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All comments by Paul Dalley
1 2 3 4
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3rd seat NV opening of 1D and partner doubles… (S)he probably has diamond support.

Also the 2 might be suit preference because I don't think partner is leading from KQx on the bidding.

I think Q switch.


If for example you play 3 diamonds (declarer holding up) and then 4 hearts and have to pitch, pitching a diamond (if they are 4333) looks like 1 down which MIGHT not be a good score if your side is in 1NT making 8 tricks, or something like that. If you don't want to pitch a diamond the next option is a club. Because of partner's signal at trick 2 and because AKx(x) is less likely in the club suit than the spade suit.
Oct. 5
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10 at trick 1. If that doesn't work, cash AQ, if the j doesn't appear, play 3 rounds of hearts (ending in dummy). If they don't break, play for the A of spades to be in the hand that does not contain the 4th heart, so, if east is long in hearts then play a spade to the J, if west is long in hearts play a spade to the K.

That is a 30 second analysis, there might be a better line but I can't see a 100% line, I think the line I suggested is 90%+. Edit - 90% is wrong, its pretty high though.

(one point, don't play any diamonds as they are needed for entries).
Sept. 11
Paul Dalley edited this comment Sept. 11
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Yep exactly. Would just try to take a solid view on the heart distribution as thats the key to the end game, once the spade layout is known.

Edit: with Hx he may unblock by t he way, so its tough to read. Oh, unless you play small to dummy's honour first then duck one?
Aug. 28
Paul Dalley edited this comment Aug. 28
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Plan is to make 4 spades, 2 diamonds and then EITHER:
1) 4 clubs
2) 3 clubs and a heart trick because west is end played by the 3rd club, with only hearts to play back. (Note, West likely has AK of hearts, because probbaly they would've led t heir singleton otherwise - that is unless east preempted with 5).

First obstacle is not to let east in and give west a diamond ruff. So, to pick up Jx or H singleton with east, Cash A of spades and then play spade.

Then depending on how the spades break, play the clubs either by cashing an honour and finessing, or playing 3 rounds and throwing west in on the 3rd.

I guess to decide whether to finesse or play for the drop (if an honour falls on the first round), a view on wests shape will need to be taken, and that will depend what happens in spades (rather than just use restricted choice as a guide). The red suits look like 6-3 and 1-6 to me, although 5-4 hearts is certainly possible so try look for clues on that (discards etc).

edit: probably cash a second diamond before playing clubs, in case they are 5-2
Aug. 28
Paul Dalley edited this comment Aug. 28
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Really? How do you play it after a spade lead to the A then a low spade back? I'm starting to think its less than a 50% slam.

I mean suppose you draw 2 rounds of trumps and they don't break, what next? Club A and ruff a club? - well you will run out of entries. E.g. after the ruff, return to hand with the K, ruff a club, ruff another spade, draw trumps - now your hand has no entries (have ruffed twice and used the K of hearts). So do you need to cash the hearts and hope for a 3-3 break before doing all that?

Or do you play to ruff clubs first then draw trumps? Ok - now what? You can ruff 1 more spade before falling back on the heart break (you can't ruff 2 spades because you only have 2 entries to dummy, so you won't have a 3rd entry to enjoy the setup heart).

So what is your line? And even, if you like, consider it on a different lead - say a club or trump, I dont think you are much better off (especially since you will probably play a spade pretty early on, if not immediately). Ok seriously now I am going to sleep.
Aug. 25
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I'm about to go to sleep so I'm probably not seeing the obvious answer, but assuming diamonds are 2-2, what are the 12 tricks? (if spades and hearts don't break).
Aug. 25
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4 spades, 3 or less hearts, 12+ points, can't bid 3NT. possible hand:

K10xx
AJx
xx
KQxx
Aug. 25
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4 directly is a clear slam try. The sequence given in the poll was an attempt to play in 3NT. However, when 3NT wasn't possible, playing in 5 minor is a different story altogether. Good opposition will double you when appropriate, so there is serious reason to pass 4. (Or even if they don't double you, going 1 off or whatever is just bad bidding..)

Looking at it another way, pard has a hand that wanted to play in 3NT, so it is not a hand that is slam interested in clubs. (all rests on the inference that pard wouldve bid 4 directly with slam interest in clubs).
Aug. 24
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Paul F:

I agree with almost everything you said, except about emphatic doubles.

I'm not sure what that means (I'm not being sarcastic). What I am trying to say is - I agree that hand you gave is a good approximation of what partner should expect from your double. If partner then wants to use their own judgement and continue the bidding, in light of that information, then I don't think they should hesitate to, as there should be no emphasis/instance on a given contract. The purpose of bidding is to convey your hand accurately (which you have done) and in the process allow the partnership to make increasingly informed decisions towards the best contract. I mean, is pass even correct with the following reasonably normal hand?

KQJxxxx
Qx
QJx
x

Edit: or this hand I would be even more concerned passing.

KQJxxxx
AQ
xxx
x
Aug. 19
Paul Dalley edited this comment Aug. 19
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Yes but with AKJxxx and out I would bid 2 but I wouldn't double 3.

I can't imagine anything more necessary than a natural pass in that situation, so in my opinion it is not forcing. To me a forcing pass would also seem inconsistent with a 1 round force 2 bid. If 2 in your methods is GF then obviously pass is forcing.
Aug. 19
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In response to the high percentage of people that voted penalty-

In almost all auctions I think its a bad idea to think of doubles in terms of “penalty” and rather think of it in terms of candidate hands that you are bidding (and probably describing to your partner, rather than making a unilateral decision for where the contract should be played).

I'm genuinely confused about what a “penalty double” would look like - do you reserve it for hands where you have 4-5 solid club tricks?

I think East would have to be a seriously loose player to have as little as AJ9xxxx of the suit anyway (allowing for the penalty doubler to have KQ108x say, so against a good player (in my opinion) such instances don't even exist. KQJ987x looks like an absolute minimum holding in clubs for that Auction to me.

So if you aren't doubling on club holding, why not call it something like values rather than penalty?
Aug. 19
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Even if 2 was GF (I think standard for 2 there is 1 round force), I don't think X would be “penalty”.
Aug. 19
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What sort of hand has partner shown by the time s/he bid 3D and what would the difference have been if they jumped to 3D instead of bidding 2H? By the looks of this auction I would've passed 3D.
Aug. 19
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5 is probably a logical bid because it puts partner in a great position to evaluate whether 6M is on. Going - 100 in 5M is a serious possibility though, especially in light of the potentially bad breaks that are looming as a result of the probable 7 -3 club split. For that reason I don't think 4S or even 4H are ridiculous bids at all (yes 4 could easily be better than 4, but bidding it is a little bit too speculative in my opinion despite being slightly hinted to by the suit texture).
Aug. 15
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Well, if you are using 3 as a 3 card limit raise, illd say this hand just about fits that description? Being concerned about getting too high should happen when formulating the methods, not when using them, in my opinion.

I don't t hink that hand is worth any more than say 11-12 points. Its too soft in every way, only 3 trumps, no aces etc. The heart suit has a long way to go before yielding tricks, while trump control and entries seem very limited.

As for bidding hearts, at a glance I don't think it will help partner evaluate their hand, particularly since most of your points are outisde of hearts, e.g. if Pard has a void in hearts then 4 will be close to a sure thing, which would be hard to appreciate after a 2 bid. What are the other reasons to bid hearts? Its possible to get to a 6-3 fit that MIGHT be better than the 5-3 spade fit, but even thats not obvious since taking club ruffs in your hand might be the key. 6-4 fit? well Ill'd play 4 as a natural 4 card suit after 3 anyway, but once again even thats not clearly better than the spade fit.
Aug. 14
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Declarer is prob 6313 or 6214. I think ducking loses if pard has 109x(x) of clubs but otherwise it is better. If declarer has A9xx they may play the Q next round after you duck, otherwise you push declarer into a winning finesse.
July 13
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I agree with that, except opening this hand in my opinion is a winning action, but like everything, it has scenarios where it loses.

Imagine partner had something like this, KQxx x QJx xxxx - consider passing versing opening. It would probably be game by the side that opens.
July 11
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It would be critical for that bidding line that 4NT is to play. Because otherwise you are basically committing to slam by bidding 4, or an inferior contract to NT. Which is further evidence, in my opinion, why the bidding line is flawed - because 4NT is not to play there.
July 10
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Yes, because if you discuss what a minimum opener looks like you will never get to non-making game. (I'm being sarcastic).
July 10
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You don't need 16+ from partner for slam, you just need his points outside of clubs. A 4 card diamond fit and cards like these -K, kQ, QJ is what you need for slam. On the bidding pard prob has points in clubs, and more than just say A which isn't a convincing 3NT holding. i.e. with a non convincing 3NT holding, prob would've bid 4th suit.
July 9
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