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Bid 3NT
Oct. 24, 2019
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I guess I misunderstood what you meant by “I want to optimize my wins against weaker teams” then. Sorry.
Oct. 24, 2019
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Paul: I was responding to Ron's comment
Oct. 24, 2019
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So I make +750 for +12 IMPs if I bid the Grand and it makes, and I lose 1530 for -17 IMPs if I bid it and it goes down. The implied odds are 17/29 = 59%.

If I expect to win 1 IMP per board on the other 6 boards on the 20 VP scale, then I go from a “guaranteed” +6 IMPs = 13 VPs to either +18 IMPs = 17 VPs (+4) or -11 IMPs = 5 VPs (-8). The implied odds there are even worse (66%). And don't even get me started on the possibility that the weaker team might stop in game.
Oct. 23, 2019
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Seems like you need Spades and Clubs to both behave. Spades will behave 68% + the odds that they are 4-1 and pard has the J (2/7 of 26%) + the odds pard has the T and the J drops singleton (1/4 of the above). I don't know what the exact number is, but call it 75%. Now Clubs have to either be 3-2-2 around the table or pard has the queen or various other good things can happen like an opposition Q dropping early or 4-2-1 around the table but we have enough timing to ruff twice… Putting it all together, it feels like Grand is just about on the IMPs border of ~70% to make….

So, if I'm playing a better team I risk it, and if I'm playing a weaker team I don't.
Oct. 23, 2019
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@Carl - this is why I prefer the Just Declare tournaments.
Oct. 23, 2019
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Am I playing a stronger team or a weaker team (compared to my own)?
Oct. 23, 2019
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Partner has a boring looking 3523 hand with some strength in the black suits. If I play 2 as GF then I want to go back in time and make a non-GF bid. if 2 is just strong with but not necessarily GF, I pass.
Oct. 23, 2019
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The question isn't what you bid here, it's whether South has used the UI of North's incorrect alert to make a fishy bid.
Oct. 22, 2019
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Well, this has all been very educational for me. I played a discouraging 8 on the theory that I really wanted partner to lead a club. Partner duly led his singleton club, and my Q won as declarer wasn't in on the joke (presumably hoping to cut our communication). The 8 back A ruff, and despite the 8 signal, partner now led a diamond on the premise that if I'd had the A I would've made a positive signal on trick one, and they made 10 tricks.
Oct. 22, 2019
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Sometimes people get derailed by the bidding and instead of answering the interesting question about defense say things like “I'd never be in this situation because I would've bid xxx”, or in this case, “I'd never ever ever play with a partner who wanted to play this kind of system”. Those options were for you.
Oct. 17, 2019
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run a simulation?
Oct. 13, 2019
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also an extra ‘s’ in “disstribution”
Oct. 13, 2019
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How much of this nuance are you required to inform declarer of?
Oct. 11, 2019
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That looks sensible except there's no way for Responder to make a penalty double.
Oct. 9, 2019
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Use 2 for Flannery and then keep your weak 2
Oct. 8, 2019
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Can I assume it's IMPs because at matchpoints I would have a clear 3 bid?
Oct. 6, 2019
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I'm pretty sure I wasn't invited to the party.
Oct. 3, 2019
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That makes it sound like you believe 3 is less accurate. Or perhaps that you don't trust your Partner to use his brain.
Oct. 3, 2019
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2 is the systemic response to 1NT forcing after starting 1 with 4=5=2=2. This particular hand you might upgrade to 2NT, but subtract a jack (say make the hearts AQTxx) and you just bid 2 and … it's fine. Worst case is Responder had 3 spades, 1 heart and 4 clubs … then 2 is a perfectly viable bid with the 5 card suit.
Sept. 29, 2019
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