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I think the fact that game is making opposite a minimum tells you that you should be bidding on with that hand. The most this hand changed and for me to still bid 2C is to swap the diamond jack for the ten.

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I think in most examples in the books it's just a ‘simple squeeze without the count’, but I think in real life, you nearly always have to squeeze them out of exit cards.

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Probability that the ‘vanilla’ line of playing for the ♠K onside, with spades breaking 3-2 or 2-3 and diamonds 3-3: 11 vacant spaces in each hand (the opening leader has JT of hearts, the other hand followed to the first heart and must have KS). 1) Spade king with East. 50% 2) Remaining spades 2-2 with diamonds 3-3 or 3-1 with diamonds 3-3. 24.70% So the probability of this line working is 12.35%.

I can't even begin to calculate Will's line to anything like 2 decimal places for a couple of reasons. The main thing being that hearts are unlikely to be 4-4 given that we know the opening leader has both of the JT, not to mention that they have the 9 a fair percentage of the time. Since I am not capable of working out how often they choose to lead from JT9x but not JTxx, I'll be a bit more rough.

1) Club finesse works. 50% 2) Hearts 4-4 given opening leader has JT and the other defender followed to the first round, spades 3-2 or 2-3. Roughly 24% 3)You guess the ending correctly. ???

This is all kind of moot, because we didn't really talk about clubs being 4-3 the other way round, in which case I think you get some similar endings but haven't looked into it.

Which of the options should you take, having decided to take Will's line? Option 1 is clearly out, because if spades are 2-3, it is more likely that the spade king is with the 3 card holding than the two card holding (yes, there are some lead implications, but let's ignore them). Option 3 looks best since you can make it wherever the KS is, and 2434 is East's most likely shape given that hearts are 4-4 and clubs 3-4 (about 43%).

But forget all the numbers, nobody seems to have pointed out that we have a very real misdefence chance: If you start with a spade to the Q (holds), ♠A. ♦AK, ruff a diamond, and West has 3 spades and two diamonds, they might just overuff, and now you have the entries to establish the diamonds, and can make if the club finesse is working.

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

11 vacant spaces in each hand (the opening leader has JT of hearts, the other hand followed to the first heart and must have KS).

1) Spade king with East. 50%

2) Remaining spades 2-2 with diamonds 3-3 or 3-1 with diamonds 3-3. 24.70%

So the probability of this line working is 12.35%.

I can't even begin to calculate Will's line to anything like 2 decimal places for a couple of reasons. The main thing being that hearts are unlikely to be 4-4 given that we know the opening leader has both of the JT, not to mention that they have the 9 a fair percentage of the time. Since I am not capable of working out how often they choose to lead from JT9x but not JTxx, I'll be a bit more rough.

1) Club finesse works. 50%

2) Hearts 4-4 given opening leader has JT and the other defender followed to the first round, spades 3-2 or 2-3. Roughly 24%

3)You guess the ending correctly. ???

This is all kind of moot, because we didn't really talk about clubs being 4-3 the other way round, in which case I think you get some similar endings but haven't looked into it.

Which of the options should you take, having decided to take Will's line?

Option 1 is clearly out, because if spades are 2-3, it is more likely that the spade king is with the 3 card holding than the two card holding (yes, there are some lead implications, but let's ignore them).

Option 3 looks best since you can make it wherever the KS is, and 2434 is East's most likely shape given that hearts are 4-4 and clubs 3-4 (about 43%).

But forget all the numbers, nobody seems to have pointed out that we have a very real misdefence chance:

If you start with a spade to the Q (holds), ♠A. ♦AK, ruff a diamond, and West has 3 spades and two diamonds, they might just overuff, and now you have the entries to establish the diamonds, and can make if the club finesse is working.

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt

What suit are the opponents attempting to play in? Spades.

You should be a happy man.

There is also the fact that partner is a passed hand, and has failed to act with a spade void.

Shahzaad Natt

Shahzaad Natt