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I can understand your complaint. It was meant as a compliment. I wrote it because I have played in many important matches where the opponents were everything but friendly and where ethical violations were numerous.

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3 tricks needed.

1) Playing the Queen

Works if RHO has K93 and LHO has J10

Ducking

2) Works if RHO has J93 and LHO has K10

So, in terms of pure probability, it is a guess.

With K10, LHO obviously must play the 10. RHO can now falsecard with J, since the J and 9 are now equals. When I see the 9, does this decrease the probability that RHO is holding J93? If RHO falsecards even a small percentage of the time, the answer is still yes. This makes, in theory, the holding K93 more likely than J93 since RHO will always play the 9 from K93.

With J10, LHO can play the J or 10. In theory, LHO should play the 10 50% of the time and LHO should play the J 50% of the time. When I see the 10, does this decrease the probability of LHO holding J10 doubleton? The answer is yes.

In theory, RHO has a choice of cards with J93 and can choose to play the J or 9.

In theory, LHO has a choice of cards with J10.

The question is this one: is RHO more likely to randomly choose his cards from J9 than LHO is to randomly choose his cards from J10? For me, the answer is a clear no.

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All good questions and comments. I don't remember the entire hand and honestly, my point was not to analyze the entire defense.

If my partner hesitates and plays the 9, I KNOW he has Q9xx. I would not feel right playing the SA because of it. For me, the rest of the hand is irrelevant. I wanted to see what people thought about that aspect only. I now realize this might not be optimal.

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I did pause 10 seconds at trick 1. East hesitated an additional 15-20 seconds. I understand that the play is logical. However, I think the break in tempo helped West visualize the position.

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

I wrote it because I have played in many important matches where the opponents were everything but friendly and where ethical violations were numerous.

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

I thought it was about a 0.5 mile walk i.e about 10 minutes.

Fred Pollack

1) Playing the Queen

Works if RHO has K93 and LHO has J10

Ducking

2) Works if RHO has J93 and LHO has K10

So, in terms of pure probability, it is a guess.

With K10, LHO obviously must play the 10. RHO can now falsecard with J, since the J and 9 are now equals. When I see the 9, does this decrease the probability that RHO is holding J93? If RHO falsecards even a small percentage of the time, the answer is still yes. This makes, in theory, the holding K93 more likely than J93 since RHO will always play the 9 from K93.

With J10, LHO can play the J or 10. In theory, LHO should play the 10 50% of the time and LHO should play the J 50% of the time. When I see the 10, does this decrease the probability of LHO holding J10 doubleton? The answer is yes.

In theory, RHO has a choice of cards with J93 and can choose to play the J or 9.

In theory, LHO has a choice of cards with J10.

The question is this one: is RHO more likely to randomly choose his cards from J9 than LHO is to randomly choose his cards from J10? For me, the answer is a clear no.

Conclusion: I duck

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

If my partner hesitates and plays the 9, I KNOW he has Q9xx.

I would not feel right playing the SA because of it. For me, the rest of the hand is irrelevant. I wanted to see what people thought about that aspect only. I now realize this might not be optimal.

Fred Pollack

I think the break in tempo helped West visualize the position.

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack