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All comments by Michael Rosenberg
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That consideration (fear of the 3rd ) would be relevant if considering the initial play of to the Q. But, if playing to ace then to Q, the only relevance is if you think RHO might play the J from KJ third. Since we don't believe that, when the J is played, declarer can duck the second round to cater to KJ doubleton.
Given the above, there is no situation where a third will be relevant - and it's truly irrelevant once West plays low on the first heart.
Oct. 6
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If you're going to go into all that detail comparing the two lines. including discussing the ‘meaning’ of the 5, perhaps you want to at least mention all the relevant holdings.

If East has stiff K, only to the ace succeeds.

If you want to go REALLY deep, you can discuss the posssbility of a brilliant play by East from (say) xxx, Kx, Qxxxx, 109x. I doubt Simon seriously considered that - but maybe he did….
Oct. 6
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Other Michael R: Most structures handle that differently. For example, 1m-1, 2N-3 is often used to show 4-4 in the majors.
Oct. 6
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Paul H:“John's results above are striking enough that I'm at least willing to consider that it may be a mistake not to check on the 5-3 fit in such auctions.”

As I said elsethread, if you have the method to find out if partner has 3-card support and THEN offer a COG, it is CLEAR to do so. If all you can do is show any COG with 5-card H then it's less clear what you should do (but I would still tend to offer the choice).
Oct. 6
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Paul H: “Analysis using single dummy leads, then DD for the remainder of play, shows that the difference is essentially all about the opening lead.”

It doesn't take double-dummy analysis, or a genius, to figure out that the one card played with the least information is the one that costs the most.

“One problem with DD is trying to get all the conditions right:”

That is a problem - but far from the biggest.

“Bottom line: I consider DD results as useful information, not the last word.”

My “bottom line” is that it's not just useless - it's worse than useless. Because it influences opinion based on a false premise.

When you do a double-dummy analysis, you (or, rather, the Program) basically ‘select’, for each player at each turn, the ‘best’ (most successful) play - or equal-best. The route(s) followed often look nothing like what would occur in actual play.

A proper single-dummy analysis will attempt to choose only the ‘percentage’ action for each player at each turn.

The single-dummy analysis and double-dummy routes will often (I think usually) look nothing like each other. Why use the latter ‘universe’ to determine what we think actually will/rates to happen in the former ‘universe’?
Oct. 6
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Paul H: “We know double dummy understates the chance of making 3NT, because they always make the killing lead”

Yes. It also OVERSTATES the chance of making, because declarer always ‘guesses’ perfectly which suit to attack and how to play each suit. Declarer has no problem guessing a queen, dropping a stiff king, or spinning the 10 with Q108x facing Kxx (when that's right).

Now these ‘compensating errors’ may have an overall effect of bring the ‘average’ down to ‘correct’ - on some hands. On a particular hand, double-dummy will often be way off.

But I think this sort of analysis is irrelevant. It has nothing to do with how bridge is actually played. By considering double-dummy anal;ysis as a useful tool for determinng single-dummy decisions, much of the bridge world is being hoodwinked here.
Oct. 6
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Andy B: I think that is one of the cases where there no ‘Standard’. I have played it F1 and I've played it NF.

It's less important to play it as forcing than 3 in the OP auction because having available a forcing rebid in a minor is less important than in a major. Bidding 3 on your auction with a forcing 3 bid is uncomfortable - but not as uncomfortable as having to bid 3 on the OP auction.

Also, on the OP auction, you always have the option (however distasteful) of bidding 3. Whereas on your auction with a NF 3 bid you are totally stuck.

I guess this last is an important ‘third reason’ that I should have emphasized earlier.
Oct. 6
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Mike M: It's true that after 2/1 in comp that raising or rebidding your suit at the 2-level is (fairly) Standard as NF.

Less clear in Standard (or desirability) is opener rebidding his suit at the 3-level. Some play it NF. Some play it Forcing. Some play it forcing only if it's 3.

But all that is over 2/1 in comp. Here we have 3/2 in comp - very different. There are two reasons why I think it's Standard/normal for 3 over 2N in the OP auction to be forcing.

a) It's ‘Standard’ that, after a 3-level invitational bid that opener rebidding 3 of his suit (or, for that matter, making any bid below game) is Forcing.

b) The difference between 2/1 in comp and 3/2 in comp is this: in the former, opener has a cuebid available BELOW 3 of his suit. In the latter, he does not.
So while I can (barely) see 1(2m)-2(P), 3 NF as playable - because you can cuebid 3m with a GF -, I see no analogy with 1(2)-2N - clubs, inv+ P), 3. It just doesn't make any theoretical or practical sense to me to play this as NF.
Oct. 5
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One of several reasons to answer “Other”….
Oct. 5
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Offering a choice of games is desirable. But transfers (at least the basic method) is not best for that. If you offer a choice of games after transferring, opener can rarely choose 3N with 3-card support - responder can have too many shapes. Same is true after 2N opening, unless you have some special method (such as I do or French Standard does).

You are much better off with a direct chackback method for COG. Have partner show 3-card support, THEN offer a choice. Now it's a ‘real’ choice.
Oct. 5
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Since 2N() is invitational or better, I would think it normal - and Standard - that opener's 3 is forcing.
Oct. 5
Michael Rosenberg edited this comment Oct. 5
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For the 5-4 thing, I've always written 5-4 or 4-5 as specific, and (5-4) for either way.
Oct. 5
Michael Rosenberg edited this comment Oct. 8
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Well, if he's 3-3-1-6 maybe he should bid 3 and risk THAT silly result instead.
Oct. 4
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I would have thought that might be reasonable in Standard, but that Precision pairs would bid 2 (to avoid 2 facing 3-2-4-4) . But maybe you're right.
Oct. 4
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Don: If by “Mike” you mean me, my opinion is that each partnership needs to make rules governing what is and is not a forcing pass. Without that, you get hands like this, where some think it's forcing ('the janitor knows it') and some think it's not.

Knowing what you're doing is often more important that having what you're doing be optimal.
Oct. 4
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Predicting what this East (who bid 5) might or might not do reminds me of the sign outside the closed fortune-teller's shop. “Out of business due to unforeseen circumstances”.
Oct. 4
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OK. It seems weird to me to bid 2 on 5-4 - which might put us 2 or 3 cards under our longest fit, rather than bidding 2 which will put us at most one card under our longest fit
Oct. 4
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“When you are in a forcing pass, you sometimes make doubles with no real hope of setting the contract…”

If so, that's a pretty good indication that you would be better off if you were NOT be in a forcing pass situation.
Oct. 4
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No - I just don't do smiley faces. You need to imagine mine.
Oct. 4
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From the OP: “More likely they will balance if you rebid 2 of some m”

When would you ever rebid 2?
Oct. 4
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