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Initially, I wanted to bid 2N for the minors to favor a saccing position. However, thinking more of the hand, 2N enables unusual vs unusual to the opponents placing me on lead after 3♣ (Showing ♥) or 3♦ (showing ♠) is bid by west, while 3♣ pretty much forces west to bid his suit and partner be on the lead. If ♠ becomes the trump suit, then I will have a lightner X for partner to find the ♥ lead.

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It is true that the principle of restricted choice involves considering a 1/2 chance of an expert player to randomize two equal cards.

However, in this situation the K is forced regardless of seeing to Q or the J of trump. Thus the poll if it's better to play for 2-2 or 1-3 break. It's probably not called a restricted choice then.

Yes, the K is forced with K10 doubleton as all of you have pointed out.

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Of course leading J of trumps is better here! But considering the Q of trump instead I want to know if this falls into 66% (as in restricted choice) - Voting yes ; or 50/50 any guess is as good as any - voting no.

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

1♦ (P) 1♥ (X)

2♦ (P) 3♦

Should be GF, vs:

1♦ (P) 1♥ (X)

2♦ (P) 2♠ (P)

??? (P) 3♦

Would be Invitationnal?

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Assuming you are playing for 4 tricks:

With Kxx / 10x, the hand will play by itself as the 10 drops, so we don't count it in our analysis.

With K10x / xx or K10xx/x, you always lose a trick, so we don't count it in our analysis.

With K / 10762, you always lose a trick, so we don't count it in our analysis. (If you play low, opps play the 6, if you play 8, opps cover the 10)

So the only relevant situations are:

Kx / 10xx

K10 / xxx

Where you play for doubleton King! Odds favor the finesse.

So:

Wins with K2, K6, K7

Loses with K10

So I presume this is 75% chance on the finesse?

Someone please confirm the exact odds?

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

However, in this situation the K is forced regardless of seeing to Q or the J of trump. Thus the poll if it's better to play for 2-2 or 1-3 break. It's probably not called a restricted choice then.

Yes, the K is forced with K10 doubleton as all of you have pointed out.

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte

With 4 cards of ♠ I will be at ease of bidding 4♠

Stéphane Turcotte

Stéphane Turcotte