoints.

After the hesitation, I simply must pass since the UI makes it more appealing to bid 3C or DBL.
May 22, 2018
Fred Pollack edited this comment May 22, 2018
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With my regular partner, this is a forcing situation at IMPS. I think it is superior although I would never assume it is forcing if not discussed.
April 22, 2018
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I would not open the E hand.

1H - 2C
3S

East can now drive the hand to slam
April 7, 2018
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For those who don't believe there is no cheating on BBO, at least two people have admitted to me that they cheated on BBO. They did not really consider this cheating. They were in the same room and they thought it was fun getting masterpoints galore. I think the unethical player does not consider what he is doing to be anything major. For the honest player, it's a horrible feeling.
March 21, 2018
Fred Pollack edited this comment March 21, 2018
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The tempo of the lead was weird: it was incredibly fast. I ran the poll to confirm that the lead was impossible. Since many people think a heart is possible/logical, my example was not the best. Still, the problem of unethical players on BBO is real.
March 21, 2018
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The reality on BBO is that unethical players are protected and honest players are punished. I think BBO and directors need a totally new approchach. Basically, nothing ever happens. This needs to change. Perhaps this hand is not a good example and EW are honest players. If so, I apologize. I am sure honest players who play as much as I do on BBO feel exactly like I do and are so sick of the actual situation.
March 21, 2018
Fred Pollack edited this comment March 21, 2018
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