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All comments by Han Peters
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Nice Roland.
Feb. 21
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I held this hand in a Dutch league game. I've changed the east-west hands for the sake of the story. In reality east held king-doubleton of diamonds and the club queen was offside. All lines would have worked except playing diamonds from the top.

Nineteen declarers played 3NT from the south, all getting a low spade lead. About half of the declarers went down, sometimes 3 or 4 tricks, presumably all playing diamonds immediately. I thought it was a difficult decision.
Feb. 15
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Thanks Paolo, I think I fixed it.
Feb. 7
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Given the actual south hand and given north is balanced:

24: 0.2030%
25: 0.1170%
26: 0.0561%
27: 0.0237%
28: 0.0120%

Either one of us made a coding mistake, or the fact that we only hold 5HCP does seriously affect partner's chances of having 24+ HCP. They go up by roughly a factor 4.

(I did check your claim Max, and I found very similar numbers to yours. It seems you didn't use that opener is balanced or you would have found slightly higher numbers.)
Feb. 3
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Partner had KTxx KJTxxx xx x.

If you double you end up in 4H, which can go down if they find a spade lead (preemptor has a singleton and can get 2 ruffs), but it will often make.

If you pass and you lead any diamond, 3NT makes.

If you pass and lead anything else, 3NT can be beaten.
Feb. 3
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I bid 4D, partner passed holding xx KJxxx J Txxxx. Not the best contract.
Feb. 3
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Partner's hand was KQJTxxx KQJx Tx -. I passed, and partner bid 5S, which looks normal. After a diamond lead 5SX goes two off, while 5C could also go 2 down (3 if they misguess the clubs, which they shouldn't).

I don't know if partner would bid 5S after a double.

Opening a gambling 3NT might have worked out better.
Feb. 3
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I think that the spade ruff line can be improved by first cashing the ace king of spades, and by crossing in hearts instead of clubs. That way there is less risk of a spade or club ruff, and should west hold a doubleton spade you may still be able to switch to a different (winning?) line.

My impression is that this line is better than crossruffing.
Jan. 30
Han Peters edited this comment Feb. 2
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I do think that the leading French players tend to preempt more conservatively than the leading pairs of many other countries.
Jan. 25
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The most impressive was the dummy who, noticing that partner had completely lost his head, made up that story to make his partner look good.
Jan. 25
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Third hand high is also a great guideline for beginners. Still, at some point they may want to think about situations where it is better to play low.
Jan. 18
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I believe that some recent world champions play that a direct 3S is weak.
Jan. 15
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Agree with Bob on both accounts.
Jan. 13
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You can easily allow any style you like.
Jan. 12
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Hi Csaba,

I think that what you sketch is very good with respect to information leakage, but the gain in comparison with traditional methods lies mostly in the rest of the play, not in the opening lead.
Jan. 12
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Regarding the Qx doubleton, I didn't think about that. I didn't want to pick an extreme hand like AJxx xx KQxx xxx, where I think that bidding stayman would do much better, or xxxx AQ Kxxx Jxx, where nobody would be surprised if bidding Stayman would do poorly.

So, I picked one ace, one king, etc, and a hand that looked not so special to me. It seems like I could have done better.
Jan. 11
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You would have to make a choice regarding selecting the lead, yes. But for pairs it seems reasonable to just take the leads that give the maximal number of tricks. I understand the flaw you mentioned, but it wouldn't bother me. :)
Jan. 11
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I agree with you regarding the effect of putting the 4333's in 1NT-3NT. I wonder how large the difference will be though.

I found that when ending in 3NT after both stayman and puppet stayman, regular stayman won by about 0.07 imps. This was an earlier study where I didn't specify the north hand but gave a random 4-2-4-3 10-count. The number of hands used in different steps were also slightly different.

For the article I thought it would be nicer to work with a specific north hand.
Jan. 11
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I don't think that it is obviously more useful at pairs. Admittedly, very few things are obvious to me.
Jan. 11
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Meike said she would put the code in a github. I don't know what that means, but I think it is what Michael asked for.

When I have the time I will describe in this thread exactly which assumptions I made for those who are interested but prefer not to read the code.

There have been a number of very interested follow up suggestions. I'm not going to follow up on most of them, but I hope somebody else will.
Jan. 11
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