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All comments by Mike Bell
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I take it you didn't read my post, immediately above yours. There are (at least) two valid answers and no obvious issues.
Sept. 17
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Related - in some quarters, it's considered inappropriate to lead up to the KJ and then think.

I disagree, because:
- Playing in a reasonable tempo and hoping that LHO flies ace is a legitimate tactic.
- If the AQ are in the same hand oppo will often be able to curtail your thinking, saving the table a few minutes.
- Both defenders are nervous, are in possession of one highcard and are aware of the position; maybe some can tell “I have the ace” nerves from “I have the queen” nerves but I can't imagine that's true for most.
Sept. 17
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I think the OP implies that, over a takeout double, South thinks 3 shows 1444, while North thinks it shows a 2.5 spade bid or similar. I would expect them to be more likely to have a misunderstanding over a “no agreement” double, not less likely. Certainly giving them 100% of +650 is overly generous.
Sept. 15
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Tank pass from West?
Sept. 9
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“…unless the second suit bid must be shorter than the first”.
Sept. 9
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Have added this as an option
Sept. 8
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Wouldn't it? Even if we assume that 3 was invitational, and that it should have been alerted, it sounds almost impossible that your side was damaged on this auction.
Aug. 27
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I prefer to agree that we always open 1 on this shape. The reason for this is that I want to feel comfortable raising 1 to 2 in competition on four-card support. Otherwise, it is harder for us to get to 3 or 5 when it is right, and a lot of responding hands have no sensible call after oppo make a 1 overcall.

That assumes our methods are fairly natural. Playing artificial methods (e.g. transfer responses to 1 and transfers in competition), I prefer to open 1 when holding 4D2C.
Aug. 25
Mike Bell edited this comment Aug. 25
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If you “normally always raise” then how do you plan to continue over 4SF to show something approximating to this?
Aug. 25
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The biggest reason to raise on this hand is that if I rebid 2, and partner makes an invitational rebid (2NT or 3m), I'm basically on a guess whether partner has a fifth spade or not. I agree there are drawbacks, though.
Aug. 24
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Deleted
Aug. 24
Mike Bell edited this comment Aug. 24
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You've lost me, sorry.
Aug. 24
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IMO either 2 or 2 should deny holding a minimum 3154, so for me there's no such thing as a “borderline choice”.
Aug. 24
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In clubs yes, in hearts no
Aug. 24
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X-IMPs
Aug. 23
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I'm pretty sure that initiating discussions about US vs RotW tipping is against Bridgewinners community guidelines.
Aug. 23
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Low to the king, low to the ten works 63% of the time
Aug. 22
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Jxx/Ax = 10.2%
Axx/Jx = 10.2%
AJxx/x = 8.5%

The issue with winning the ace from Ax too often is that playing low to the king, low to the queen becomes profitable when the ace hasn't yet made an appearance. For that to be the case you'd have to be winning the ace from Ax over 83% of the time.

(10.2-8.5)/10.2 = 1/6
Aug. 22
Mike Bell edited this comment Aug. 22
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Agree that “good 14” probably means more like 14.2 in my system.

Yes, I do think of a true 15-17 range as being 14.5-17.5, indeed I struggled slightly with references to a “three-point range” before I came to that conclusion!
Aug. 22
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IMO -

“15-17” should imply that you don't upgrade much more than you downgrade, at least on balanced hands (hands with a six-card suit are different). It certainly doesn't mean that you count your points and don't engage your brain.

If you upgrade into 1NT a lot, and downgrade out of it very rarely, “good 14” is appropriate for the lower bound.

I've heard people describe their ranges as e.g. “14.5-17”. I suspect this is meant to mean the same as “good 14-17” above but I'm not actually sure. Once you start using decimals, I would think an average 15 was worth 15.0, in which case 14.5-17.0 would mean that you upgrade 14s about as often as you downgrade 15s, but that you upgrade lots of 17s. I considered starting this discussion at the table but decided it was better to use our eight minutes to play the board instead.
Aug. 22
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