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Doesn't anyone want to bid 3NT over 3♦? On this hand it works out poorly, I admit (but better than 4NT, eh?) and it does describe my hand perfectly and I do have stoppers for whatever the heck East has.

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I voted Pass but now that I think about it for 30 seconds, I've changed my mind. If my long suit were a minor, then I can legitimately worry about missing a major suit game. But since my long suit is a major, what's the problem? If we can make 4♠ then we can make 4♥.

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The probability model in poorly stated in the OP, so let me try to restate it. Once you look at your hand, you will be able to compute a “4♥ defense score” randomly and uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. You will also have a “4♠ offense score” which is an independent random number between 0 and 1. Meanwhile, your partner also has a 4♥ defense and a 4♠ offense score, which are also randomly and independently distributed.

If the sum of your and partner's defense score is between 1 and 2, then you defeat 4♥, and if it is between 0 and 1, then 4♥ makes. Similarly if the sum of the offense scores is between 1 and 2 then 4♠ makes, otherwise 4♠ goes down.

The opponents always pass, so the possible auctions are:

P,P P,4S P,X,P P,X,4S X,P X,4S 4S

Solving this will take more space than I have in the margin, but in my experience in this sort of problem, you want to have the same probability for each possible auction, which means that “probably” the answer is you want to double 2/7ths = 28% of the time.

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I think the reason to ask whether the pass should be forcing in theory is to help us decide whether the forcing pass should be an alertable call or not.

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In the chess way, if you are in the bottom half, then you will do better in the Real Event if you sandbag beforehand. In the bridge way, all players have the incentive to do well (improve their seeding) at all times.

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I thought this was a clear case of a 1♣ open because you'd have trouble after red suits get bid in your face (by partner or by opps), but it looks like I am in the solid minority here.

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Wasn't the old rule that you should be 2 tricks short of your bid to preempt red-on-white? And don't I have 4 tricks in my hand? Or does “reasonable” mean something else?

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

If the sum of your and partner's defense score is between 1 and 2, then you defeat 4♥, and if it is between 0 and 1, then 4♥ makes. Similarly if the sum of the offense scores is between 1 and 2 then 4♠ makes, otherwise 4♠ goes down.

The opponents always pass, so the possible auctions are:

P,P

P,4S

P,X,P

P,X,4S

X,P

X,4S

4S

Solving this will take more space than I have in the margin, but in my experience in this sort of problem, you want to have the same probability for each possible auction, which means that “probably” the answer is you want to double 2/7ths = 28% of the time.

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe

Jordan Lampe