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All comments by Nicolas Hammond
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The point being that you put all the effort into the opening lead, but it is irrelevant from a double dummy perspective/scoring perspective.

This is a very boring hand to look at, seems trivial to take 11 tricks. Everyone played 4, but 6/13 declarers only took 10. Because of this it is a very interesting hand to look at from a matchpoint perspective. Why is there a discrepancy in the results?

This is how it was played - correctly - at one table:

http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?n=sK1053hJ53dA72cK103&e=sQ94hA1062d106cAQ98&s=sJ72h7dKJ984c7542&w=sA86hKQ984dQ53cJ6&d=n&b=13&v=b&a=P1DP1HP2HP4HPPP&p=H5H2H7H9HKH3H6D4CJCKCAC5HTC4HQHJC6C3C8C2CQC7S6CTC9D8S8S3


It shows the fickleness of matchpoints. If you were sitting NS and your declarer only took 10 tricks, you scored 75% on this board; if your declarer took 11 tricks, you scored 21%. That difference represents a full 1 % score difference in the final result.

I would assume that West would easily make 11 tricks. Not so. Of the 8 declarers sitting in the West seat, 4 took 10 tricks, 4 took 11. For East it becomes harder to risk making 11 tricks on a spade lead.

Declarer is the one that is making the decisions on matchpoints. Assuming declarer takes the club finesse, he has to watch the club spots and be willing to take the second club finesse against the 10.
Oct. 10, 2018
Nicolas Hammond edited this comment Oct. 10, 2018
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I never got hand records for any session. Guess they must have run out when we went outside. B10 onwards are from BBO; B1-9 are missing from BBO.
Oct. 10, 2018
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Also: 5N - I don't have the queen of trumps, or any Kings, but I do have some extras that might be useful for you.
Oct. 8, 2018
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Isn't that part of teaching it - when to use it and when not?

Here's a hammer, here's a screwdriver. Here's a nail - which tool? Here's a screw that is loose - who is it?
Oct. 8, 2018
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WBF has a practise of enforcing its by invitation only rule. BZ were not allowed to compete in Chennai. There was another pair in Chennai that come close to being disinvited; but the WBF powers that be erred on the side of caution. The WBF disinvited a pair that registered for Wroclaw - the dis-invitation was public.

There appears to be a lot of anti-WBF criticism in this thread; but the by invitation rule, and its enforcement, puts the WBF in a stronger position than other organisations.
Oct. 8, 2018
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If hearts is the agreed suit, then 4 (assuming no ambiguity) is best treated as the key card ask for hearts. It gives one more step. That being said…

After the 5 reply, showing 1 KC, East can bid 5 to ask about the trump Q. What East cares about is not really the trump queen, but the K. Bidding 5 allows West to show the K. Even if West does not have the trump queen, East is in a position to ask about the K assuming that both pairs have a sufficient understanding of “standard” RKC and its third/fourth round of bidding.

Even after 6, East can bid 6. Now it gets into your agreements on RKC and if this is asking about second or third round control in diamonds.

The blame goes to the person that failed to teach them RKC properly.

As others have pointed out, 5NT is promising all key cards and asking for extra tricks. West is offering one last try with K. East can make one last try with 6 but this may be getting into unchartered waters.

East is expecting too much from West for a grand.

Edit: I had West/East wrong way round. Also added more text to clarify.
Oct. 8, 2018
Nicolas Hammond edited this comment Oct. 8, 2018
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Very few people create their own set of responses; most go with the “standard” response.

In ACBL land Kantar's book has come to define “standard”:

Returning to the trump suit denies the queen.

As there is room to show a king in this sequence, 5 shows the queen and the K.

You have left out an important response: 5NT. This is defined in Kantar's book. This shows the trump queen, denies outside kings, but shows “extras” where the extras are defined. It also allows the RKC bidder to ask for third round control in the three other suits. This can be a very important step in finding a grand.
Oct. 8, 2018
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Bear in mind that Rona is Italian. Nuances of a second language are not always easy.
Oct. 8, 2018
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The correct process is for the video to be made public.

Anyone can then report the incident - it does not necessarily have to be the player(s) involved. The Bridge world is small. The opponents should not know who filed; they may assume but at their own peril.

As more video is made available; players need to be aware that this is a potential issue.

I had similar in the pairs. J lead. KQx in dummy. Waited normal ~ 10 seconds (pairs) for dummy. Called for the K. Long 50 second pair from RHO. Guess who has the Ace? Instant return of 10 by LHO when next in. There were no cameras. I didn't report. Would not have affected the play. Without video it becomes difficult to report.
Oct. 8, 2018
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There was a top player (not sure if one of the 20 WGM, but a well-known world class player) that presented testimony as part of the EBL case against FN. Unfortunately the panel found his evidence contradictory.
Oct. 8, 2018
Nicolas Hammond edited this comment Oct. 8, 2018
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The WBF pair events are (usually) 16 board sessions. They use boards 1-16 then 17-32 in the next session (the score card only goes up to 30 but that's a different story). 3 sessions/day. WBF can therefore use 1/2 set of boards for each session. WBF duplicators have about 3 hours from end of first session to duplicate the boards for the third session.

For each session WBF have to duplicate a set of boards for each table. They are placed on a side table and all players are trusted not to ‘peek’ at boards not played.

ACBL tends to have 26 board sessions. 2 sessions/day. ACBL can have far more entries than WBF events.

ACBL uses 8' centered tables (distance from center of one table to the next). WBF used 24' in Orlando. With 8' centered tables you can easily hear conversation at next table.

In WBF screens are in use. All alerts are hand-written (supposed to be). ((Sat down at one table, my opponent pointed to his double and loudly announced this one is take out. Tray goes under, comes back, he doubles again, and loudly announces without being asked - this double is for penalty - Bridge can be such an easy game)).

The price to play in the pairs events is the same in WBF/ACBL - $50/day/person.

Some ACBL regionals do have barometer pairs events.

The cost of running barometer is much higher for the organizer than the usual Howell movement.
Oct. 7, 2018
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OK…. so Orlando is over. I would like to get a copy of the hand records in non PDF format.

How do I do it?
Oct. 7, 2018
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If you have 8 hearts and the opponents have 8 spades, and both sides can take 8 tricks in their major; then the par result depends on vulnerability.

If you are vulnerable, and bid to the 3 level and are doubled you will score -200.

If you are not vulnerable, and bid to the 3 level and are doubled you will score -100. This is a better matchpoint score than letting the opponents make 8 tricks in spades (-110).
Oct. 5, 2018
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Conclusions:

In the original post I stated, “Publishing this data may taint future results”. For those that care, the fact that this data was published, along with some conclusions/suggestions, means that anyone who read this article, and made a choice based on those recommendations would affect future data. There are differences in the data from Day 3 and the rest of the week.

What no-one has pointed out is that in Wroclaw there were lots of Polish players. The common lead is low from a doubleton. This event is Orlando. Many more Americans. High from a doubleton is common. This difference in opening lead style will affect the data.

The top 7 most frequently led cards in Orlando were Aces and Kings. The K was in 12th spot. From Wroclaw, the K was the also the least led from the Aces and Kings. What is wrong with David?

Red aces do better than black aces. As predicted. I'll let you reason why.

Kings are bad (all less than 50%). Aces are good (all more than 50%). If ever you wanted to know what to lead from AK, the answer is the Ace.

The reason the Kings do poorly is most likely that the K is a common lead from KQx(x). Whenever I do it, declarer has the Ace and dummy the Jack. See Point 1 in the original post.

The least led card in Orlando was the CoS (51.64%) - Samantha please explain. The most led card was the A (50.84%). Once again, the least picked card by the humans did better than the most picked card. Which books are these humans reading?

Red eights? 8 - 49.65%, 8 - 49.00%.

Black nines? 9 - 50.32%, 9 - 51.36%.

BANNER leads work. It's on my card.

Spread from best card (4 - 54.55%) to worst card (6 - 46.02%) - 8.5%. Less spread than Wroclaw. To be expected. There is more data used than in Wroclaw. We expect the spread to be smaller.

Hammond leads - 9, 10, 9, J, Q, A, 3, 10, A

9 - 51.36%, 10 - 54.25%, 9 - 50.32%, J - 48.97%, Q - 49.99%, A - 52.40%, 3 - 53.45%, 10 - 49.47%, A - 52.59%.

6 out of 9 better than 50%, 2 worse.

The Hammond leads for Orlando are, in order, 4, 10, J, 3, 7, 10, 10, A, A.

In general the 10 lead seemed to do well, except the 10 - probably too close to the CoS?

The four 2s are in the top 15 most led cards in Orlando. They were in the top 23 in Wroclaw. See earlier comment about low from doubleton. In Orlando, more US players will lead low from Hxx(x).

How did my monkeys do? Not sure yet. Still need to get the hand records from WBF in a non PDF format. Waiting…

There is some seriousness behind all of this; but it's going to take some time for me to write up why.
Oct. 2, 2018
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It is the Bridgemate software that controls if the opening lead is entered. For ACBL tournaments, this is usually set to off. For WBF events, this is set to on. The Bridgemate software does not check that the card is in the hand of the opening leader. See article 2 years ago on % of mistakes.

I will suspect that the common error is the declarer. The user interface for Bridgemates makes it easy to get N/S or E/W wrong. However the UI for the lead is more intuitive and less prone to error. The presentation of the data above ignores the declarer. We assume that the data entered for the lead is correct. (Part of the problem from a statistically standpoint - we assume any errors in entry of cards is uniform - this is not likely to be the case).
Oct. 2, 2018
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Wrong. See page 8 of article from 2016. Interesting that perception is not reality. But… see caveat below.
Oct. 2, 2018
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From Honor (10 or 9) x, a standard “expert” lead is the 10 or 9. It's rarely documented, not on most convention cards, but generally accepted as a known “expert” lead.
Oct. 2, 2018
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Joking aside, the statistical presentation (i.e. the numbers) should be correct.

It is the interpretation that can be dubious. Which was part of the original purpose back in 2016 and the reason for this article.
Oct. 2, 2018
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Supposing your real name is Michael. But people call you Mickey. And of course, your last name is Mouse. And you are in California, and you go to your first tournament. You are not a member of ACBL but do OK:

https://live.acbl.org/event/1602005/701/1/summary

53% with Mary Ann.

And you get married; and, yup, your wife is Minnie. You move to the south east USA and see if you can get your wife interested. So you play social bridge in Atlanta:

https://live.acbl.org/event/1609032/3003/1/summary

You now live in Tennessee. And go to your first sectional as a couple.

https://live.acbl.org/event/1710034/2903/1/summary

You have a 61% game. But everyone makes fun of your name and you haven't played since.
Oct. 2, 2018
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