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3 tricks needed.

1) Playing the Queen

Works if RHO has K93 and LHO has J10

Ducking

2) Works if RHO has J93 and LHO has K10

So, in terms of pure probability, it is a guess.

With K10, LHO obviously must play the 10. RHO can now falsecard with J, since the J and 9 are now equals. When I see the 9, does this decrease the probability that RHO is holding J93? If RHO falsecards even a small percentage of the time, the answer is still yes. This makes, in theory, the holding K93 more likely than J93 since RHO will always play the 9 from K93.

With J10, LHO can play the J or 10. In theory, LHO should play the 10 50% of the time and LHO should play the J 50% of the time. When I see the 10, does this decrease the probability of LHO holding J10 doubleton? The answer is yes.

In theory, RHO has a choice of cards with J93 and can choose to play the J or 9.

In theory, LHO has a choice of cards with J10.

The question is this one: is RHO more likely to randomly choose his cards from J9 than LHO is to randomly choose his cards from J10? For me, the answer is a clear no.

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All good questions and comments. I don't remember the entire hand and honestly, my point was not to analyze the entire defense.

If my partner hesitates and plays the 9, I KNOW he has Q9xx. I would not feel right playing the SA because of it. For me, the rest of the hand is irrelevant. I wanted to see what people thought about that aspect only. I now realize this might not be optimal.

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I did pause 10 seconds at trick 1. East hesitated an additional 15-20 seconds. I understand that the play is logical. However, I think the break in tempo helped West visualize the position.

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For those who don't believe there is no cheating on BBO, at least two people have admitted to me that they cheated on BBO. They did not really consider this cheating. They were in the same room and they thought it was fun getting masterpoints galore. I think the unethical player does not consider what he is doing to be anything major. For the honest player, it's a horrible feeling.

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The tempo of the lead was weird: it was incredibly fast. I ran the poll to confirm that the lead was impossible. Since many people think a heart is possible/logical, my example was not the best. Still, the problem of unethical players on BBO is real.

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The reality on BBO is that unethical players are protected and honest players are punished. I think BBO and directors need a totally new approchach. Basically, nothing ever happens. This needs to change. Perhaps this hand is not a good example and EW are honest players. If so, I apologize. I am sure honest players who play as much as I do on BBO feel exactly like I do and are so sick of the actual situation.

Fred Pollack

1) Playing the Queen

Works if RHO has K93 and LHO has J10

Ducking

2) Works if RHO has J93 and LHO has K10

So, in terms of pure probability, it is a guess.

With K10, LHO obviously must play the 10. RHO can now falsecard with J, since the J and 9 are now equals. When I see the 9, does this decrease the probability that RHO is holding J93? If RHO falsecards even a small percentage of the time, the answer is still yes. This makes, in theory, the holding K93 more likely than J93 since RHO will always play the 9 from K93.

With J10, LHO can play the J or 10. In theory, LHO should play the 10 50% of the time and LHO should play the J 50% of the time. When I see the 10, does this decrease the probability of LHO holding J10 doubleton? The answer is yes.

In theory, RHO has a choice of cards with J93 and can choose to play the J or 9.

In theory, LHO has a choice of cards with J10.

The question is this one: is RHO more likely to randomly choose his cards from J9 than LHO is to randomly choose his cards from J10? For me, the answer is a clear no.

Conclusion: I duck

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

If my partner hesitates and plays the 9, I KNOW he has Q9xx.

I would not feel right playing the SA because of it. For me, the rest of the hand is irrelevant. I wanted to see what people thought about that aspect only. I now realize this might not be optimal.

Fred Pollack

I think the break in tempo helped West visualize the position.

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

If I was sitting East, I would tend to balance with 3C or DBL especially playing matchpoints.

After the hesitation, I simply must pass since the UI makes it more appealing to bid 3C or DBL.

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

How about a simple:

1H - 2C

3S

East can now drive the hand to slam

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack

Fred Pollack