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Well I passed this for similar reasons and got a bad result when opener rebid 1N and I had to pass that out.
That's an auction where X obviously rates to be a winner (subject to P having 4 spades), but I struggle to think of any others - if the opps bid on freely, I'll be upset at having helped them pinpoint the honours (esp at MPs), and if LHO rebids 2-red I'm willing to X if it comes around to me. I can't imagine 4♠ being a sensible sac against 4♥, so it seemed to me like an X now was trying to hit too small a target.
I suppose I wouldn't be thrilled about defending 2♣ if that came back to me.
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On most hands where the club suit is relevant, I would expect 3♣ to make it harder for P to evaluate his hand, not easier. As Alan mentioned, QJx would look excellent, also Kxx would look good, Jxx promising, and x or xx would look rubbish.
Once in a while it might deter the opps from leading from Ax (I don't know what opps you have who'd be leading from Kx or Qx without the active deterrent), but other times P might raise on four-card holdings, telegraphing the lead for the guy holding four of the suit.
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As for useful systems, I'm still partial to my own *cough*Fantunes*cough* variant, which lets you open this a natural 1♦, show a strong hand over P's natural 1♥ response, hear a negative from P, and then continue with a natural and forcing 3♣. That would elicit a little shiver of joy when you realise how everyone else's auctions would have started.
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P had something like x xx xxxx AJTxxx. When I passed as per the current majority, he doubled and we took them for 300 instead of bidding our cold slam.
In retrospect I feel like I should have bid - he's quite likely to have a spade void on the opps' bidding and the club ace on his own, and either makes slam look reasonable - he surely doesn't have two spades, and even in Acol would raise with 3 hearts, so he's got 10+ cards in the minors - and we can be fairly confident he doesn't have a single suiter with diamonds, so a 9 card club fit is strongly odds on, which should give us decent prospects of setting up the hearts even on a 4-1/4-2 split
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I bid 3♥, and partner put down Qx x QJTxx KTxxx. Hearts split badly, and I couldn't make more than 5 tricks (thankfully undoubled). Had I Xed, P's 2N would be Leb rather than a scramble, but on the lie of the cards, even 3♣ was cold.
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With a 5S-4H min, he'd have rebid 2♥ rather than 2♣ (also min hands with 6♠ would have rebid 2♠, and min hands with 3♦ would have rebid 2♦, in descending preference order. So strictly speaking, if he has the weak hand he'll have at least 2 and probably 3 clubs). ‘Min’ in this context would be anything shy of a hand that would GF over a positive 2♦ response to Gazzilli, so approx (14)15-17
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You are (although on that hand I'd be wavering over bidding 2♠ instead)
After 2♦ there's not much sophistication. P can rebid 2♠ to show any minimum (in this context that would be 16-17ish. He could have opened with slightly less, but would usually have passed 1N). Any other bid by him is GF (2N being a catchall - 3-level bids show 5-5 or better distribution). Over his 2♠ rebid, responder's actions are natural and constructive, NF. Immediate jump shifts would have been splinters, so invitational hands with a long minor have to go via 1N.
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As long as you've got a P who knows to be circumspect when raising as a passed hand, passing here has substantial negative EV.
You've got next to no chance of being penalised when W has such wealth (how many 18+ counts would risk a penalty-seeking pass?), and with 29+ points, the chances that they have slam are high. Don't give them room to find out.
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Partner is captaining this auction, not me. Bidding 4N would not tell him whether or not I have the hand he wants for slam, merely drive us there if the KC requirement alone were satisfied.
And for all intents and purposes, the trump queen is a keycard, so I have 4.
Sasha Cooper
I think I'd feel happier about doubling with that - it looks like a hand with substantially better ODR than ours.
Sasha Cooper
That's an auction where X obviously rates to be a winner (subject to P having 4 spades), but I struggle to think of any others - if the opps bid on freely, I'll be upset at having helped them pinpoint the honours (esp at MPs), and if LHO rebids 2-red I'm willing to X if it comes around to me. I can't imagine 4♠ being a sensible sac against 4♥, so it seemed to me like an X now was trying to hit too small a target.
I suppose I wouldn't be thrilled about defending 2♣ if that came back to me.
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
Once in a while it might deter the opps from leading from Ax (I don't know what opps you have who'd be leading from Kx or Qx without the active deterrent), but other times P might raise on four-card holdings, telegraphing the lead for the guy holding four of the suit.
Sasha Cooper
I make it closer to 32-33% fwiw, depending on how much a good break in one suit improves the chances of a good break in another
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
4♣ 5♣
6♣
Partner put down this beauty:
xxxx
xxxx
x
Jxxx
Certainly a better contract than 6♥, but that was little consolation for the predictable -1.
Sasha Cooper
xxxx
xxxx
x
Jxxx
It ‘had play’, but that was little consolation for the predictable -1.
Sasha Cooper
In retrospect I feel like I should have bid - he's quite likely to have a spade void on the opps' bidding and the club ace on his own, and either makes slam look reasonable - he surely doesn't have two spades, and even in Acol would raise with 3 hearts, so he's got 10+ cards in the minors - and we can be fairly confident he doesn't have a single suiter with diamonds, so a 9 card club fit is strongly odds on, which should give us decent prospects of setting up the hearts even on a 4-1/4-2 split
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
Passing 2♠ is allowed (and fairly common).
Sasha Cooper
After 2♦ there's not much sophistication. P can rebid 2♠ to show any minimum (in this context that would be 16-17ish. He could have opened with slightly less, but would usually have passed 1N). Any other bid by him is GF (2N being a catchall - 3-level bids show 5-5 or better distribution). Over his 2♠ rebid, responder's actions are natural and constructive, NF. Immediate jump shifts would have been splinters, so invitational hands with a long minor have to go via 1N.
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
Sasha Cooper
You've got next to no chance of being penalised when W has such wealth (how many 18+ counts would risk a penalty-seeking pass?), and with 29+ points, the chances that they have slam are high. Don't give them room to find out.
Sasha Cooper
And for all intents and purposes, the trump queen is a keycard, so I have 4.