Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Paul Dalley
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If partner passes 3D it might be okay, for example with this maximum:

Jxxx
Qxxx
x
KJxx

If however partner bids on, I think 3D is a pretty good starting point to get that hand across.
Dec. 19, 2018
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It doesn't look like EW had any special agreements or extra inferences beyond what the opponents had.

It is obviously essential for bridge that all partnership agreements as well as full inferences are disclosed to the opponents in good faith. This is quite an active role for a player that requires more than just answering questions. However, it is not reasonable to burden players with penalties when auctions occur that aren't perfectly systemic, especially when a player decides to use their judgement and improvise on a difficult-to-bid hand.

From the looks of this specific auction, east probably wanted to just play in 2D, but reevaluated the situation after the 3D bid bid by partner, which he interpreted to greater effect than the opponents did.

And/or EW just got luckier on the day than NS did, which is also a perfectly reasonable part of the game. E.g. EW could've easily gone for -500 on a different day. In such an event I doubt anyone would have suggested that EW did anything against the rules or unethical to earn their -500.
Dec. 15, 2018
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my point is that probably with a 5-5 declarer might've had some way of showing it.
Dec. 15, 2018
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It is not likely that declarer bid 4S on that shape.
Dec. 14, 2018
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If declarer has 5 diamonds, what holdings does P have that even need a promotion? Qx Only? And even if P does have Qx, if declarer has a losing club and is something like 6151 then its trading tricks isn't it?
Dec. 12, 2018
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It would probably just deny the Ace.
Dec. 10, 2018
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My guess is 75% or more of the time you will end up in 3NT. So obviously wrong siding the contract by bidding 2NT is not a good idea, and here that is a very high chance of happening for most of partner's spade and/or diamond holdings. One of the key points of bidding is to get to the correct contract, so the baby is going out with the bath water if you bid 2NT.

And anyway, if partner's hand isn't balanced then they have 5 clubs (cant be 4144), in which case Axx is worth a simple raise isn't it? (unless partner somehow misjduges the hand by reading you to have exactly 2524, because with any other 4 card support hand you would splinter).
Dec. 10, 2018
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deleted
Nov. 28, 2018
Paul Dalley edited this comment Nov. 28, 2018
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If partner passed 3rd in chair with 6 spades?
Nov. 6, 2018
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A computer somewhere probably. Just calculates the average expected value of each lead, over millions or billions of hands. What works on the individual hand is not as relevant, although maybe worth noting, especially if it was a reasonably predictable layout of shape/cards etc.

Over analysing the results on any single hand is probably a bad idea, it will probably skew an opinion of a lead. In other words, in my opinion it is wrong to phrase the question around whether we need to defend passively or not on this particular occasion, if you know that then rather use your talents on a roulette wheel.
Nov. 6, 2018
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Imagine partner has something as good as
AKxxx
xx
AKxxx
x

You have 3 losers. Im bidding 4S because I don't want to encourage partner (and I don't think 4 here is lead directional, even if a lead is better). If your hand was instead something like the below, then illd bid 4 probably, because your hand is somewhat useful.

Qxxxx
Axx
Kx
xxx

edit: oh and whats going on? I don't think that is the sort of bidding where opponents are likely to be bidding to the 5 level and pard wants to help you make a competitive decision (including a possible sacrifice), so it more so looks like a slam try.
Nov. 6, 2018
Paul Dalley edited this comment Nov. 6, 2018
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I led the 2
Nov. 6, 2018
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3rd seat NV opening of 1D and partner doubles… (S)he probably has diamond support.

Also the 2 might be suit preference because I don't think partner is leading from KQx on the bidding.

I think Q switch.


If for example you play 3 diamonds (declarer holding up) and then 4 hearts and have to pitch, pitching a diamond (if they are 4333) looks like 1 down which MIGHT not be a good score if your side is in 1NT making 8 tricks, or something like that. If you don't want to pitch a diamond the next option is a club. Because of partner's signal at trick 2 and because AKx(x) is less likely in the club suit than the spade suit.
Oct. 5, 2018
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10 at trick 1. If that doesn't work, cash AQ, if the j doesn't appear, play 3 rounds of hearts (ending in dummy). If they don't break, play for the A of spades to be in the hand that does not contain the 4th heart, so, if east is long in hearts then play a spade to the J, if west is long in hearts play a spade to the K.

That is a 30 second analysis, there might be a better line but I can't see a 100% line, I think the line I suggested is 90%+. Edit - 90% is wrong, its pretty high though.

(one point, don't play any diamonds as they are needed for entries).
Sept. 11, 2018
Paul Dalley edited this comment Sept. 11, 2018
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Yep exactly. Would just try to take a solid view on the heart distribution as thats the key to the end game, once the spade layout is known.

Edit: with Hx he may unblock by t he way, so its tough to read. Oh, unless you play small to dummy's honour first then duck one?
Aug. 28, 2018
Paul Dalley edited this comment Aug. 28, 2018
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Plan is to make 4 spades, 2 diamonds and then EITHER:
1) 4 clubs
2) 3 clubs and a heart trick because west is end played by the 3rd club, with only hearts to play back. (Note, West likely has AK of hearts, because probbaly they would've led t heir singleton otherwise - that is unless east preempted with 5).

First obstacle is not to let east in and give west a diamond ruff. So, to pick up Jx or H singleton with east, Cash A of spades and then play spade.

Then depending on how the spades break, play the clubs either by cashing an honour and finessing, or playing 3 rounds and throwing west in on the 3rd.

I guess to decide whether to finesse or play for the drop (if an honour falls on the first round), a view on wests shape will need to be taken, and that will depend what happens in spades (rather than just use restricted choice as a guide). The red suits look like 6-3 and 1-6 to me, although 5-4 hearts is certainly possible so try look for clues on that (discards etc).

edit: probably cash a second diamond before playing clubs, in case they are 5-2
Aug. 28, 2018
Paul Dalley edited this comment Aug. 28, 2018
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Really? How do you play it after a spade lead to the A then a low spade back? I'm starting to think its less than a 50% slam.

I mean suppose you draw 2 rounds of trumps and they don't break, what next? Club A and ruff a club? - well you will run out of entries. E.g. after the ruff, return to hand with the K, ruff a club, ruff another spade, draw trumps - now your hand has no entries (have ruffed twice and used the K of hearts). So do you need to cash the hearts and hope for a 3-3 break before doing all that?

Or do you play to ruff clubs first then draw trumps? Ok - now what? You can ruff 1 more spade before falling back on the heart break (you can't ruff 2 spades because you only have 2 entries to dummy, so you won't have a 3rd entry to enjoy the setup heart).

So what is your line? And even, if you like, consider it on a different lead - say a club or trump, I dont think you are much better off (especially since you will probably play a spade pretty early on, if not immediately). Ok seriously now I am going to sleep.
Aug. 25, 2018
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I'm about to go to sleep so I'm probably not seeing the obvious answer, but assuming diamonds are 2-2, what are the 12 tricks? (if spades and hearts don't break).
Aug. 25, 2018
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4 spades, 3 or less hearts, 12+ points, can't bid 3NT. possible hand:

K10xx
AJx
xx
KQxx
Aug. 25, 2018
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4 directly is a clear slam try. The sequence given in the poll was an attempt to play in 3NT. However, when 3NT wasn't possible, playing in 5 minor is a different story altogether. Good opposition will double you when appropriate, so there is serious reason to pass 4. (Or even if they don't double you, going 1 off or whatever is just bad bidding..)

Looking at it another way, pard has a hand that wanted to play in 3NT, so it is not a hand that is slam interested in clubs. (all rests on the inference that pard wouldve bid 4 directly with slam interest in clubs).
Aug. 24, 2018
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