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All comments by Will Roper
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“You’ll need the holder of the third trump to have at most three hearts.
If West has the third trump and four diamonds, you make as long as he has no more than any three hearts. After setting up the diamonds, you ruff another heart to play a diamond winner in a four-card ending squeezing East in hearts and clubs.”

No this doesn't work due to entries. On QA you now play AK and ruff a diamond, ruff a heart, ruff a diamond now you can ruff a heart and play a diamond? (Correct me if it is a different line) Now West gets in with the ruff and exits a rounded suit. Even if they have to exit a club you only have 4, 2, 3, 2.

“If East has the third trump and four diamonds, you make when he has a short king of hearts.”

Assume from this you mean Kx heart as it doesn't work with Kxx? I.e LHO has 6 love all and hasn't bid NV in a relay auction…even if that is correct the probability is small.
Jan. 28, 2016
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“I think you can make this with 3-2 spades and the hook working with either 33 diamonds or 42 diamonds and the club onside. ”

See my comment above. 4-2 doesn't work
Jan. 27, 2016
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I don't know if this has been mentioned but there is a danger that the hand with short diamonds might throw a club?
Jan. 27, 2016
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Just because I am poor with odds and so forth can you print your rough calculations (so I can poke more holes in them :P)

As a sidenote I personally would rather have the ability to guess the K's location than having a fixed percentage line.

Also whilst on the mathematics. Vacant spaces…. I know that you cannot use vacant spaces for a suit not yet known. But say we needed hearts 4-4. Could we assume VS of 6-5 or does it remain at 10-9 (only clubs known)?
Jan. 27, 2016
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“Also, with that line you survive a 4-2 diamond break if club finesse is also on. So, all told, the chances might be near 20% with two rounds of trumps followed by diamonds.”

Whilst I appreciate you trying to put some numbers to it, I don't think this statement is correct.

If diamonds are 4-2 the you don't have the entries to set up diamonds. You don't have enough entries to cross ruff and finesse the clubs.

In a nutshell the hand is just falling to pieces.
Jan. 27, 2016
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Problem is this only works if diamonds are 3-3. Your entries are not enough otherwise. See Bernard's comment above
Jan. 27, 2016
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After several minutes of quizzing we got these agreements.
“UDCA, generally count unless attitude asked for”
“No specific agreements regarding slams, don't tend to help opps by carding unless clearly needed”

as to which card it was the 3 I believe (75% certain).
Jan. 27, 2016
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Agreed :)

Next Q: Is this percentage?
Jan. 27, 2016
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Thanks Jon. As usual my initial thoughts (under leading spades) turn out to be better than anything that follows :)
Jan. 27, 2016
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@Steve:

Regarding the signal (I asked if meant as count/Suit Pref):

“No just discouraging. Don't really approve of randomly switching signals. It just isn't clear enough to P 99% of the time.”

The bidding wasn't great. But I am not accountable for that.
Jan. 27, 2016
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Who knows. I never put partner with QT to 8 I will be honest. I thought QTxxxx as long as he had stiff club might be plausible.
Jan. 26, 2016
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Say dummy turns up with Ax, Kx in the red suits. Wins the A and then plays a minor. What now?
Jan. 26, 2016
Will Roper edited this comment Jan. 26, 2016
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Just so people have the full picture.

Partners hand was:
92
8
QT876543
T4
<>

Declarers:
Q5
QJ5432
J
Q972

3Nx was -1 on my defence rightly or wrongly of A and another small spade. Slightly annoying that we could have taken the first 11 tricks. +200 scored 2/3 of the MPs due to the field getting to a making 5. On a heart lead a reasonable declarer might win and try to set up a spade trick. Will you find the diamond switch now?
Jan. 26, 2016
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Doubling was the tightest call I made on this hand. My thought process was that my defence to 3N looks far more than my defence to 3. However if 3 goes off then I might be able to collect an extra 100 which is useful.

I had worked out the A lead before the double obviously. As stated above I had seriously considered a small spade hoping to find KQxxx on dummy. However I felt it was more like that honours were split. Maybe such an active lead is wrong (If it was clearly right I wouldn't be asking :) .

I do believe from this that you cannot double and then lead passively. I.e if you double then you are forced into the active lead as otherwise the opps have a blueprint of your hand.



Jan. 26, 2016
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Hi Frances,

Thanks for your thoughts. A while back you highly recommended Martens works to the junior squad. One of the main reasons I am intrigued in this hand is that it bears a striking resemblance to one of the scenarios from his Guide dog defence book (Page 157). In it Martens stipulates that when full count of a suit is basically known to defenders then leading/signalling Suit Preference is more useful.

Obviously with a PuP you will assume Rev Att, but in a regular partnership doesn't this bear some thought?

On the actual hand I do not know why declarer (who isn't as good a bidder as you) cannot have something like:
Kxxxx
A
KQJ
JTxx
<>
Qx
KQJxx
x
Qxxxx

Obviously this is heavily made up (in about 20 seconds) but these hands fit v roughly in with the bidding. What I am trying to say is I don't understand how we can build a 5th trick from anywhere except based on the partners obvious lack of cards. At the table I thought about under leading A on this principle hoping to find KQ in dummy. Seemed a bit heavy though.
Jan. 26, 2016
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and if declarer plays clubs?
Jan. 26, 2016
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Any lead can cost this contract. My question to you is this. Why can't declarer have 4-5 tricks or 3 slow diamond tricks?
Jan. 26, 2016
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Then what do you lead?
Jan. 26, 2016
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“Will, as far as I can see you have no normal game raise.”

X then 4
Jan. 25, 2016
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In Andy's sequence it is ok to push on. Partner either thinks he can make 4 opposite a weak raise or has some extra shape to push the sac which warrants some investigation.

Kit's sequence is more problematic as Dbl could be a negative double with values unsure how to proceed. However it is still the best option out of a bad bunch.

Personally if I played this way I would reverse the initial 4 and the bid we are discussing.
I.e:
1-(3)-?
Dbl = Spade raise (competitive) or etc etc
3 = Invite NF
4 = Serious Slam try
4 = Mild Slam try/Good raise with 3 depending on your preference

This has the benefit that the competitive hands are grouped together and therefore the competition by opps is “irrelevant” in the decision making process. Also slightly easier on the memory I would guess.

Edit: It does also have the drawback that they might be able to double you more easily in 4 on the hands which now Dbl. However this unlikely to be that severe. Also there is a point that jumping to 4 with a good hand. Opps might double not realising you are in a solid auction.
Jan. 25, 2016
Will Roper edited this comment Jan. 25, 2016
.

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