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All comments by Wayne Burrows
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Or even uncertainty about the meaning.
Dec. 3, 2018
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It is safe against 7nt.
Dec. 3, 2018
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Amy except that in many cases north will have dKQ or similar and a diamond would be normal.
Dec. 3, 2018
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The obvious construction is solid hearts KQJxx AKQJx etc. Now you can count ten major suit tricks. So two aces and a singleton makes 13. Solid hearts are needed because east might have xxx or Axx for this bidding.
Dec. 3, 2018
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Whether or not it is blatantly obvious that west was void is different than it is blatantly obvious to lead a diamond.

A 10% or 20% chance of a void might make it obvious to lead a diamond but equally make it ludicrous to put in the ten.
Dec. 3, 2018
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Amy, I am not going to hold my breath.
Dec. 3, 2018
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“That ace is going to be diamonds. ”

This is not demonstrable from the information of the slow pass.

A player holding any ace that did not match their agreement for double might pass slowly as might a player who is unsure that a double might misdirect partner to the wrong suit.
Dec. 3, 2018
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“Kit, where I come from a void is a nice substitute for an Ace, when playing a suit contract. I guess you top quality players see things differently? I’m glad I’m not bad enough to be a top quality player like that.”

All true except that I keep reminding one partner that I have never won a trick with a void.

And that is the error that Joe Grue made.
Dec. 3, 2018
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Equally if double of 7NT promises something else then pass does not deny an ace.

Also if you are unsure whether double might promise something else then pass might not deny an ace if you are scared from deflecting partner unnecessarily.

I have been in the situation where my partner doubled 7NT and I led the suit which I thought she was requesting (Lightner) and I did not find her ace. She would have been better off to pass - I might then have led to her ace and would not have led the Lightner suit.
Dec. 3, 2018
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David they might still be able to double if they think the spade lead will not matter. The double is only costly if declarer has thirteen tricks without the killing lead.

But the point that no double does not deny an ace is valid.
Dec. 3, 2018
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I seriously cannot believe that you are unaware of the possibility of bidding Blackwood with a void after partner has denied a control. I have seen this use many times. It makes perfect logical sense as the denial of a control makes the auction unambiguous.
Dec. 3, 2018
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Moreover, if a pollee does not appreciate that the diamond ace has not been promised then I would question the validity of the assertion that they are a peer of the player at table.
Dec. 3, 2018
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Kit, this is not an auction where the opponents can be presumed to hold all of the aces. In particular neither opponent promised the diamond ace.
Dec. 3, 2018
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If you believe the BIT can only be because south has an ace. Then the information does not suggest a diamond lead.

On this hand Joe Grue made a mistake correcting to 7NT on the assumption that Bobby Levin had the A. On another hand their might have been a mix up with Blackwood and any ace or key card could have been missing.

Therefore you cannot demonstrate that the BIT suggests a diamond lead.

It is not the UI that suggests a diamond lead it is the authorised information. Neither east nor west promised the A. Bidding 4NT with a void after partner has denied a control in that suit is a situation that comes up a lot when playing 1st or 2nd round controls. Partner bypasses your void suit and suddenly you have a great hand in context and can comfortably bid Blackwood as you now know the response will be unambiguous with regard to your void suit.

On this authorised information a diamond lead is clearly suggested. Grue's correction to 7NT is completely independent of whether or not Levin has the A as he has no knowledge of whether that card is held. My estimate is that there is around a 10-15% chance of Levin not having the A. Some, a significant amount, of the rest of the time there is no cost to the diamond lead - partner might have the queen or Levin might have the stiff ace or the opponents might simply have 13 tricks without a diamond lead.

Without the UI, I think that a diamond is clear cut. Any other lead is going to be giving up on many layouts.

I do not accept that anyone can demonstrate that the information contained in a slow pass suggests a diamond over another logical alternative.

The polling for logical alternatives was severely flawed when there does not seem to be any attempt to establish the methods of the NS pair and some answers were probably dependent on a belief that south would double to show the A.
Dec. 3, 2018
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I hope the scar is not permanent.
Dec. 2, 2018
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The logic escapes me.
Dec. 2, 2018
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David Grainger's comment above is gives an excellent argument for why west is unlikely to have the A.

Nevertheless, I simulated this auction to look at hands where a diamond lead would work and where it would fail. Even my most naive simulations had a diamond lead as a favourite given the information that west had either the diamond ace or a diamond void. Essentially, the possibility of a diamond void was so significant that it far outweighed any chance of taking this contract down with a passive lead in another suit.

When David's arguments are factored in then a diamond lead is an even bigger favourite. Many of the hands where 7NT was making on a diamond lead would or should and therefore could have been bid differently by west and therefore should not have been part of my simulation.

Whatever else comes of this situation, I would hope that the practical interpretation of logical alternative is given a good looking at by those who make these decisions. It is not good enough that some are polled and say that they would not lead a diamond because partner would have doubled and their views are taken into account when it has not been established that this is the method of the partnership.

Secondly, I hope that the procedures for determining that something is demonstrably suggested are improved.
Dec. 2, 2018
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Of course the polling must include the meaning of pass over 4d.
Dec. 2, 2018
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You missed a vital step the break in tempo must demonstrably suggest a diamond lead.

I still have not heard an argument that demonstrates this.
Dec. 2, 2018
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There is often no necessity to double.
Dec. 2, 2018
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