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All comments by Paul Hightower
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Certainly, there are hands where hearts, diamonds or clubs would be better than notrump, especially if partner has two spades. But partner has not asked us to guess such things. Anything but pass smacks of masterminding.
13 hours ago
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An alternative is the Rule of 2, 3 and 4: 2 tricks vul vs. not, 3 tricks at equal vul, 4 tricks not vul against vul. But I can't recall the last time I bothered to calculate such things; I pretty much know what a preempt looks like.
14 hours ago
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OK, no one buys the method. As it happened, I doubled before thinking much about the vulnerability, LHO bid Stayman, partner bid 2 on A9xx and out, and the opps let him scramble 8 tricks while our teammates bid the heart game, +12 imps. Repeated trump leads (from xxxx, stiff King in the slot) would probably have set us a trick, but clearly with the Stayman bid they should've found game.

I posted this for feedback on whether I was being too pushy (despite the lucky result) but oh well. Let me emphasize that I did not adopt the method as some sort of sucker-killer device; the original was touted as proven effective in top-flight competition. However, the original requirement of 11 hcp at all vulnerabilities came up too infrequently so we decided to loosen things up.
23 hours ago
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No selective amnesia, Eric: I have no trouble remembering getting hammered on weak twos, overcalls, sacrifices, and game bids. Just hasn't happened yet with this gadget. Two places to play seems to offer a surprising degree of safety, along with the fear most players have of doubling part-scores. In a strong field I'd expect a lot of redoubles followed by penalty doubles.
23 hours ago
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An option not included in the poll, therefore I abstained.
Jan. 15
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To improve our score? We've had far more gains than losses with the method. To be fair, club players generally don't know what the blue and red cards are for.
Jan. 15
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Of course – but that's true of almost all hands, isn't it? It is also possible to collect a number. We've had excellent results with the method prior to this hand; I was curious whether this was too pushy. Apparently the consensus is that the entire method is too pushy.
Jan. 15
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I would try a forcing club with 1NT promising 4 or 5 clubs and 0-3 diamonds (11-15 hcp.) This eliminates the need for the Precision 2 opening, and would largely be simple and natural.
Jan. 14
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@Kieran – I raised to 4. That looks like the best matchpoint spot opposite a variety of hands. Notrump, of course, may be best if the clubs run, but we have no reason to assume that.
Jan. 14
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Partner may hold AQxx x Axx KQxxx.
Jan. 14
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I think that if I had a hand that would expect to make 5 opposite this collection, I'd've bid 6.
Jan. 14
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Extra values have long been claimed to favor notrump, so I can't read much into your 23 to 32 point analysis. I would certainly have broken that up. Perhaps fix responder at 9, 12 and 15 to see if there is a shift toward notrump.
Jan. 14
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Playing my preferred style, partner's hand would be no surprise, but could easily be weaker. Could partner have had the same hand without the A? Then you'd need luck not to go down in 3. I've had partners open 2 at this vulnerability on QJxxxx and a side J. That's why most are passing here, But I think 2 is best played as a constructive bid, with preemption a side benefit. And preemption tends to be more effective when you have 8-10 hcp; then either opponent may not have quite enough to act, or will be disappointed in their partner's cards. For me, a first or second seat weak two should have 6 hcp in the suit OR a fair suit and 8-10 hcp.
Jan. 13
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So the auction is 1-(pass)-2-(dbl). We have the chance to act now (bid, pass or redouble) or wait and back in. I think almost any hand with extra shape would act immediately, and it seems safer to redouble than to wait. Perhaps redouble ought to be 18+ (setting up a penalty double of any sacrifice bid) but that isn't clear to me.
Jan. 13
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Let' say our hand is KJ876 104 AK6 K97 . Can you explain how to apply Lawrence=Wigren principles to this specific case?
Jan. 13
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At IMPs I doubt I would double very often on 14 hcp. Were you thinking matchpoints?
Jan. 13
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We know we have exactly 8 spades. The opponents coud have anywhere from 7 to 9 hearts; if they have ten partner will certainly act so we can ignore that case. 16 total trumps tends to yield more than 16 total tricks at the table, but 5332 tends to reduce the total, so I think we can estimate 16 total tricks. So our inclination should be to defend. However, the nature and dispersion of our honors could influence the decision. I'm certainly not doubling on an Aceless hand, or with AKQJxx in spades.
Jan. 13
Paul Hightower edited this comment Jan. 13
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We might, partly because game could be there, but also in order to blaokc a cheap spade bid.
Jan. 13
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Is 1NT 8-10?
Jan. 12
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It might help to know what the replies to 2NT mean.
Jan. 12
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