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All comments by Jonathan Mestel
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I disagree very strongly with doubling on a hand like this with so much potential. The main advantage of such doubles is to reach 2x when we have nowhere in particular to go. If we are happy for opener to reopen with a double or bid 2NT we should pass, in my view.
Aug. 16, 2016
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Well well. Pass never entered my head. Even my first pass was an effort.
Aug. 16, 2016
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What did declarer play at trick 1? I'll assume the 3.
Assuming he has 6 clubs, I should play him for a doubleton spade or diamond. If he has a doubleton diamond I return a club, win A on the first round and lead another club. He will now have a guess for the contract. Seems simpler just to play for KQ.
Aug. 16, 2016
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“…if he plays the queen or jack it's more likely to be a singleton than a doubleton.”

Is that right? Approximately, half of (J10 or QJ) is about the same as stiff J.

But it's more complicated now I think about it. Can he play the Q from Q10 half the time? Seems unlikely, which means he shouldn't play the Q and J with equal probability from QJ.
Aug. 16, 2016
Jonathan Mestel edited this comment Aug. 16, 2016
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You mean “righty” not “lefty”? What form of scoring?
At first glance if lefty is 5224 or 5134 I want to do different things.
Aug. 16, 2016
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Oh, I missorted my hand. It's better for the digestion.
Aug. 15, 2016
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I was envisaging “I'm all shook up: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy…”
Aug. 15, 2016
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Yes, probably it is. If 10 is stiff on the left, we get to ruff a heart your way. I didn't see the ace of trumps was an entry…
Aug. 15, 2016
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I think I prefer k, A and AK. If they split, A, ruff and I think ruff (rather than the 2nd heart as above.)

If LHO has a stiff honour we're still alive.
Aug. 15, 2016
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LHO can see that his K might disappear, so I'll show him A and then low to the 10.

Of course, if it turns out I'm actually playing in no trumps I'll go down more this way.
Aug. 15, 2016
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I dont understand why 4 guaranteed a control, unless 4 actually denied one. AQJxxx Kxx Kx xx? But I'll answer according to the stated conditions. I assume 3 was NF as we're not told otherwise, so Frances' fear is unfounded.
Aug. 14, 2016
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Pass is obvious and fine. Love all at pairs I'm going to stick in a lead directional nonforcing 2 bid - there's no way 1 would be passed out.
Aug. 14, 2016
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Sometimes I spend time away from bridge trying to teach students mathematics at University. We are conscious that certain tests and assessment procedures we adopt may be biased towards one gender or cultural group. As a half-hearted experiment, we recently tried to compare risk-taking between groups by including 3 multiple choice tests as part of their yearly assessment. (We would need a license to do this kind of thing with animals, but humans are fair game.)

In test A, there was no penalty for wrong answers. So assuming students were merely trying to maximise their marks, there was no reason why they should not guess on questions they could not answer.

In test B, there was a penalty for a wrong answer, such that if you guessed every answer you should expect to score 0 on average.

In test C, there was a heavier penalty for wrong answers, so that out-and-out guessing had a negative expectation.

These rule differences were carefully explained before each test.
We expected that there might be fewer blank answers for test A than for B, and that possibly our female students and certain cultures might shy away from answering C-questions.

In fact, we found no significant variation between the test-types. People had habits which seemed independent of the rules.

Some students had a mature attitude - “Why would I guess an answer? I want to learn how to work it out.” Others just ignored or forgot the scoring rules when answering the questions. Under stress, they do what seems natural to them.

There were some slight indications of gender and especially cultural tendencies, but these seemed to be deeply ingrained in personality and were not triggered by the kinds of penalties we were willing to inflict.

To return this to a bridge-context, we all make riskier bids non-vul than vul. If this result carries over, one might predict similar ratios of vul to non-vul risks between the genders.
Aug. 12, 2016
Jonathan Mestel edited this comment Aug. 12, 2016
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You might want to remove the duplicate 5 and 3 in your description.
Aug. 12, 2016
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I have commented on this hand elsewhere. 3 is surely forcing, and most likely partner is angling for 3NT. We could hardly be more suitable. Why else did we bid 3? 3NT, 2nd choice 4
Aug. 12, 2016
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Agreed; but I'll double and hope to get away with it. For me 2 would also show s.
Aug. 12, 2016
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Because 4 might systemically be (a) a splinter or (b) to play? Like it or not, your methods are that 3-level fit-jumps are inv+.

There are other situations where one can get caught like this. You decide to bid slam, but if partner has the exact cards a grand is possible. So you cue at the 5-level on the way and partner, bless his cotton socks, thinks for a while and signs off…
Aug. 12, 2016
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Thanks to everyone for comments, several of which had not occurred to me.

At the table, I felt that with the UI I had to pass, and we scored +170.

Partner held AKxxxx xx x Axxx. I personally regard this as too strong for the 3 rebid. If partner bids more cautiously with the uncertainty, it slightly undermines Kit's argument that we are free to do as we choose. Change one of her s to a and we would have gained from the confusion by staying low, which would perhaps have been unfair.

The match was played in a private home. Director calls would have been cumbersome, over a phone. It is unlikely opponents would have requested a ruling unless I'd actually stood up and looked at partner's hand, so the onus was on us to get it right first time.
Aug. 11, 2016
Jonathan Mestel edited this comment Aug. 11, 2016
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The “idea” of 3 was to help partner over a 5minor bid by LHO, say AKxxx AKx x xxxx. It seemed more informative than 2NT.
Aug. 10, 2016
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I thought fit jumps were agreed (they would been after an overcall), but obviously partner wasn't sure after the double. They can be invitational or game-forcing.
Aug. 10, 2016
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