Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Han Peters
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I think 1H is automatic and would't call it a psych. I would expect a large majority of top players to bid, but perhaps I am wrong. If it is the expected call on the hand, it cannot be a gross misstatement.
May 26
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I also missed the fact that double would be penalty after such an agreement. It looks really strange to me, as it makes many common hands unbiddable.

Let's make the penalty double sleep on the couch tonight.
May 26
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Third hand high
March 9
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The little Spanish I know is plenty for describing your methods Gonzalo.
March 8
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3H forcing with clubs, 3S forcing with diamonds.
March 8
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Definitely for worse.
March 7
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Just stick to Stayman and Blackwood with player B.
Feb. 14
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It won't cancel out, it has nothing to do with cancellation.
Jan. 8
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I don't know if BL were cheating, and if they did, I have no idea how and to which extend. Saying that they cheat based on a few cherry-picked successful leads is crazy. Saying that they don't based on a few cherry-picked unsuccessful leads seems just as crazy.
Dec. 24, 2018
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I share your reluctance to rely upon double dummy information when it comes to leads. Nevertheless, they can give interesting and sometimes surprising information that can cause you to see things differently. An example is the enormous bias in favour of major suit leads after 1NT-3NT.

(My name is Han btw, but no problem.)
Dec. 24, 2018
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I think some of the comments here are really misguided.

Overstating the strangeness of the heart lead on the first hand gives the accused something to argue with. While a heart lead wouldn't have been my choice here, I wouldn't have been surprised if it proved to be the optimal double dummy lead (it doesn't though: see below). I think that there is nothing strange about occasionally hitting your partner's suit by leading a 2- or 3-card major in this auction, even when holding a 5-card minor.

What is really suspicious however, perhaps one of the strongest indications of the worst kind of cheating, is a pair consistently leading the suit in which partner has the most strength. This is what we should focus on in my opinion, but unfortunately it requires a lot more work than just looking at two hands. One should look at all available hands satisfying certain criteria.

By looking at single hands and anecdotal evidence we not only risk forming an incorrect conclusion ourselves, but it also weakens, or at least distracts from, a possible case against possible cheaters.


As for the best double dummy leads, a low spade is better than a low diamond (0.288 imps on average), and a low heart is worse than a low diamond (0.292 imps on average). Given those numbers it shouldn't surprise you that a low spade is better than a low heart (0.523 imps on average).

These numbers are obtained by dealing 1000 hands each using simple but (I think) quite reasonable assumptions for the north-south hands. For example, I allow opener to have upgraded a 14-count with a 5-card suit, I allow opener to have a 5-card major but only when 5332, and I allow responder to have a 4-card major but only when 4333.

I merely provide these numbers since the double dummy analyses in the book by Bird and Anthias were mentioned earlier. I don't give a lot of weight to them. I think that finding the best defense will often be much harder after a spade or heart lead than after a diamond lead, assuming of course that you don't signal with your hands.
Dec. 24, 2018
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The most interesting point I find the statement that partner wouldn't double with 6 clubs. Could you share your thoughts Frances?
Dec. 15, 2018
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On the first board partner should cash the diamond ace.
Dec. 4, 2018
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You gave declarer the spade jack in the text, but it is ours.
Nov. 26, 2018
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It is definitely a statement about the person's character, but not necessarily ad hominem.
Nov. 24, 2018
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Just to get the facts clear, was the accused a liar?
Nov. 23, 2018
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Short spades.
Oct. 18, 2018
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In what sense is Joel's comment over the top? It certainly is on topic, and rather neutrally written. Perhaps you think not the comment but the opinion is over the top?
Sept. 24, 2018
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Richard's question seems quite valid, and I don't think that he is asking it because he wants to defend the blue team. Richard is genuinely interested in statistics and in ways to prove cheating. His point is that if you claim (for example) that the Italians never had big accidents after their “take out doubles” , but your claim is based on a partial data set that is not randomly selected, you should worry about the way it was selected.

He points out correctly that even if Avon was able to find all hands that are currently available and went through every effort to find those hands, there might still be a problem.
Sept. 16, 2018
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Thanks for your thoughts Graham!
Sept. 12, 2018
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