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All comments by Ken Gamble
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What do partnerships with 3M and 6m do when partner opens 1NT? Seems like a conflict between puppet and 4-way transfers?
Sept. 23
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Since this player is not active on BW, let me counter some of these arguments:

Assuming responder does not have a garbage hand:

1. Opener's 15-17 count becomes 16-18 because of a length point in the major. So he doesn't not have that bad “15” count.

2. What strains are available besides 3NT, 3M, 4M? With five in a major, playing in 4m or 5m will seldom be advantageous. One loses playing in 2NT but many of the other systems here have that problem too.

3. If responder has 5-2 in the majors, he would Jacoby transfer so losing 5-3 strain in the OM should not occur.

4. Will any of the conventions posted here, prevent a 5-1 fit in the major from being played in 3NT when the points are there.

With garbage Stayman hands, most of the systems described here will be at the 3 level with a 5-4 fit. 2C puppet is the exception. So this is the major advantage of 2C puppet as far as I can see.
Sept. 22
Ken Gamble edited this comment Sept. 22
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I asked our club's top ranking player what treatment he uses when biding 1NT with a five card major. His approach is to jump in his major when partner bids 2C. He argues when partner has a garbage stayman hand then they have found a 9-card trump suit so he is not too worried. He does this for both majors and with any 15-17 point range.

He says he has a lot of success with this approach with only a few failures. Probably worth some simulation runs.
Sept. 21
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Are you showing 5-5 minors when bidding 1NT-3C and 1NT-3D?

In the following auction, does 3D ask for the major if partner has one?

1N-2N-3C-3D?
2N= asking about a 5-card major.
3C= don't have one, but may have a 4-card major.
3D= what do you have?
Sept. 19
Ken Gamble edited this comment Sept. 19
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I wish. “He” is my partner. I have not found any articles on this. Does anyone know who Bell is/was?
Sept. 19
Ken Gamble edited this comment Sept. 19
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The way he described Bell was: Over 2C Stayman, 2NT = 5-card major min, 3M = 5-card major with max. Others use 3C for 5M and max. I'm sure there are other variations
Sept. 19
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Excellent Doug!
So just having 2 Aces and no tens, one should never invite with 4432 hands (23% making game). Correct?

But KnR is saying two Aces is worth 9 points which is probably invitational to most players. So if one invites, the 16 point notrump partner will accept and we're in a 23% game.

Amazing that taking away the tens and nines will lower the probability from 66% to 23%.

What simulator are you using?
(edited to correct typo)
July 6
Ken Gamble edited this comment July 6
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Actually the simulations I would like to see are:
1. North has 16-17 points so game is bid on every shuffle.
2. South has 8 points with two Aces, 2 four-card suits and no tens.
3. Same with 2 tens.
4. Repeat 1-3 with one or both suits being a major.

I would be interested in how many shuffles produce 9+ tricks in notrump or 10+ tricks in a major.
July 6
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I didn't consider tens and nines which was clearly an error as most are using these cards for their evaluations. My partnership doesn't open 1NT with a 5 card major so I was being a little selfish here.

But I'm very happy with the comments and they will change some of my ideas.
July 6
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Got it! Never used KnR.
July 6
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Yes, that's the simulation I'm referring to. Am I reading the results wrong? I see no cases where he gets up to 9 tricks.
July 6
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Have you noticed the large discrepancy between KnR and Ted's simulations?

Two Aces = 9 tricks for KnR and ~8.1 for the simulations. Seems like a huge difference. Tens and Nines are not included in either.

Anyone else done simulations on this subject? How heavy can we rely on KnR?
July 6
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Thanks Ken,
I saw your post after mine. Seems clear the 9's are important here.
July 6
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Looks like I'm on the losing side of the split personality. However, I recently came across some simulations ran by Ted Muller. If you trust his simulations, then two Aces and two 4-card suits will yield 8.1 tricks on the average.

Having 3 tens will add to the average, but will they add up to 9 tricks?

http://tedmuller.us/Bridge/Simulations/Sim003-RespondingTo15-17Notrump-Part-1.htm
July 6
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Even though it probably won't change any of the arguments above, all 4 hands are presented below. Most commentators had already a pretty good idea what West and South hands were.

N: AK 983 KQ9643 42
S: Q2 6 AJ87 KQT865


E: 96543 AKQ4 void AJ97
W: JT87 JT752 T52 3
July 4
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By agreement a cuebid is the only forcing action by advancer. Both 2D and 3D can be passed.
July 3
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East asked South about the 3 bid. Just before his lead, he asked declarer to correct partner's explanation if it was wrong.
July 3
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East's Hand:

96543
AKQ4
void
AJ97
July 3
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Thanks, I read it again.
April 20
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I was not at the table when this happened. But suppose after a few tricks, the declarer, heavy in concentration, forgot whether he was in a suit or notrump contract.

Of course most of us would gladly tell him, but I don't see anywhere in the laws that forces the defenders to tell him.

I guess the director could force the defenders to tell even though it may not in the laws.
April 20
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