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Henk Boer

Henk Boer

http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/the-videos-speak-balicki-zmudzinski/?cj=259357

Michal, can you (or anybody) check them and recalculate the appropriate test results?

Henk Boer

Total nr of boards: 116

- Balicki on lead: 56

- Zmudzinski on lead: 60

- Balicki held a 5-card as longest suit: 55 times

- Balicki made the 5-gesture: 22 times

Again the hypothesis is that the 5-finger-gestures by Balicki are independent from holding a 5-card suit (as longest suit).

————— No5card —- 5card

NoSignal —- 57 ——— 37

5-Signal —- 4 ———– 18

Total ——– 61 ———– 55

The expected numbers are based on:

5-signal occurred 22 times out of 116

5Card occurred 55 times out of 116

————— No5card —— 5card

NoSignal —- 49.43 ——— 44.57

5-Signal —- 11.57 ———– 10.43

Result:

X2 = 12.89

p-value = 0.000331

Henk Boer

Henk Boer

Regarding p(5card) and p(no5card): the overall theorical p might be 0.443, but it may depend on whether you declare or not and on the bidding style of the player. Just like I used the whole set to determine the probability of a 5-signal (13/60) I used the whole set to determine the probability of a 5card (30/60).

Henk Boer

The numbers are based on my own observations.

————— No5card —- 5card

NoSignal —- 28 ——— 19

5-Signal —- 2 ———– 11

Total ——– 30 ———– 30

The expected numbers are based on the fact that the 5-signal occurred 13 times out of 60:

————— No5card —— 5card

NoSignal —- 23.5 ——— 23.5

5-Signal —- 6.5 ———– 6.5

Result:

X2 = 7.95

p-value = 0.00480

Henk Boer

Henk Boer

Henk Boer

I first selected all 116 video records from Hammond's famous excel sheet at http://www.bridgescoreplus.com and then made a selection with the following criteria:

- Only the boards where Zmudzinski is on lead

- Only the records where BZ did not bid

Total nr of boards: 31

Then I did my own observation on these 31 boards to determine whether B signalled a 5 card or not. I regarded a 4 card signal as ‘No signal’. In one occasion the 5-signal was very late. I still counted this as ‘5-Signal’.

The result was the following table:

———— No5card —- 5card

NoSignal —- 14 ———– 9

5-Signal —- 2 ———– 6

Total ——– 16 ———– 15

I would have expected the following count if there was no relation between the signal and the hand:

EDIT: I changed the expected results, since indeed the 5-signal only occurs 8 times out of 31.

———— No5card —- 5card

NoSignal —- 11.87 ——- 11.13

5-Signal —- 4.13 ——– 3.87

Result of the calculations:

X2 = 3.06

p-value = 0.08035

I removed my first conclusion since the values are now different. Is this significant enough?

Henk Boer

BZ62: edge;edge;small;medium;medium;small;medium

Edit: nrs corrected

Henk Boer